An ecological peace alternative?
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed argues that water scarcity, now a liability for the Arabs, need not be so, provided they play their cards wisely
This summer, Europeans sweltered through the worst heat wave they experienced since temperatures were first recorded. The heat and lack of rain, which was responsible for thousands of deaths, wildfires and water shortages, brought home the realisation that global warming and other ecological irregularities have become a serious threat, and that systematic efforts must be made to decipher the secrets of climatic aberrations before they get out of control.
The problem of water shortages is far worse in the countries lying on Europe's soft underbelly. A couple of weeks ago, I received a letter from the former French foreign minister, Herve de Charette, inviting me to take part in an international symposium to be held next month in Paris provisionally entitled: "Mediterranean stakes: water, between war and peace". The letter spoke of "the traditional shortage of water resources in most of the countries south of the Mediterranean, the tensions and conflicts generated by the partition of water between these states, the increased pressure due to the growing needs of the demographic boom," and noted that these factors make it more necessary than ever before to seek solutions based on sharing experiences, pooling technical knowledge and international cooperation, particularly at the Euro- Mediterranean level.
According to M de Charette, "the problem is particularly acute in the countries surrounding the Mediterranean where water resources are limited, notably in the Maghreb and the Middle East. These regions represent five per cent of the global population and only one per cent of available potable water. The average per capita consumption of water is less than 1300 cubic metres a year, while the global average is 7000 cubic metres a year. With the need for water increasing exponentially as a result of the demographic explosion, growing urbanisation and global warming, the demand for water is soon expected to exceed available supplies. Because water, which is vital for life as well as for socio-economic development, ignores national borders, it is a source of potential inter-state confrontation, particularly in the southern Mediterranean basin.
A few years ago, I was preoccupied with the water problem. In June 1998, I wrote an article for Le Monde Diplomatique proposing the establishment of a mega-project that would transfer considerable amounts of water from the Mediterranean Sea to the Sahara Desert after subjecting it to a process of evaporation followed by distillation, thus guaranteeing its desalination. I suggested that solar energy be used as fuel for the operation. Apparently three rows of concave mirrors extending from Morocco to Gaza could produce four times as much electricity as that consumed by the whole of Europe. My proposal was driven as much by political as ecological considerations. On the one hand, it would solve the water shortage problem; on the other, I hoped it would trigger a political process that could ultimately change the balance of power between the Arabs and the Israelis to the advantage of the Arab side -- not through war, but by means of a peaceful constructive mega-enterprise.
In a way, it would be trading one liquid for another: petroleum that the Arab deserts store in enormous quantities, for water that the Arabs lack to the point of exposing their future to an extremely serious threat. The sale of petroleum and, eventually, of petrochemicals, could cover the costs of the solar energy required to operate the desalination plants. I deliberately chose solar rather than nuclear energy to avoid the risks posed by nuclear energy.
Such a project is bound to impact strongly on the balance of power between Arabs and Israelis. How it will impact depends on which of the two sides takes the initiative. If the project is launched by the Israelis, the balance of power will tilt further to their advantage. If the Arab side takes the initiative, it will restore equilibrium to one extent or other.
Some time ago, the French news agency AFP and its Italian counterpart ANSA, published brief reports that Israel had already embarked on a huge water project. Since the story first appeared, however, there has been a complete news blackout, probably at Israel's insistence. But news has filtered out that Israel has already launched a project to desalinate sea water on a medium scale, and according to a new technique -- based on electricity, not nuclear or solar energy -- which significantly reduces the cost of desalination. It is said that four stations will serve Israel proper, while a fifth, established in Palestinian territory, will produce potable water that could be sold in future to the Arab environment. The project is scheduled for completion when the crunch of lack of water will begin to be seriously felt, in a decade or perhaps less. It is rumoured that the United States, the European Union and Japan are investing billions of dollars in the project.
What I advocated was that the Arab parties take the lead and launch a project that would compete with the Israeli project and cooperate with the international community independently from Israel. If Israel wants to extend the cooperation and have both the Arabs and the Israelis on one common project, it will then have to negotiate an overall peace settlement on terms acceptable to both sides, a condition that Israel is by no means ready to contemplate for the time being.
The Arabs have many assets they can put into play to get such a project off the ground; huge reserves of oil, direct access to the unlimited waters of the Mediterranean, vast deserts and year-round sunlight. Moreover, some Arab countries, notably Egypt and Mesopotamia (Iraq), have been hydraulic societies since time immemorial, with extensive water management experience. While admitting Israel's technological superiority, the Arabs can take advantage of the quantitative factors they dispose of to offset Israel's qualitative edge. They have the wealth to call on international expertise to help build a vast desalination project to solve the urgent problem of water scarcity. The bigger the project, the more expensive it will be in absolute terms but in relative terms it will drastically cut the cost of desalinating water. Size is therefore a major consideration, and the Arabs have every interest in making the project as large as possible.
Unfortunately, however, my calls for a pan- Arab solution to the looming water crisis fell on deaf ears, I have given up thinking of the project, not only because I received no encouragement of any sort from the Arab side, but also because there is very little chance of any Israeli attempt to push forward with peace at this juncture. Moreover, such a project can only be envisaged in the context of pan-Arab solidarity, and the situation today, where Arab infighting is such that we are witnessing the worst possible Palestinian-Palestinian confrontations, is inimical to the building of a wide Arab front based on the joint interest of all parties to join hands in the face of a common threat.
In the 20th century, Nasser built the High Dam to benefit from every cubic centimetre of the Nile's water. The course of his entire political career was determined in the final analysis by the relentless war he waged against desertification. The 21st century requires a project of a pan-Arab scope to face water needs in future. The fate of the new project, like that of the former one, will depend more on political will than on any technical considerations, however intricate the technical aspects are.
