Nile Valley thaw
As Egypt and Sudan inch closer economically and politically following talks between Egyptian and Sudanese top-level officials, the two neighbours must carefully consider the impact of integration, writes Gamal Nkrumah
Two days of talks between Egyptian and Sudanese top-level officials ended on an upbeat note. The two countries signed no less than 19 bilateral protocols, including the upgrading of trade and transportation links, and the establishment of a $100 million joint Egyptian-Sudanese bank. Other bilateral agreements also include cooperation in the fields of oil, electricity, social welfare, the media, education, culture and youth activities.
Egyptian Prime Minister Atef Ebeid led a high-powered delegation of cabinet ministers and prominent businessmen to Sudan. Upon arrival in Khartoum, Ebeid emphasised that Egypt's priority is backing continuing peace efforts.
The Egyptian-Sudanese talks took place barely a week after the sixth round of peace talks in Nakuru, Kenya, between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the country's largest armed opposition group, ended abruptly and inconclusively. The Sudanese peace talks in Kenya were convened under the auspices of the Inter- Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD), a regional organisation which groups seven East African countries, including Sudan. While not a member state, Egypt has been openly supportive of the IGAD peace process. Observers expect the peace talks to resume before the end of July.
The timing of the visit of these top- level Egyptian officials to Sudan is thought to coincide with the ending of the IGAD-sponsored peace talks in Kenya and prior to resumption of a new round of Sudanese peace talks. The Sudanese peace talks in Kenya earlier resulted in the SPLA and the Sudanese government jointly signing the Machakos Protocols, which provide for the separation of religion and state in southern Sudan and a referendum on self-determination after a six-year transitional period. The Sudanese protagonists have not yet finalised a power and wealth-sharing agreement and security arrangements in the six-year interim period.
However, the speed with which the Egyptian and Sudanese authorities have rushed through plans to enhance bilateral cooperation and integration has raised some eyebrows. Some observers feel that the speed of the Egyptian-Sudanese integration process might be interpreted as a gesture of solidarity by Cairo with the Sudanese government.
In the past few years, Egypt has been trying to balance cultivating the trust and friendship of all major Sudanese political groupings, both government and opposition. Egypt also has been careful to make friendly overtures to the southern Sudanese groups, foremost among them the SPLA. Some Sudanese opposition forces strongly believe that Egypt must continue to play a fair and impartial role in Sudanese affairs, particularly avoiding being seen as favouring the Sudanese government.
Egypt has also been working closely with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the umbrella opposition organisation grouping the SPLA and other mainly northern Sudanese opposition parties, as well as numerous distinct opposition groups to resolve the Sudanese political impasse.
"The Sudanese government has in the past signed similar agreements with other neighbouring countries, but no real integration took place. The Sudanese government's agenda has not changed radically. It has a militant Islamist outlook and there are no signs that its Islamist zealotry has waned. We suspect that Khartoum wants to protect itself from possible US sanctions. It hopes that Egypt will intercede on its behalf to Washington," Farouk Abu Eissa, the head of the Cairo-based Arab Lawyers Union and official spokesman for the NDA told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Egypt and Sudan reestablished full diplomatic relations in 2000 following a failed 1995 assassination attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak just before the commencement of an Organisation of African Unity summit in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. The would-be assassins were allegedly a team of Sudanese and Egyptians backed at the time by the Sudanese authorities.
In the wake of the assassination attempt, Egyptian-Sudanese relations plunged to an all-time low. Bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries gradually warmed, the thaw in the past few years visits helped by high- level delegations from the two countries to each others' capitals. The ground- breaking visit last month to Khartoum by President Mubarak, the first in more than a decade, stood as a strong testament to improved ties.
In the past, Egypt has had strong reservations about the creation of a separate state in southern Sudan. But, while Egyptian officials stress the importance of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and national unity of Sudan, they are careful not to upset southern Sudanese sensibilities and have signalled their desire to respect the wishes of the southern Sudanese. Safwat El-Sherif Egypt's minister of information and the secretary- general of the country's ruling National Democratic Party said that the two countries are working hard to "ensure the unity of Sudan and the integrity of its national territories".
The focus of the Egyptian-Sudanese talks was political, but with a strong economic component. The authorities in both Egypt and Sudan feel that the volume of commerce between the two neighbours falls far short of the full potential of bilateral trade. According to the Bank of Sudan figures, Sudan exported $57 million worth of goods to Egypt, while Sudanese imports from its northern neighbour totalled a mere $53.8 million in 2002.
Egyptian and Sudanese officials pledged to increase bilateral trade to three times the current volume and to establish three free-trade zones for Egyptian products in Sudan, including one in southern Sudan.
Iglal Raafat, professor of African history at Cairo University and Arab League advisor on Sudanese affairs believes that much still needs to be accomplished. She feels, though, that it should not be restricted to a government level, but must incorporate civil society involvement. "Egyptian-Sudanese cooperation and integration is a progressive step in itself. The problem is with the speed and overly officious nature of the integration process. People become suspicious when such matters of vital strategic consequence are rushed through," Rafaat told the Weekly.
Rafaat believes that Egyptian- Sudanese integration should not be hurried, "but important foundations have been put in place, in particular the pledge to improve transport and communications networks between Egypt and Sudan. The facilitation of road, river and rail networks are of vital importance and will boost bilateral trade between the two countries. I see these developments as an important beginning. But, I urge the two parties to embark on feasibility studies and research before they rush matters through."
Rafaat further said that it is imperative that various aspects of Egyptian- Sudanese integration be examined before plans are implemented. Among concerns about negative side effects of economic integration is a scenario wherein an influx of Egyptian manufactured and consumer goods into the Sudanese market overwhelms the nascent Sudanese manufacturing sector.
Raafat cited another example, that of Egyptian-Sudanese cooperation in the education sector. She particularly stressed that Egyptians must be more sensitive to the needs of the southern Sudanese in the educational sector. "The southern Sudanese have different cultural traditions that distinguish them from both Egyptians and northern Sudanese. These cultural specificities must be taken into account," she stressed.
Raafat also said that Egyptians investing in the agricultural or manufacturing sectors in Sudan need certain guarantees. "In the 1980s when Egyptian-Sudanese integration was rushed through, many mistakes were made and when the plans fell through many Egyptians investors lost a great deal of money. We must learn from the mistakes of the past. Integration must benefit all the different parties -- Egyptian and Sudanese."
