Upstream and simmering
In Africa, imperial ambitions remain strong, writes Ahmed Abdel-Halim*
President George W Bush's recent tour of Senegal, South Africa, Botswana, Uganda, and Nigeria says much about current US policy and national security perceptions. Inevitably, it recalls other trips to Africa by former US presidents, the last of which was Clinton's tour in 1998. Some observers saw Bush's recent tour of Africa as a missionary trip aiming to reassert some degree of US power. Others called it Africa's "roadmap", to underscore its importance.
US policy on Africa cannot be separated from America's global vision. As the uncontested leader of the global system, the United States has invaded Afghanistan, kept a close eye on its interests in Asia, mounted a military campaign against Iraq, and shown its continuing interest in the Arab-Israeli conflict. US policy is now branching out into Africa, in the hope of creating new momentum and further asserting its international clout. The United States is promising to fight AIDS, promote democracy, end civil war, provide economic assistance, and combat terrorism across the continent. But this is not the whole story.
For one thing, the United States wants to show the world that it is the only superpower capable of strategic, political, and military action in today's world. It wants to prove that it can maintain a political and military presence on more than one front, in application of the theory of "distributed warfare" that has gained considerable currency following the events of 11 September 2001. A successful US military intervention in Africa could also boost President Bush's fortunes in the 2004 elections. Despite its apparent poverty, Africa has plenty of untapped resources. Oil production in the continent, experts say, is likely to grow by five per cent by 2005.
Four US presidents have embarked on similar trips in the past. Franklin Roosevelt visited Morocco and Gambia in 1943, when he was concerned about German influence in Africa. Jimmy Carter went to Nigeria in 1978 in the hope of gaining a foothold for US business on the continent. George Bush Sr travelled to Somalia in 1992 to inspect US troops. Bill Clinton in 1998 toured Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, South Africa, Botswana, and Senegal. US interests in Africa are clearly not incidental, but form an integral part of US global strategy.
US presidents come and go, but US global aims remain the same. Africa is clearly an object of great interest to America, even if the much-cherished US objectives of democracy and human rights are generally lacking there, and even if the continent's debts continue to grow. Washington is not above turning a blind eye to tyrannical African regimes. The United States is eager to market its products on the continent, yet it imposes tough restrictions on imports from Africa. So, what would be the consequences if US influence within Africa was to grow? How would this affect the international and regional situation, for instance in the Great Lakes area, or in the Horn of Africa? What would be the impact on the current conflict in Sudan? And how would this in turn rebound on Egypt?
One country that used to wield substantial leverage in Africa is France. Paris has just called on the United States to send peace-keeping forces to Liberia in an effort to end the civil war, an admission perhaps of its own diminished status on the continent. This cannot be easy for the French. The late Francois Mitterrand once said that "without Africa, France will have no influence in the 21st century". Domestic critics of the French government blame it for the demise of Francophone influence, noting that it has failed to adapt to Africa's new realities -- perhaps because it has made no significant changes in its African policies since the 1960s.
Other European countries do not seem to be faring much better. The United Kingdom has mostly hitched its diplomatic cart to the US horse. Germany's diplomatic attention is fully absorbed by Europe, and particularly eastern Europe. This gives the United States the opportunity to boost its influence in Africa without much competition, except perhaps from African and Islamic regional organisations. The latter are watching America's moves with a wary eye. Only recently, the United States tried to put together an African peace-keeping force under US command, but both Egypt and South Africa balked at the prospect. This brings us to the question of Egypt's foreign policy in Africa.
In Africa, Egypt is primarily concerned about the Nile basin. Anything that happens upstream along the Nile can greatly affect Egypt's security and livelihood. This is why Sudan, Ethiopia, and other upriver countries are central to Egyptian policy. Generally speaking, Egypt wants to maintain a balance among the various African countries and regions; it also wants to see Africa integrated into the world order without too much disruption of the regional balance of power. Egypt's political and economic policy in Africa is subject, however, to a number of domestic, regional, and international limitations.
Security-wise, the Nile basin is of great importance to Egypt, for it contains several flashpoints that could threaten the country's national security. Conflicts within the Nile basin affect Egypt's water and security interests. These conflicts can -- among other things -- threaten the river's sources and tributaries, and thus undermine Egypt's political and strategic interests. Egypt views the Nile basin as a vital region, one that is susceptible to foreign influence, and one in which any problems which arise could spill over into neighbouring regions, such as the Red Sea and the oil-rich Gulf states. This explains Egypt's interest in Bush's recent tour of Africa, for this tour will have an effect on the entire continent, including Sudan and Ethiopia -- two countries that Egypt views as vital to both its security and its water supply.
International treaties and neighbourly relations have helped Egypt bring relative security and peace to Africa. But the interference of foreign powers in the region has never stopped. Political conditions in Africa make the continent particularly susceptible to international intervention. The situation is further complicated by the eruption of domestic disturbances in certain African countries, Liberia being an obvious example. Egypt's African policy can be summarised in a few points:
The River Nile is a vital part of the region's geography and the riparian countries should have the upper hand in deciding what happens along the course of the waterway.
The River Nile is the main source of water for downstream countries, particularly Egypt, and is of great strategic importance for all riparian countries.
Some issues concerning the Nile basin states are still unresolved. This makes the Nile basin a source of concern, a potential cause of regional friction, and an area constantly monitored by foreign powers.
Foreign interests in the region are not necessarily identical with local ones. Outsiders have their own policies and strategies and these may not dovetail with regional ones.
Foreign presence in the region has altered the shape of regional relations and strategic balance in the Nile basin area.
Any threat to Egypt's quota of Nile water is a matter of Egyptian national security, and Egypt is prepared to use all available means to counter such a threat.
Following the end of the Cold War, the political and strategic context has changed in Africa. Not only is the map of foreign influence not the same, but certain African groups have begun asserting their role; chief of these are the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
For its part, Egypt has formed a joint ministerial committee that convenes bi-monthly to examine how to promote ties with African countries. In 1998, Egypt joined the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), a regional grouping of 20 states. In 2001, it joined another African grouping, the Sahel and Sahara Union, which brings together some 18 countries. In 1998, Egypt played an active role in getting the ministers of water resources in the Nile Basin countries to approve a new initiative for cooperation among riparian states, an initiative that would effectively transform cooperation among these countries from mere words into concrete deeds. Taken together, these moves have created new hopes and reduced tensions across the region. As far as Egyptian-Sudanese relations are concerned, the two countries have formed the Higher Egyptian-Sudanese Joint Committee, which recently held its third session in Khartoum. During that session, the two countries signed 55 agreements and memoranda of understanding, and approved a plan of action for cooperation and integration. These African efforts were crowned by the transformation of the OAU into a more modern form of cooperation, the African Union. By coincidence, the African Union was in session while Bush was in Africa on his recent tour.
* The writer is an expert in military strategy and deputy director of the Centre for Middle East Studies.
