India and Pakistan inch towards peace
Last week's burial of the war hatchet may usher in a brand new era, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad
Recent developments in South Asia suggest that peace between long-term rivals India and Pakistan could be on the horizon. Normalisation of relations between these countries would open up vast economic opportunities for both parties as well for the entire South Asia region. Though a clearly desirable goal, all involved are aware of the considerable obstacles that have to be overcome before peace is realised.
Peace came a step closer last week with the highly successful visit to Pakistan by an Indian delegation of parliamentarians and journalists. The delegation of 33 MPs and 26 journalists and academics arrived in Pakistan on Saturday 9 August, after crossing the border at Wagah. The informal visit took place at the invitation of the South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA), a non-governmental media organisation funded by Norway and with branches in both Pakistan and India.
The main item on the Indians' agenda was a conference in Islamabad on "Understanding, confidence-building and conflict resolution". The conference was organised by SAFMA, and attended by senior political figures from Pakistan. Most sessions were held behind closed doors, but according to statements made by delegates, the conference atmosphere was clearly positive. A statement by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee was read out at the conference, in which he expressed the hope that cooperation would replace confrontation. "Violence and bloodshed cannot provide any enduring solutions...," the statement said, "we cannot deny our people their right to peaceful and cooperative economic development."
Equally important as the meeting itself was the sign of goodwill shown by Indians towards the Pakistani delegates.
The star delegate was undoubtedly the charismatic politician and ex-Chief Minister of Bihar Laloo Prasad Yadav. His reception was particularly warm, but all Indian delegates were welcomed wherever they went.
Although the visit was informal -- without government involvement -- it could not have taken place without an improvement in official relations between India and Pakistan. This process began in May this year with a speech by Prime Minister Vajpayee in which he offered the hand of friendship to Pakistan. This was followed in July by the resumption of the Lahore-Delhi bus service, previously suspended for 18 months.
Among the first passengers to cross from the Pakistani side was a two-year-old girl, Noor Fatima, in need of life-saving heart surgery. Her story was picked up in India, and generated a massive public response in the form of donations and gifts. A smaller delegation of Pakistani parliamentarians also crossed on the bus to make a brief peace- building visit in July. Following a number of high profile militant attacks in Indian Kashmir, New Delhi refrained from its usual practice of blaming Islamabad. Indeed, diplomatic relations were restored, with the High Commissioners of both countries taking up their respective positions in August.
This type of positive interaction between India and Pakistan would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. Following a militant attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, relations between the two countries rapidly deteriorated. By the summer of 2002 they appeared to be on the brink of a fourth full-scale war. This was narrowly averted, but tension persisted until the recent thawing in hostility this year.
There has been much speculation about the reason for the recent improvement in Indo- Pak relations -- and about where it will lead. With regard to the former, one of the prime "suspects" is the United States. Many people believe India and Pakistan are being pushed together by American pressure. The United States is certainly keen to see tensions and the associated risk of nuclear conflict in the region abate, and Washington does have influence in both Islamabad and (albeit to a lesser extent) New Delhi. But US pressure alone cannot account for the moves.
Another widely-held theory, in view of the fact that the Indian prime minister made the first move to peace, is that he is the driving force on the Indian side. While extending the hand of friendship to Pakistan, he added that this would be his "third and last" attempt at peace. This was a reference to his age: Atal Behari Vajpayee is in his late 70s. Many analysts feel Vajpayee is seeking to make his place in history, to enter the history books as the man who resolved the long-standing Kashmir dispute and brought peace to the subcontinent. There is certainly a feeling that not all his younger Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) colleagues share his enthusiasm for dialogue with Pakistan.
But there is also a third factor. Over the past year and a half of hostile relations, India has won considerable international sympathy for its stance that the Kashmiri separatist movement is something in which Pakistan should not interfere. The combination of Indian military build-up along Pakistan's borders and external diplomatic pressure forced President Musharraf to reverse a long- standing Pakistani policy and cut support for militants fighting in Indian Kashmir. There is very little more that the Indians could hope to gain from belligerence. Normalisation of relations, on the other hand, allows them to end the costly military deployment and to benefit from eased bilateral trade and travel.
Where will all this lead? One of the most frequently asked questions during the Indian delegation's recent tour of Pakistan, was how soon dialogue between India and Pakistan will be resumed. This would appear to be the logical next step. But, thanks to past bitter experiences, this time both sides are exercising caution.
The Agra summit in 2001 ended in acrimony after President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee failed to agree on the nature and prioritisation of the Kashmir dispute. The Indian position has always been that the two countries should strive first for normalisation of relations -- in the form of greater trade and cultural links -- and then try to resolve the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan's long-held view is that Kashmir remains at the core of the dispute between India and Pakistan, and until this is resolved normalisation is impossible. One of the obstacles currently holding up talks is the question of what should come first, Kashmir or normalisation.
Fundamental differences exist between the two approaches to the Kashmir issue. The Indians continue to accuse Islamabad of sponsoring "cross-border terrorism" and insist that stopping this is a prerequisite for talks. The Pakistanis accuse New Delhi of massive human rights abuses in Indian Kashmir, and insist this must stop before talks can go ahead.
There are also other obstacles. Religious ideologues in the two countries -- Hindu in India and Muslim in Pakistan -- oppose the recent rapprochement and any suggestion of compromise over Kashmir. Next year, India goes to the polls. The BJP has traditionally profited from taking a hard-line stance against Muslims in general and Pakistan in particular. It is unlikely to throw away that trump card. On the Pakistani side, Musharraf could face domestic political opposition to a deal. Perhaps more significantly, sections within the armed forces oppose compromise with a neighbour that has a huge conventional arms advantage over Pakistan.
In view of the many obstacles to lasting peace in South Asia, perhaps the optimism generated by recent positive developments is premature.
