Fragmenting the region
By
Salama A Salama
The Middle East is currently witnessing the spread of chaos and violence, with the danger of much greater escalation. All of this is thanks to the American policy of preemptive strikes which has encouraged Israel to follow suit, and which, sooner or later, will result in the fragmentation of the region.
On the Palestinian front, the Israeli assault did not end at Jenin in the West Bank, but led to the full- scale invasion of Rafah on the Egyptian-Palestinian border. Israeli tanks besieged the town for several days, bombarding densely populated residential areas as soldiers searched for Palestinian freedom fighters and tunnels used by the resistance. Several civilians were killed, including children, prompting UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to issue a rare rebuke of the Israel use of lethal force against civilians.
The internal instability of the Palestinian Authority has distracted the international community from the Israeli bloodshed. Palestinian President Yasser Arafat is resisting the formation of a government under the leadership of Ahmed Qurei, due to Arafat's paranoia of losing power. The farce that is playing out at Arafat's besieged headquarters in Ramallah is more entertaining than Israeli brutality in the Gaza Strip, which have become mundane.
Israel may be carefully trying to restrict its operations in Rafah from crossing the border into Egypt, but this degree of escalation is certain to create an atmosphere of tension that will be unable to endure a single flare-up, even if by mistake.
On the Syrian front, Israel seized the pretext of the Haifa suicide bombing to launch an air raid on Syria. By this act of aggression, for which Israel used the argument of preemptive strikes in self- defence, a 30-year truce was breached. While the rest of the world condemned this air raid, US President George W Bush defended it as part of the war against terrorism, protecting Israel from a non-binding, condemning resolution from the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, the US has quietly permitted Israel to annex parts of the West Bank with its security barrier.
The situation is deteriorating further as a result of the schemes drawn up by the hawks in the US administration. One bill proposes sanctions against Syria, allegedly because it is uncooperative in the war against terror and allowing elements of the Iraqi resistance to cross into Iraq from Syria.
There appear to be only two options for Syria. One is to completely succumb to all the demands being made by the US, as is the case with the rest of the Arab countries, in an attempt to avoid being the next victim of pre-emptive war. The second option requires Syria to re-evaluate its internal policies in order to liberalise the domestic political scene, as well as in Lebanon. It needs to strengthen its homefront and not only rely on limited ties with American intelligence agencies.
On the Iraq front, developments on the ground have resulted in disorder and the strengthening of the spirit of resistance. The importing of foreign troops from Turkey and other countries will not pacify popular Iraqi resistance. The declaration by the prominent Shi'ite leader Moqtada Al-Sadr of the formation of a shadow government to compete with the Interim Governing Council indicates that conditions in Iraq are unraveling quickly. If the US fails to pass a new Security Council resolution allowing the UN more authority, it will be obvious to all that the grand US gamble is headed towards disaster. With them, they will take down surrounding Arab countries which cannot hide their disdain of US policies that apparently aim to fragment the Middle East and re- assemble it to serve Israeli goals and interests, as well as American strategic ambition, as defined by neo- conservat ives.
