Containing chaos
With two summits in the region next week Arab diplomacy has moved into overdrive, reports
Dina Ezzat
A limited Arab-American meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, hosted by President Hosni Mubarak and expected to take place on Wednesday, will bring together US President George W Bush together with the heads of state of Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. The following day King Abdullah of Jordan, together with the prime ministers of Palestine and Israel, will meet with the US president in Aqaba.
The Sharm El-Sheikh meeting presents an opportunity for frank discussions between the participants. And while the agenda of the meeting has yet to be finalised two topics are certain to dominate -- the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iraq.
The implementation of the roadmap in an equitable -- though not necessarily equal -- fashion that allows both Palestinian and Israeli governments the opportunity to sell it to their respective constituencies will certainly be near the top of the agenda.
"There is a realisation on the Arab side that Washington will put no pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to live up to the real requirements of peace. But there is also an understanding that Washington deems it in its interest for things to move at least a little and this is what we will seek to capitalise on," commented one informed source.
As for Iraq, Arab diplomats have few illusions about what they can expect from the Americans. It is understood in most Arab capitals there is nothing they can say or do that will dampen Washington's determination to maintain the military occupation of Iraq for at least two years. Indeed, judging by statements made by some diplomats, there is a belief in some quarters that a medium term US military presence is necessary to facilitate an emerging stability.
"We cannot just repeat slogans about ending the occupation. We have to be realistic about what the Iraqis will do in the absence of any legitimate government or security system if the Americans pulled out in a few months. Are we, as Arab states, willing to fill the vacuum that will result in this case?" asked one Gulf diplomat.
What Arab leaders will be hoping to hear from Bush in Sharm El-Sheikh is a solid commitment that the occupation of Iraq will not drag on much beyond two years, and that it will be conducted in a manner that will not inflame Arab public opinion. The Sharm El-Sheikh participants will also underline the urgent need for Washington to address humanitarian issues in Iraq and allow for a gradual establishment of some form of local Iraqi government.
Other issues likely to be brought up include joint Arab-American efforts to combat terrorism and Washington's initiative to establish free trade agreements between the US and the Middle East within a decade.
While similar issues will appear on the table in Aqaba the focus in the Jordanian port will ultimately be the roadmap.
Despite the nod of consent given by Israel to the roadmap disagreements remain over its implementation. Israel continues to insist that the Palestinians must demonstrate total success in halting suicide bombings and other forms of armed resistance to its military occupation before it will contemplate easing sanctions imposed on the Palestinian people. But despite the willingness of newly appointed Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to combat suicide bombings he urgently needs something in return to show if his credibility as a Palestinian leader is not to be undermined, possibly fatally.
Indeed, it was the disagreements over precisely this point that led to the repeated delay of the Sharon-Abbas meeting that was supposed to take place earlier this week and that may take place today.
In Aqaba, Arab diplomatic sources suggest, the Palestinian delegation that is likely to meet with Bush on the sidelines will stress the urgent need for the US to help Palestinians out of the sense of desperation that plays into the hands of Islamist militant groups.
Additional Arab meetings, both before and after the summits, are expected to take place. The Arab Summit Follow-Up Committee is planning a meeting on 1 June at the headquarters of the Arab League, and a second on 9 June in Al- Manama, the Bahraini capital. Bahrain currently holds the chair of the Arab summit. The meetings, which will take place at ambassadorial and ministerial levels, will also deal with the Arab- Israeli conflict and Iraq. Their primary focus, though, will be to reform the mechanisms of collective Arab relations.
The view of many -- though not all -- Arab diplomats is that repairing the cracks exposed in inter-Arab relations by the war against Iraq is no less urgent a matter, given its impact on the collective Arab stance towards relations with Israel and the US, than pushing forward the Arab-Israeli peace process or implementing economic and political reforms in Iraq.
