Stalemate reigns
Few expect any advances to be made during Bush's upcoming meetings with the Palestinian and Israeli prime ministers, reports Khaled Dawoud from Washington
Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has said that when he meets with US President George Bush tomorrow -- the first visit by Abbas to Washington as Palestinian prime minister -- he will show Bush a map of historic Palestine. The map, he told The New York Times on 20 July, proves that in demanding a state in the West Bank and Gaza, Palestinians are asking for only 22 per cent of the land..
Whatever the publicity stunts surrounding Bush's upcoming meetings -- he is also scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on 29 July -- few commentators expect much in the way of results. The point of the meetings, rather, is to underline Bush's continued involvement in the peace process.
Yet with just a few months before presidential campaigning begins in earnest, and a volatile situation quickly developing into a quagmire in Iraq, few observers expect Sharon to face any serious American pressure on issues such as halting settlement building, or the future of Jerusalem.
"The most we can expect is to reach the second phase of the roadmap," said David Makovsky, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a conservative think-tank. According to the roadmap Palestinians should form a "provisional Palestinian state" by the end of this year, while continuing to negotiate on final status issues -- the dismantling of illegal Jewish settlements on occupied land, the right of return of millions of Palestinian refugees, and the future of East Jerusalem.
Whatever is said in Washington, however, the situation on the ground has clearly reached another stalemate, with Israel clearly unwilling to pull out of territories occupied after the outbreak of the Aqsa Intifada, which it is required to do under the roadmap's first phase.
The failure of Sharon and Abbas to make any progress in bilateral talks on Sunday suggests that both leaders are waiting for their meetings with Bush before making any concessions.
After initially pulling troops from Gaza and Bethlehem a month ago, following intense US pressure from National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of State Colin Powell, Israel has delayed any further pull-outs from the West Bank, has stalled on the release of Palestinian prisoners, and allowed the continued building of settlements in the West Bank.
Abbas told reporters before his arrival in Washington late yesterday that he would ask the US president to pressure Sharon on all the above, as well as to help halt the construction of the separation wall. For his part Sharon will insist the Palestinian government first crack down on militant Palestinian groups, rounding up their members and seizing weapons. Abu Mazen has rejected such a move, insisting it would ignite a Palestinian civil war, and instead managed to reach a three-month cease-fire deal with Hamas, Jihad and Fateh's Al- Aqsa Brigades.
For the Bush administration Abbas's visit presents an opportunity to confirm its support for the "new" Palestinian leadership, further sidelining Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Bush has consistently refused to meet Arafat since taking office and made the selection of a new Palestinian leadership a condition for the release of the roadmap.
Abbas, US officials say, has made it clear that the only way to achieve Palestinian demands is through negotiations, and not "terror", hence the administration's support. In a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Monday, Bush said "terrorism is the greatest obstacle to the emergence of a Palestinian state."
To underline its backing of Abbas the US administration has for the first time approved the payment of direct aid to the Palestinian Authority. Although the initial amount of $20 million is small, US officials say more funding will come if Abbas and his cabinet continue with security and political reforms. The money, US officials believe, will allow the Palestinian prime minister to counter the network of social services provided by militant groups like Hamas.
John Alterman, Middle East director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shares the view that no major progress can be expected from Bush's meetings with Abbas and Sharon.
"The real problem," he said, "is the lack of leadership on both sides." While noting that Abbas lacked popularity among Palestinians, he said it had become increasingly evident that Sharon is incapable of making the necessary compromises.
"Even in his speech in Aqaba," Alterman noted, "Sharon would not utter the word occupation or Palestine." The most that can be expected, he added, are more promises from Sharon to release a handful of prisoners, or to carry out minor redeployments in the West Bank.
