Reform talk
A new strategic report suggests that the rules of the game have changed both for Egypt and the entire Middle East. Dina Ezzat summarises
Reform is the name of the game in the Arab world and its immediate environs. Essentially inspired, if not actually enforced, by new US plans for the Middle East, political and economic reforms top the agendas of the entire region, Egypt included. Whether by choice or coercion, the ballot box, cabinet reshuffles and even military occupation are the tools employed to effect reforms.
These are the conclusions reached by the 2002- 2003 Strategic Report produced annually by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS).
"The Arab regime stands in its place, waiting for the unknown," wrote Hassan Abu Taleb, editor of the report. In his introductory statement, Abu Taleb stressed that the call for reform in the Arab world was based "on the needs of Arab societies to bring about development and break free of the shackles of oppression", be it foreign or otherwise.
The 436-page ACPSS report describes current reforms in Egypt and the Arab world, as well as explaining why change should occur. However, the report also warns that "change is not necessarily for the better and reform does not always lead the way to the best interests".
According to Abu Taleb, the roots of the US drive for regional reform lie, in part, with Israel, which wants to use Washington to place pressure on neighbouring Arab and Muslim states. Change, in this case, may be specifically tailored to serve strategic US interests in the region, for controlling its "wealth", in particular its oil reserves. But, the report admits, the result of this may actually be the promotion of progress in the Middle Eastern region.
"Political reform and change dominated a large portion of the national dialogue in Egypt," the report states. Examining the "change in performance of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP)" and the changes in the performance of most other political parties and groups, the report suggests that the country has witnessed some form of political reform "which has aided the implementation of economic reform". This political reform "secures an open society that enjoys democracy and freedom of expression", says Abu Taleb.
The report states in no uncertain terms that the march towards political reform in Egypt has been associated, in particular, with the political input of Gamal Mubarak, the younger son of President Hosni Mubarak and chairman of the NDP's Policy Secretariat who, according to President Mubarak, "has chosen to pursue public service... and to participate in the NDP without any motives and agendas".
As well as seeking political and economic reform, Egypt is also pursuing cultural reform, albeit less enthusiastically. According to the report, cultural reform essentially involves altering the social mores and principles that have long dominated Egyptian thought and consequently political, economic and social choices. At no point does the report specifically state that the pattern and pace of reform pursued by the Egyptian government and NDP reflect the desires of the Egyptian people or political parties. The report also fails to examine the criticism expressed by political and intellectual figures of the government's approach to and motives behind the reform, offering instead a realistic description of the schizophrenic relationship between the government and civil society -- which tolerates the activities of some non-governmental organisations while suppressing those of others.
More explicit language, however, is used when criticising the situation in the rest of the Middle East and its immediate African backyard: "The efforts to reform the Arab League were not pursued properly"; "The process for reaching a peaceful settlement of the Arab- Israeli conflict collapsed"; "Most Arab countries are lacking in national solidarity"; and "The Iraqi regime... (just like the entire) Arab regime failed to deal with the Iraqi crisis".
The report seems to echo disappointment regarding the effort of regional players in dealing with major issues, not only in relation to Iraq -- which the report says was handled according to the will of international players -- but also with regard to the poor handling of the Sudanese civil war and the management of relationships with non-Arab neighbours like Turkey and Iran.
And on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the report depicts a sense of confusion. The Arabs -- who during the 2002 Beirut summit adopted an initiative for fair, comprehensive and lasting peace -- are still involved in debate on the best way to deal with an extremely right-wing government in Israel and a neo-conservative/Christian lobby within the US administration.
The ACPSS report paints a picture of a Middle East in the throes of dramatic change: the triumph of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and the reshaping of that country's traditional close alliance with Israel and the US in the face of its attempts to foster relations with its Arab neighbours; the political upheaval in Iran with intensive battles between conservatives and reformists; Israel's political leaning to the right and the majority of Israelis who believe that they "are going through an existential struggle with the Palestinians"; and Arab countries witnessing "political changes" such as the introduction of, or amendments to the constitution as is the case in Algeria, Tunis and Bahrain, electoral reform in Morocco, and the evolution of Saudi Arabia's defence policy.
The report, however, also reflects an Arab world whose political will has been hijacked by the agenda of Israel and the Bush administration, who use military force, political blackmail or post 9/11 pressure -- "either you are with us or against us" -- to achieve their objectives.
More changes, predicts the report, may soon be seen in the Middle East.
