Academic controversy
Despite reported polls, Palestinians and Israelis remain sharply divided over the detail of the so-called Geneva Accords, Khaled Amayreh reports
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The arm of an unknown Palestinian takes a hold amid the barbed wire of the separation wall, evoking the symbol of the raised fist, here in defiance of the physical barriers established by the State of Israel
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According to a poll published Sunday, 53 per cent of Israelis and nearly 55 per cent of Palestinians said they would generally support the Geneva Accords, formulated last month in Switzerland by former Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. Forty-four per cent of Israelis and 39 per cent of the Palestinians said they would oppose any deal based on the draft.
The poll, conducted by the Texas-based Baker Institute for Public Policy in cooperation with the International Crisis Group in Washington, surveyed the opinions of 610 Israelis and 631 Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. The poll has been hailed by the signatories of the Geneva draft as a vindication of their efforts. PA official Yasser Abed Rabbo, a co-author of the accords, said the poll showed that a solid majority of Palestinians were in favour of peace with Israel based on a two-state solution. Similar statements were made by Israeli opposition figures who argued that a majority of Israelis would still support a historical settlement with the Palestinians based on the land-for-peace formula.
Edward Djerjian, a former US ambassador to Israel and Syria and now director of the Baker Institute, also hailed the poll as a breakthrough. "This poll is a timely reminder of the fact that a majority of Israelis and Palestinians are prepared to embrace an agreement that meets the respective core aspirations and interests of both sides," he said.
However, the poll itself should not be taken at face value as it suffers from serious structural defects which makes it less than representative, particularly of the Palestinian side. For example, all of the Palestinian respondents surveyed are living in the occupied territories, and most of them have not lost homes or are enduring the misery of homelessness. In other words, the poll probably deliberately ignored the estimated 4.5 million Palestinian refugees living in exile who make up to 50 per cent of Palestinians, a fact that casts doubt on its credibility and reliability.
The views of this huge mass of Palestinians, most of whom have been living in squalid refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan for decades, while many others still wander from one country to the other because of their stateless status, should have been taken into account.
The fact that the survey practically ignored them makes it significantly unrepresentative of Palestinian views, especially on so paramount an issue as the right of return. Palestinian refugees living in UNRWA-run camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip practically all cling to the right of return. A few weeks ago, a survey of opinions at the Fawwar refugee camp, 12 kilometres south west of Hebron, showed that 90 per cent of the camp's 8,000 inhabitants strongly insist on repatriation to their original hometowns and villages in what is now Israel.
Additionally, on the subject of Jerusalem, and the Islamic and Jewish holy places therein, this week's poll was somewhat vague. Though respondents were positive when asked if they would support an arrangement whereby Palestinians and Israelis would control and run their respective holy sites, little clarity was given to the issue, especially in regard to Haram Al- Sharif, home to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam's third holiest shrine, which many Jews claim to be holy to them as well. Along with the refugee question, it was this issue, of who would bear ultimate sovereignty over Haram Al-Sharif, that caused the collapse of the Camp David talks between the PA and the Barak government, contributing to the rise of Ariel Sharon.
The fact that the Geneva document itself is not very precise about these two issues, or on other important issues such as the number of Jewish settlements to be annexed into Israel, as well as what is exactly meant by "Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem", suggest that the Geneva document still needs significant polishing which would require further arduous negotiations. At any rate, the very issue of the Geneva Accords is still academic in nature given that the present Israeli government rejected it out of hand. Some members of the Israeli coalition government went as far as calling the former Israeli officials who co-signed it "traitors who should be hanged".
In all, it is difficult to imagine that the Geneva Accords will have any serious chance of being adopted as long as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon remains in power. Indeed, Sharon did not formally accept, even yet, the far less innocuous American-backed "roadmap" peace plan. By insisting that 14 crippling reservations be attached to the Israeli government's decision to "accept" it, he rendered that acceptance disingenuous.
On the Palestinian side, the Geneva Accords have raised some interest among PA officials and academics. According to reliable sources, PA chairman Yasser Arafat "effectively accepts" the draft in principle. However, he and other PA leaders seem unwilling at this point to risk a serious rift in Palestinian society for the sake of an unofficial document that the Israelis have utterly rejected and the Americans are not particularly enthusiastic about.
This position was expressed this week by Rafik Natshe, speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, during a visit to his hometown of Hebron. "This is an unofficial document which no Palestinian Authority institution has adopted or supported so far," said Natshe during a lecture at the Hebron Cultural Forum on Thursday. "Let us first see what the Israelis are saying about it. In fact they have rejected it, so why should we busy ourselves discussing it and make heated debates about it?" Natshe ruled out the possibility of any breakthrough towards peace as long as Ariel Sharon remains in power, whom he described as "having a mentality that is alien to peace".
"We are facing a racist, criminal and Nazi-like regime that flies in the face of international law. Therefore, there is no hope for any real breakthrough as long as [Sharon] remains at the helm of Israeli politics," he said.
Meanwhile, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, as well as other populist organisations in the Gaza Strip, demonstrated vociferously against the Geneva Accords, calling it a "suspect and treacherous document".
On Friday, thousands of Palestinians took to the streets in Gaza to protest against the accords, particularly those sections that deny Palestinian refugees the right to return to their hometowns from which they were expelled by Israel upon its creation more 55 years ago. During the protest, several Islamic and nationalist leaders spoke strongly against the Palestinian co-signatories of the accords, calling them "traitors".
"Those who signed it represent themselves and nobody else," said Mohamed Al-Hindi, a prominent official of Islamic Jihad.
Hamas founder and spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, took part in the demonstration and reiterated the view that the right of return is "the Palestinian issue".
"If we were to choose between clinging to the right of return and having a Palestinian state we would choose the right of return," he said. "We will not sell out our rights."
