Uncertain roads ahead
The region remains in flux as its hotbeds of political turmoil continue to simmer, writes Nevine Khalil
In an attempt to help improve what the next few weeks might hold for the region, Cairo remained active on the Palestinian and Iraqi diplomatic fronts.
On Friday, President Hosni Mubarak's Chief Political Adviser Osama El-Baz shuttled to Ramallah and Tel Aviv for meetings with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom. "Egypt feels the dangerous state of affairs," El-Baz told reporters after meeting with Arafat. "If the situation continues to deteriorate we will reach a crisis point for all the parties." El-Baz called on both sides to "avoid any further escalation". He was referring to bombings in Jerusalem on 19 August to which Israel retaliated by assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Abu Shanab the next day. "We need to go back to the roadmap and give the peace process a chance to survive," said El-Baz.
El-Baz also delivered urgent messages from Mubarak to both the Palestinians and the Israelis, urging the leadership on both sides to restore calm and stay the course on the roadmap.
According to Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath, El-Baz also presented ideas towards brokering a new truce which would be recognised by both sides. Palestinian Labour Minister Ghassan Al-Khatib described the visit as very timely. "We exchanged opinions about what is really happening, and Egypt offered its assistance towards overcoming this juncture," he said.
A few days after his return, El-Baz said that Egypt was undertaking massive efforts towards preventing the deterioration of conditions in the Palestinian territories. "Egypt will not take decisions on behalf of the Palestinians or impose anything on them," he said on Monday. "We are working on presenting options and giving them advice." Addressing a student summer camp in Alexandria, El-Baz said that the coming phase will be decisive for the roadmap initiative's prospects. He called on the world community to "provide the proper atmosphere" to enable the two sides to honour their commitments, and eventually forge the way for the creation of a Palestinian state.
During a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher and his German counterpart Joschka Fischer, both Cairo and Berlin agreed that the situation in Iraq and the Palestinian territories was "worrisome". Earlier, Fischer had said that the EU would double its efforts to bolster the dialogue between the Palestinians and the Israelis. This would break the cycle of violence and assist in relaunching the political process, he said. Cairo will also be talking to other European officials such as Spain's Foreign Minister Ana Palacio, who will be arriving in Egypt on Friday to discuss the role Europe should play in stabilising the region.
Earlier in the week, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini described Egypt's efforts to reconcile the Palestinian and Israeli sides and bring peace to the Middle East as "beneficial for the whole region". Frattini, whose country currently heads the rotating presidency of the European Union, said that the European bloc is solidly behind the thorough implementation of the roadmap. He added that Rome is particularly interested in rebuilding the Palestinian economy and infrastructure "to ascertain that stability will take hold in the Palestinian territories and the region as a whole".
Despite all these good intentions, the onus remains on Washington to coerce the parties -- especially Israel -- to forge ahead on the roadmap. Mubarak spoke with US Secretary of State Colin Powell on Saturday to discuss the unraveling situation between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Mubarak urged Washington to continue exerting efforts with both sides in order to save the region from further instability. On the same day, US President George W Bush stated that in order for the Palestinians to have their own state, armed attacks on Israel must end. He also fiercely attacked Hamas and called on the Palestinians to dismantle terrorist networks.
Powell's Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage will head to the region next month, arriving in Cairo for talks on 13 September. Reports indicate that either Powell or US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice may also embark on a tour of the region within the next few weeks.
But prior to the arrival of these American officials, a 9 September meeting of Arab foreign ministers will further explore the situation in the Palestinian territories. The ministers will also debate Iraqi representation at the 22-nation Arab League, and requests by non-Arab countries such as Turkey, Ethiopia and Eritrea to join the regional body as observers.
On Sunday, Maher met with a delegation of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), which included its chairman, Ibrahim Al-Ja'fari, as well as Adnan Pachachi, Ghazi Al-Yawar and Barak Abu Sultan. The 25- member council was created in July by the US-led coalition ruling Iraq. Maher described the Iraqi delegation as composed of "prominent Iraqi politicians who advocate Iraq's independence and unity". He reiterated that Cairo still believes that the creation of the interim governing council as a temporary authority is "a positive step". Maher deflected questions about Cairo's opinion on the council's legitimacy, saying that "Egypt supports any effort which confirms the sovereignty of the Iraqi people and a larger role for the UN in Iraq." He was even more elusive when asked if the delegation was received in Cairo as official representatives of Iraq, or in their personal capacity. "That is not the core of the issue. What is more important is that we met, and they explained to us what they do, and what their goals are," Maher said.
The meeting with Maher was part of a tour of various Arab capitals -- including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates -- which represented the IGC's first opportunity to present its case, as well as its point of view regarding the conditions under which it is working.
In Cairo, IGC Chief Al-Ja'fari was quick to comment that recognition of the IGC as the true representatives of the Iraqi people "is now a given". He said that the invitations that were extended to the delegation from several Arab countries, "by default confirms that we are recognised. We are not here in our personal capacities or as tourists; we came here to talk politics".
According to Al-Ja'fari, the presence of foreign troops in Iraq is "an exception" brought on by the war against Saddam Hussein's regime. "We want to achieve Iraq's political independence as soon as possible," he stressed.
Cairo, however, still wants more concrete answers from the major players. On Monday, El-Baz insisted that Washington and London needed to specify a deadline "within months, not years" for their withdrawal from Iraq.
