The multiple of zero
Continuing US failure in Iraq is wreaking havoc in Turkey. Gareth Jenkins, in Ankara, writes
After weeks of deliberation, Turkey appears to be edging closer to agreeing to send peace-keeping troops to Iraq, although the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) is still avoiding making a public commitment for fear of triggering a public backlash or another parliamentary rebellion from amongst its own ranks.
On Saturday General Hilmi Ozkok, chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS), indicated that the country's powerful military favoured dispatching troops to Iraq amid fears in Turkey that the deteriorating security situation and increasing Iraqi resentment at the US occupation could lead to the country's disintegration. Worsened Iraqi instability could have severe repercussions not only for the region at large, but particularly for Turkish domestic politics, especially given the recent upsurge in Kurdish separatist violence within Turkey.
"If the USA fails in Iraq, the result will be massive instability, which will concern Turkey directly," said General Ozkok. "We are trying to assess what is likely to happen. But it is impossible for Turkey to stand by and watch Iraq descend into chaos."
US General James Jones, Supreme Allied Commander for Europe (SACEUR) was due to arrive in Ankara on Tuesday (2 September) for talks with Turkish officials, with the possibility of a Turkish troop deployment in Iraq at the top of his agenda. Another US military delegation was expected on the weekend (6-7 September) for technical discussions on where Turkish troops could be deployed, under whose command and who would cover the costs of the deployment.
The TGS has already drawn up provisional plans to send around 10,000 soldiers to perform peace-keeping duties in Iraq. Turkish officials report that Washington has indicated that it would like to see Turkish troops deployed west of Baghdad in predominantly Arab areas. But the Turkish government is anxious that the soldiers should not be seen merely as an extension of the US occupation.
"We must not give the impression that we are the United States' gendarmerie or police," said Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
But there appears little understanding in Ankara of how Turkish troops are likely to be regarded even in their own right. Privately, several Turkish officials continue to argue that Turkish soldiers should be deployed in the predominantly Kurdish north of the country, so that they could protect the Turkish-speaking Turkoman minority.
However, both of the main Kurdish factions in Iraq, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), see the Turkomans as virtually a Turkish fifth column seeking to establish a de facto Turkish protectorate in the north of the country and have vowed to oppose any Turkish troop deployment by force if necessary. Similarly, although they have little love for the Americans or the British, bitter memories of the final years of the Ottoman Empire mean that the Arab majority in Iraq is unlikely to look warmly on the deployment of a large number of Turkish troops, particularly if they are not under the command of an international body such as the United Nations.
Nor is there any indication that the Turkish public favours the deployment. According to a public opinion published in Turkey last week by Pollmark Research, 59.3 per cent of Turks opposed sending troops to Iraq, while only 35 per cent supported the idea. Perhaps more ominously for the government, 56 per cent of JDP supporters were against the deployment of Turkish troops. The survey also indicated a massive rise in anti-American sentiment in Turkey since the beginning of the military campaign to oust Saddam Hussein. Only 20.4 per cent of those questioned now had a positive view of the US, while 70.4 per cent said that they actively disliked America.
Nor will Erdogan and the other members of his cabinet have forgotten the public euphoria when, on 1 March this year, a rebellion by JDP dissidents blocked a government parliamentary motion to send Turkish troops to Iraq to participate in the US-led war against Saddam Hussein.
But concern is growing in the Turkish security forces that, without stability in Iraq under a strong central government, the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK, formerly known as the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK) will use the ensuing confusion to resume its military campaign inside Turkey. KADEK still has an estimated 5,000 militants under arms in the mountains along Iraq's border with Turkey. Although Washington has repeatedly assured Turkey that it regards KADEK as a terrorist organisation and will deal with it accordingly, it so far has failed to take any concrete action.
"We know what the US attitude towards the PKK is. We just don't know what they are going to do about it," said Ozkok.
Last month the Turkish government announced a partial amnesty for KADEK militants in hope of sapping the organisation's strength. But, although several hundred militants imprisoned in Turkey have applied to be freed under the amnesty, to date only two militants have actually come down from the mountains and surrendered to the Turkish security forces. Meanwhile there are increasing signs that KADEK is gradually abandoning the unilateral cease-fire which it declared in August 1999. Last Thursday six Turkish policeman were wounded in two separate attacks in south-eastern Turkey, while on Saturday another policeman died in an attack in the town of Silvan.
On Friday Erdogan urged the US to move against the KADEK militants in northern Iraq. "After 11 September Turkey fulfilled its responsibilities in combating international terrorism, now it is time for you to fulfil your responsibilities," he said.
"At the moment we have zero influence in Iraq," said Ozkok. "And however much you multiply zero by, you still end up with zero."
