Allegiance pays
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is reaping the reward for loyalty to Washington, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's recent four-country tour, taking in the United Kingdom, United States, France and Germany, was very much an opportunity for him to harvest the fruits of loyalty to America in its 'war against terror'. But the red carpet treatment he got was also an indication of Pakistan's ongoing importance in that war, and will have an enormous impact on the country's domestic political development.
There can be no doubt that Pakistan has stood firmly by the United States since 11 September and the challenge posed to the international community by George Bush, when he announced that nations are 'with us or against us'. Pakistan's cooperation in the 'war against terror' includes: providing access to its airspace and logistical support for the US campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan; capturing senior Al-Qa'eda figures hiding in Pakistan; taking steps to control the notoriously autonomous tribal regions neighbouring Afghanistan; reining in Kashmiri militant groups and curbing infiltration across the Line of Control; and taking action against extremist Islamist groups operating inside Pakistan.
In the absence of parliamentary rule, a fact of Pakistani political life since the military coup of October 1999, virtually all those decisions were made unilaterally by President Musharraf. He did so in the face of widespread public opposition, not to mention the risk of Islamists venting their anger in terrorist attacks and other violence. There were a number of attacks by extremists in Pakistani cities, but President Musharraf did not allow these to deter him from the course on which he had set the country.
Musharraf's personal support to the US was acknowledged by President Bush, when the Pakistani president was given the rare honour of being invited to the Camp David retreat. There, Bush praised him as 'a visionary and a courageous leader' and 'a friend of the United States'. Musharraf must have been gratified to receive such high praise, but he was equally anxious to receive concrete rewards, e.g. in the form of financial assistance, for his fealty to America. He was not let down.
While noting that the US last year had already written off $1 billion in debts owed to it by Pakistan, President Bush announced a further $3 billion aid package spread over the next five years. A hefty $600 million a year, this money will be available for development, debt reduction and military equipment. The two countries also signed two agreements: the Science and Technology Agreement as well as the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). TIFA marks an important step towards a free trade agreement. The icing on the cake was the offer of American diplomatic assistance to resolve the Kashmir dispute with India.
The major disappointment from Musharraf's perspective was Bush's refusal to sell Pakistan the long-desired F-16 jet fighters. Pakistan has been seeking these for years, but the closest it has come to securing them was a deal with the Clinton administration that the Americans later reneged on. Pakistan wants the F-16s to counter arch-rival India's overwhelming superiority in conventional arms. For the same reason, the Indians are very keen that Pakistan should not get its hands on them. Indian Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani stressed this to the Americans when he was in Washington just before President Musharraf's visit. The Bush administration heeded his request, but the Indians will still be angry at the concessions Musharraf won, in particular the promise of military hardware.
Even without the controversial F-16s, Musharraf received substantial compensation. President Bush's generosity reflected his genuine gratitude for Pakistani cooperation, but was also an acknowledgment of Pakistan's continuing importance to the US. Over the next few years, Washington will be looking for Pakistani support in a number of areas. These include: continued Pakistani involvement in the war against terror (especially capturing Al-Qa'eda and patrolling the border with Afghanistan); a commitment by Pakistan not to pass its nuclear technology on to other countries; and progress on the domestic front towards Pakistan becoming a liberal and tolerant democracy. By spreading the $3 billion over five years, and making it conditional on annual presidential and Congressional approval, Bush is ensuring that Pakistan delivers what America wants.
President Musharraf seemed happy with what he got, but not everyone back home shared that sentiment. Critics point to the lack of F-16s and to the vast cost -- estimated to total $10 billion -- incurred by Pakistan in supporting the war against terror. Compared to this burden, the conditional delivery of $600 million a year seems quite paltry.
The critics have other reasons to attack Musharraf. His American tour has coincided with what appears to be a 'testing of the waters' on Pakistani recognition of Israel. President Musharraf brought up the politically dangerous issue in a TV interview. Later, his principal secretary -- someone very close to Musharraf -- told reporters that if the rest of the Muslim world recognised Israel, Pakistan could follow suit. The prime minister and information minister then added their similar views. All of which has lent credence to the idea that the government is about to reverse what has been a sacred cow for Pakistan, and officially recognise Israel.
Should it do so, the Pakistani government's motives will probably be two-fold. Firstly, to convey support for the American Middle East roadmap. Secondly, to neutralise the danger of an Indo-Israeli alliance against Pakistan -- India has long enjoyed close relations with Israel. There is also a third consideration. In view of the fact that Egypt, Jordan and the PLO have all accepted the reality of Israel's existence, continued ideologically- inspired opposition by Pakistan seems pointless.
But recognition is not entirely straightforward. However strong the reasons for accepting Israel, there will always be die- hards in Pakistan in irreconcilable opposition to the idea. Chief among these, of course, are the Islamist parties. Their political position is unusually strong at the moment: they form a significant bloc in the National Assembly, the provincial government in North-West Frontier province, and part of the coalition ruling the provincial government in Baluchistan. They can be expected to mobilise their cadres onto the streets if Musharraf agrees to recognise Israel.
They will also do so if the president sends Pakistani troops on 'peace-keeping duties' to Iraq. Musharraf revealed on ABC that he had been asked to do so by George Bush during their meeting in Camp David, and had in principle agreed to do so. But he added that Pakistan would want to send its troops under the mandate of the UN, OIC or GCC. Legitimation from the international community would be important for acceptability at home, and to avoid Pakistani troops being seen by Iraqis as part of the occupying force in their country. Unfortunately, such a mandate does not appear to be forthcoming.
If Pakistani troops are sent to Iraq simply on the request of the US -- which is understandably uneasy about the rising toll the occupation of Iraq is taking on American forces -- Pakistan would earn the continued appreciation of Washington, as well as considerable financial reward. The downside is that this would earn international (especially from Islamic countries) and domestic condemnation. The Pakistani president was none too cautious at home by announcing the agreement 'in principle' to deploy troops on American TV. As a leading English daily pointed out: "Knowing the sensitivity of the matter, he should have discussed it first at home and better still, referred the proposal to a joint session of parliament."
But now that Musharraf has received such a strong endorsement from the president of the United States, domestic political opposition will not be such a problem for him. The sad reality in Pakistan is that legitimacy of rule comes as much, if not more, from international acceptance than from a popular mandate. With the former in the bag, the Pakistani president is in a much stronger position to deal with domestic opponents. The main source of hostility between the government and opposition in recent months has been the controversial Legal Framework Order, granting the president extra powers. Thanks to his successful foreign trip, Musharraf could soon get his way on this issue -- as well as on troop deployment in Iraq and Pakistani recognition of Israel. The Pakistani president is indeed reaping the reward for loyal service to Washington.
