Redrawing the 'Middle' East
The balance of power is shifting in the Middle East, and India's prime minister makes his first move in the game of regional supremacy, writes Mustafa El-Labbad
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has just concluded a three-day visit to Turkey for talks with President Ahmet Sezer and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks included expanding trade between the two countries from the current annual level of $630 million, as well as the situation in Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia and the Middle East. The historic visit was the first by an Indian prime minister to Turkey since Rajiv Gandhi visited Istanbul 15 years ago, and the first since the 11 September attacks in the US and the ensuing "war on terror".
Vajpayee's visit to Turkey is seen as the start of what may turn out to be a long and arduous game of shifting alliances. Despite the Indian prime minister's calming words that, "there is no Indian-Turkish-Israeli axis", India admits that it has been cooperating with Israel and Turkey in the so- called "war against terror". Both India and Turkey agree that a UN Security Council decision allowing their troops to deploy in Iraq would be desirable, since it would enable them to accommodate Washington's request for their military assistance in that country. Turkey is more eager than India to send troops to Iraq because of its concern over the future of the Kurdish areas.
Turkey was the first stop for the Indian prime minister, who left Istanbul for New York to attend the first UN General Assembly meeting since the Iraq war. While in New York, Vajpayee is expected to hold talks with US President George W Bush, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. India has made it known that it wants a permanent seat with veto power in an expanded UN Security Council. Pakistan, India's traditional rival, opposes such a move, claiming that India is in violation of UN Security Council resolutions with regard to Jammu and Kashmir.
The balance of power in the Middle East is undoubtedly shifting, and things have changed considerably since the British foreign office first coined the term "Middle East" in the 19th century. This term was used to refer to the area extending from Egypt in the west, to Iran in the east; from Turkey in the north, to Yemen in the south. The boundaries of what may now be dubbed an enlarged Middle East run from Central Asia and the Caspian Sea in the north, to the Indian Ocean in the south; and from India in the east, to North Africa in the west.
With the expansion of the Middle Eastern area, regional alliances are beginning to shift. New players are being introduced and old players are being sidelined. The Middle East currently has seven major players -- India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia -- all of whom have various degrees of regional influence depending on their geographical location, population size, military capabilities, economic weight, historical role or international connections.
In the shifting regional alliances, Turkey needs India's support both in Iraq and Central Asia, while India hopes to become a recognised regional power, and to neutralise Pakistan's role in the region.
A new map of the enlarged Middle East is emerging from the back rooms of international think-tanks into open diplomacy. As regional powers contemplate their next move, India's opening overture will remind them that the possibilities of new alliances are numerous. A high-rolling game of regional supremacy is afoot, and the players are beginning to stake their claims.
