Mercosur revisited
Carlos Menem's withdrawal from Argentina's elections and the consequent victory of his rival, Nestor Kirchner, should give Mercosur a shot in the arm, writes Hisham El-Naggar from Buenos Aires
Carlos Saul Menem, former president of Argentina, and technically the winner by a narrow margin of the first round of elections two weeks ago, finally bowed to the inevitable and has withdrawn from the second round of elections.
For some, this is an indication of the cowardice of a man who, having won 24 per cent of votes in the first round, realised that no more votes were forthcoming, as the majority of voters are determined to blame him for the ills that have plagued their country of late. For others, it was a deliberate attempt to deal Argentine institutions a parting blow and weaken the new president, who will be sworn in after winning only 22 per cent of the votes. According to recent polls, he would have won 60 to 70 per cent of the vote in the second round.
Arguably the most interesting feature of the election has been the role of Argentina's neighbours in promoting the candidacy of Kirchner, a relatively unknown figure. Menem has been considered an anathema, not only by many Argentines, but also by many in neighbouring Brazil and Chile. Remembering his flirtations with "market fundamentalism", not to mention his talk of "carnal relations" with the United States, they dreaded the deleterious impact a new Menem presidency could have on hopes for South American integration.
Luiz Inacio da Silva ("Lula"), the highly popular Brazilian president who came in from the left, and Ricardo Lagos, the rather more beleaguered socialist president of Chile, received Kirchner last week and feted him in a manner that left no doubt as to their preference. Whereas in some cases support for a foreign statesman could hurt a local candidate, this support from the neighbours has confirmed Kirchner's role as a regional leader.
That this should have happened is an indication of the firm conviction of most Argentines that their future lies in integration within South America. Gone are the days when the Argentine elite thought their country was European, or -- to recall more recent and, indeed, Menemist history -- when Argentina's rulers thought of themselves as the vanguard of US influence in the region. Such is the positive image of Lula in Argentina that Menem, who had traded sharp words with him in the past, thought it wise to speak of the need of closer ties with Brazil before working towards a customs union with the US.
It did him little good. Menem succeeded in becoming a central figure of the closing years of the 20th century, but only in the sense that he aroused both loyalty and hatred among his countrymen, the latter exceeding the former by -- if pollsters are to be believed, and Menem himself believed them -- a margin of three to one. His vocal pro-Americanism hardly promoted his candidacy. Time was when Menem's grossly exaggerated "close contacts" in the US would have tempted many a voter who would otherwise have been critical of his flamboyant lifestyle and almost boastfully corrupt entourage. This is no longer the case.
Does that mean that the romance with the US is definitely over, and that Kirchner is destined to be another bête noire of the great superpower of the north, like Venezuela's Hugo Chavez?
Argentines may have distanced themselves somewhat from the US after the disappointment at the lack of visible US support for their country after the brief plunge into near-depression following its default on foreign debt. The undiplomatic declarations of the then Secretary of Treasury Paul O'Neill were taken as gratuitous insults. And Argentines, like most Latin Americans, were left with the impression that their whole region had dropped dramatically down the list of US priorities following 9/ 11.
That does not mean that vocal anti- Americanism will be a driving force in Argentina. "Left-of-centre" and not "socialist" is how Kirchner would probably define his politics. His inspiration will be, rather than the maverick and on the whole unsuccessful Chavez, Brazil's current President. Lula has managed to perform an admirable balancing act between his socially activist policies and the need to win the confidence of foreign investors with fiscally prudent measures.
What is certain is that Mercosur, the regional trading block which includes both Argentina and Brazil, will receive a powerful impetus from Menem's retreat and Kirchner's entrance. To consolidate his legitimacy, Kirchner will doubtless forge alliances with anti-Menemists -- decidedly a majority, and likely a growing one. On the international level, no one doubts that close alignment with Brazil and closer integration into the Mercosur will be a priority, applauded by most Argentines.
That does not, however, set Mercosur on a collision course with the US. It simply adds Argentina's weight to a policy of negotiating trade ties with the US as a bloc, rather than individually. From the practical point of view, this should lead to better protection of regional interests and a more balanced continental integration process. More important, it sharpens the sense of a regional identity.
Only a year ago, Argentina's economic woes and Brazil's political uncertainty had driven pundits to write Mercosur's obituary. They may have to reconsider their view, as Mercosur seems to be alive and well and shuttling between Brasilia and Buenos Aires.
