The locusts have landed
Following reports of a deadly locust outbreak in Sudan,
Yasmine Fathy questions how safe Egypt is from attack swarms
A locust invasion can be devastating to crops
photo: Emil Karam
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According to reports, 12 people were killed and hundreds injured as locusts swarmed through Sudan last month. As huge groups headed north towards Egypt, the Egyptian press warned that the country was at grave risk of a locust outbreak. Later, news broke of the insects' arrival in Tushka and Sharq Al-Ewaynat in southern Egypt.
The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation's (FAO) monthly desert locust bulletin confirmed that locust activity had been observed in Egypt. The December 2003 bulletin reported that locusts had been observed on the shores of Lake Nasser and in Tushka, as well as in the Western Desert near Baris.
Christian Pantenius of the FAO Regional Office for the Near East dismissed reports by some newspapers that locusts are killing and injuring people in Sudan, calling such reports "outrageous". "The casualties in Sudan might have been caused by something else, and it's the job of the Sudanese Ministry of Health to find out. But I can say with confidence that these cases have nothing to do with locusts," he told Al-Ahram Weekly. Pantenius insisted that locusts are not lethal, as they are not poisonous and they damage vegetation, not people.
High rainfall and humidity provide ideal breeding conditions for locusts. Pantenius confirmed that an outbreak is likely this year. Solitary locusts in Sudan managed to form swarms due to large amounts of rainfall this season; they migrate in huge numbers of between 50 million and 400 million insects. In the winter, desert locusts migrate from Sudan to Egypt, settling along the Red Sea coast. During the summer, the African migratory locust usually invades the southwestern region of Egypt, particularly Tushka and Sharq Al-Ewaynat.
Swarms of locusts migrate around Egypt with the help of intertropical convergence zone winds -- areas where the wind always blows in the same direction. "Egypt is a transit area, so the pattern is usually Sudan-Egypt-Saudi Arabia, or Sudan-Saudi Arabia-Egypt. But the journey never starts in Egypt," explained Mohamed Abdel-Rahman, general manager of the Desert Locust Control and Agro Aviation Department in the Ministry of Agriculture.
The threat to agricultural production is the chief reason why a locust invasion might send infected countries into a panic. According to Pantenius, a mature locust can eat one to two times it body weight per day. "A large swarm can cover several square kilometres and weigh tens of thousands of tonnes. So can you imagine what kind of damage they can cause to an agricultural area?" he said.
Abdel-Azim El-Gammal, senior researcher at the Locust and Grasshopper Research Institute in the Ministry of Agriculture, painted a more calamitous picture. "If there is a swarm of 400 million locusts, they can eat about 80,000 tonnes -- enough to feed 20 million people," he said. However, he added, a swarm of locusts raging through Egypt that size is highly unlikely.
Egypt has been protected from locust outbreaks over the past few years due to high levels of alert maintained by the government and national locust control units.
"As soon as we heard reports of the locust outbreak in Sudan, the Egyptian locust control units managed to put the necessary precautions into place in the south," El-Gammal said. According to El-Gammal, 500 agricultural engineers and technicians monitor the desert for locust activity. Furthermore, according to Abdel-Rahman of the Desert Locust Control and Agro Aviation Department, most of Egypt's governorates are monitored by 13 main locust resistance bases and 53 branch offices. Each main base has a staff of 120 personnel, including locust officers, technical staff and drivers equipped with sprayers and pesticides. "All this prevents solitary locusts from becoming swarms. The danger starts only when they form swarms," explained El-Gammal.
This level of alert has not always existed. In the past, during periods in which there was no widespread locust activity, locust control was not a priority, and the level of expertise dropped as a result. "The locust control services lose their qualified staff and they lose their knowledge of how to deal with this pest. The material is no longer up to date and services to monitor the breeding areas are scarcely carried out. When there is an outbreak, it takes the government by surprise," explained Pantenius.
However, in 1994 FAO established an Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases to minimise the risk of such emergencies. The EMPRES programme encourages the national locust units of the member countries around the Red Sea coast to maintain a certain level of alert, monitor breeding areas and be prepared for an outbreak.
The worst locust invasion of Egypt in modern times occurred between 1986 and 1989, during which time at least 20 swarms covering 400 kilometres reached southern Egypt. In the late 1950s, a few swarms were able to reach Cairo. According to Pantenius, a repeat of these cases is unlikely due to early detection and response. "One thing which was not possible during the 1950s is the ability to monitor, via SPOT satellites, the green areas that can be infected. Through the satellite pictures we monitor the weather and rainfall, and see if it resulted in the greening up of the desert. Then we report the information to the FAO headquarters and distribute it to all concerned countries," he explained.
Despite these technological advancements and vigilance, the danger of a locust invasion looms. According to Abdel-Rahman, if the weather conditions remain, the Ministry of Agriculture might have to dip into its emergency fund. "You should never underestimate locusts. No matter how stable the situation seems you never know when swarms of them will come flying into the country," he said.
