Not so great expectations
Can the Middle East extricate itself from its current dilemmas anytime soon? Highly unlikely, as Dina Ezzat gathered from the Arab press
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In the daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Amaguad Rassim shows the consequences of Arabs attempting to make peace with the current rabid Israeli government. The Saudi daily Al-Youm ridiculed the Arab failure to put any serious pressure on Israel even though its prime minister has threatened to attack any country he deems a threat. One bold Arab, responding to Sharon's threats: "We will negotiate with any country that we consider a threat!!"
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It has been a week of what can be called "anxiety as usual" in the Middle East. Continued chaos in Iraq; increasing horror stories in the occupied Palestinian territories; tension in Syria, Lebanon and Iran; a dubious peace deal in Sudan; and internal political turmoil in many other Arab states.
Throughout the week, the headlines in the Arab press gave little hope of an early end to the gloomy atmosphere that has prevailed in the Middle East for weeks and, in some instances, months, if not years.
"Increasing disturbances in Iraq", "New attempts at the lives of Iraqi ministers", "Rising resistance against American troops in Iraq", "Increasing attacks against Iraqi police forces", and "American troops burn fields in Iraq to deny militants hideouts". These were some of the headlines of stories which ran in the Arab press about developments in Iraq. The stories themselves were even more frustrating. "Ninety-two Iraqi intellectuals plead with the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to re-introduce capital punishment that it had lifted", reported the daily Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday. According to the story in the London-based daily, "The letter addressed to the CPA argued that this was the only way to control the spiralling violence and crime rate that have seriously affected the safety of the Iraqi people since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime."
This was not the most disturbing story filed from Iraq. Perhaps more worrisome were stories indicating potential Iraqi-Turkish fighting in northern Iraq. Iraqi politicians, especially Kurds, voiced strong opposition to the declared intention of Ankara to send Turkish troops to Iraq. They even voiced opposition against the support shown by the American administration to this Turkish move. Worse, some have been quoted in the Arab press as indicating possible "resistance" to this potential, albeit uncertain, deployment. Indeed, also on Monday, in an interview published in Asharq Al-Awsat, US-appointed Iraqi Foreign Minister Houchiar Zibari, a Kurd, called the expected deployment of Turkish troops to Iraq as "security-based occupation" that could "prompt other countries to do the same. We would have preferred if neighbouring countries took historical sensitivities into account and did not send troops to Iraq," Zibari told the paper. The Iraqi minister, who had earlier in the week voiced harsh criticism of the Turkish plans, alluded to possible confrontation between Turkish troops and the Iraqis.
Turkish officials have reportedly sent mixed signals about the reasons behind the decision to send troops. Turkish Prime Minister Receep Tayib Erdogan was widely quoted in the Arab press as stressing that the troops "will merely serve humanitarian and peaceful purposes". Meanwhile, senior Turkish military men were also quoted as saying that "if attacked, Turkish troops will respond."
The Arab press gave prominent space to the reluctance expressed by Arab officials towards the Turkish plan. Among those quoted was Jordan's King Abdullah. "Iraq's neighbours, including Turkey, should refrain from interfering in Iraq's affairs. "No neighbouring country should play an active role in Iraq because they all have agendas of their own," Abdullah was quoted as saying in the daily Addustour of Jordan.
Also reported as a sign of possible tension in Iraq was the decision by leading Shi'ite leader Muqtada Al-Sadr to form a shadow government. Unlike the Iraqi Interim Governing Council, Al-Sadr hinted that his shadow government would not be affiliated with the occupation forces. This prompted several commentators to warn against possible inter-Iraqi power games or worse.
Parallel to these many signs of confusion, news reported from New York on negotiations leading to a possible new UN resolution on Iraq indicated that more time was required before the resolution -- that many hope will bring more stability in Iraq -- is tabled. The international community debated the kind of role the UN should play in Iraq by virtue of this new resolution.
Meanwhile, stories filed from both Washington and Iraqi cities said many US soldiers were suffering from depression and that some had even committed suicide.
"It is this huge failure of the US in Iraq that has prompted the US to threaten Syria, to serve as a national agenda in the lead-up to presidential elections... The US administration is trying to garner support from the American people," commented Bilal Al-Hassan in the Moroccan paper Al-Haqa'eq. Al-Hassan's article, which appeared on Sunday, warned of the consequences of this US policy not only for Syria but for the entire Arab region.
A similar line was adopted by Syrian officials. Hassan Al- Turkomani, Syria's chief of staff, was quoted this week as saying that the US intention to impose sanctions on Syria by way of the Syria Accountability Act, plus Washington's tolerance of last week's Israeli military aggression against Syria were meant "to cover up for its failure in the Middle East". According to Al- Turkomani's statements that were given prominence by Asharq Al- Awsat on Monday, "Washington failed to bring stability to Iraq or have the roadmap be implemented by Israelis and Palestinians, and now it is threatening Syria to divert the attention of American public opinion."
News of Syria almost always runs in tandem with the news of Lebanon. On Monday, the Lebanese daily An-Nahar quoted political sources as indicating that "Syria will pull its troops out of Lebanon in the near future -- perhaps in 2004 or 2005 -- meaning that Lebanon will have its full sovereignty and independence restored." Along with this story An-Nahar, like a few other Lebanese dailies, ran opinion pieces by writers who wondered about the future of Lebanon in the post-Syria era.
For many commentators in the Arab press, the implications of either Israel or the US harassing Syria made the situation extremely complicated. On Sunday, the London-based daily Al-Hayat published an opinion piece by Salah Bashir who suggested that the Israeli attack on Syria was simply the beginning of a new era in the Middle East. According to Bashir's analysis, the Middle East has gone through the military conflict phase from between 1948 to 1973. It then passed through the phase of peace -- no matter how cold -- starting from the mid-1970s up until last week when Syria was attacked by Israel for the first time since the end of the 1973 War.
"[Israeli Prime Minister] Ariel Sharon said, and we have to take him seriously, that the strike against Syria was not an isolated act," Bashir said. "He was right: it is the beginning of a new strategy by Israel."
As evidence that Israel's strategy could well be military-oriented, on Sunday, the London-based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi joined some dailies in the Arab world in reprinting an article originally carried by the Los Angeles Times that said Israel had modified US-made Cruise missiles to enable them to carry nuclear warheads. And like other Arab publications, Al-Quds Al-Arabi warned that the missiles might be used to attack targets in Iran.
The following day Al-Quds Al-Arabi carried another story suggesting that Sharon had ordered his intelligence service a couple of months ago to prepare a plan to raid Iranian nuclear facilities.
In reply, Abdullah Ramadan Zadeh, a spokesman for the Iranian government was quoted on Monday by Al-Bayan, the daily of the United Arab Emirates, as saying that "Iran will use all the power it has against any foreign threats. Everybody knows better than to start something with us."
Other parts of the Middle East did not offer the Arab press more upbeat stories. In Sudan, the Khartoum government made headway towards a peace deal with its major rival, the Sudanese Popular Liberation Army (SPLA). However, it was faced with increasing resistance by many other opposition groups who accused the ruling regime in Sudan of making peace with the SPLA under US pressure while ignoring other opposition groups because they are not supported by the US.
Sudanese commentators and other Arab writers warned that the peace deal that is currently being pursued by the Khartoum regime and the SPLA "might be taking Sudan into ambiguity". The new peace deal, they warned, could lead to a disastrous separation of Sudan into two states: a predominantly Muslim country in the north and a majority non-Muslim country in the south. Moreover, commentators warned of the nature of the
peace deal, based as it is on the sheer division of power and wealth between the government and the SPLA rather than on reform to which many Sudanese had been aspiring.
Further south, the Arab dailies carried news on Sunday of the inability of Somali transitional President Abdel-Qassim Salad to travel overseas after being prevented by his bodyguards because they had not yet been paid.
Further west, in Algeria, the standoff between Algerian President Abdel-Aziz Boutafliqa and his once close ally Ali Bin Felis and the impact this political rift was having made headlines in the Arab affairs pages throughout the week. On Sunday, Asharq Al-Awsat quoted Khaled Nizar, a former Algerian minister of defence, as saying that Boutafliqa "has to go since he has become a threat to Algerian security". Nizar based his argument on what he found to be too lenient a policy adopted by the Algerian president towards Islamists.
The little good news that appeared in the Arab press this week came from Morocco where the government was pursuing measures to give women more rights. In Kuwait as well, measures were being taken to allow women to participate in the country's first municipal elections. And in Saudi Arabia, the country was readying to hold its first ever municipal elections.
