South Asia:
Hope amid uncertainty
Peace -- and the lack thereof -- were dominant themes throughout South Asia in 2003. In Sri Lanka , a peace agreement seemed tantalisingly close after both the government and the Tamil Tigers took important steps towards ending a decades-long conflict that has claimed the lives of over 64,000 people.
The Tigers announced they would settle for regional autonomy instead of a fully independent state and, for their part, the Sri Lankan government agreed to negotiate a power sharing arrangement with the Tigers. That progress was thrown in doubt, however, after a simmering government dispute between Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe exploded into a full scale political crisis in which Kumaratunga suspended parliament, sacked three ministers and placed peace talks with the Tamils on hold. The move was generally seen as an internal power struggle between Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe over who should lead the peace negotiations. While the situation has calmed down somewhat, talks between the Tigers and the government remain shrouded in uncertainty.
In November, India held elections in four key states across the country. The elections were widely regarded as a testing ground for India's two main political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, in the run-up to next year's general election. The BJP, which currently heads a coalition governing the country, scored important victories in three of the four states, much to the chagrin of those who fear that a strong BJP showing next year would further fuel a growing nationalistic agenda and worsen Muslim-Hindu tension in India.
Hindu-Muslim tensions were of course also important in the ongoing dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Although attacks and raids along the border continued, it was a far cry from last year when the two countries teetered on the brink of war. This year in fact ended with a dénouement of sorts with India and Pakistan agreeing to restore key travel routes between the two countries.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf then took matters one step further in December when, in a surprise move, he announced that he was willing to put aside the issue of a referendum in Kashmir, a major stumbling block in relations. India has responded warmly, if not cautiously, and both leaders agreed to meet when Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee travels to Islamabad for a regional conference in January.
Musharraf's peace offerings carry an enormous personal risk. His crackdown on Islamic extremists and continued cooperation with the United States has made him powerful enemies, some of whom almost succeeded in assassinating him in December. The sophistication of the timing and bombs used in the attempt on his life fuelled speculation that it may be the work of Al-Qa'eda, whose leader, Osama Bin Laden, remains at large in spite of a massive US led manhunt in the region.
Political stability in Afghanistan was hampered by continued security concerns. While no one is sure exactly where Bin Laden is, many experts believe he is hiding in the mountainous region that straddles the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. That Bin Laden is still free is a powerful indicator of the dire situation still facing the government in Afghanistan. While the newly elected Loya Jirga struggles to complete Afghanistan's new constitution, the security outside of Kabul remains abysmal. Despite efforts the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which is now led by NATO, a renewed surge of violence in the northern and eastern parts threatens to further destabilise the country. In November, the UN signalled that they would withdraw from the country if the security situation does not improve.
Reviewed by Jaideep Mukerji
