Target dodge
Earlier in 2003 bets were divided between Syria and Iran as to which would be target number three in the US "war against terror". By year's end Tehran had masterfully dodged the potential bullet. Rasha Saad reviews a turbulent year in Iran
2003 has been a crucial year for Iranians, with the heavyweight Gulf country managing to brave a sea of domestic, regional and international troubles.
The US-led invasion of Iraq, the amassing of considerable US forces in Iraq coupled with the nuclear proliferation drama between the US, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) led most observers to believe Iran would be the next US target.
However, Iran earned plaudits both at home and abroad after managing to avoid being on the receiving end of international sanctions -- not to mention giving the US an excuse to turn up the heat -- by signing the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on 19 December. The agreement requires Iran to submit to intrusive, surprise UN inspections of its nuclear and research facilities.
The turning point came when Iran agreed in October -- some time before the 31 October deadline set by the agency -- to the European Union foreign ministers' requests to sign on the dotted line. Iran also announced it would suspend its uranium enrichment operations.
Iran had been generally cooperative on the issue of nuclear inspections ever since IAEA Chief Mohamed El-Baradie first arrived in Tehran to carry out inspections at nuclear sites on 21 February. Reaction on the ground in Iran ranged from threats to pull out of the IAEA, announcing intentions to sign the agreement only under certain conditions, and then finally agreeing to sign on IAEA terms but without the imposition of a deadline.
Iran finally managed to garner European support for its case during a visit by the British, French and German foreign ministers, who offered to support Iran during the IAEA meetings and agreed not to refer the case to the UN Security Council.
They also promised to supply Tehran with the nuclear technology required for peaceful purposes -- a condition requested by Iran before signing the protocol, but rejected by the US at the time.
Moreover, by cooperating with the IAEA, Iran was referred to in favourable terms in El-Baradie's report issued in November. The report stated that despite criticism of Tehran's failure to fully comply with its obligations under the NPT, no evidence was found linking Iran's previously undeclared nuclear material and activities to a nuclear weapons programme.
The Europeans also had a lot to gain. In addition to being awarded commercial contracts in Iran, the Europeans achieved a diplomatic victory, one much needed at the time to counter their marginalised role in relation to the situation in Iraq.
Israel was also an important player in the Iranian nuclear saga. Israel had often been more vocal than the US in accusing Tehran of developing nuclear weapons in secret despite Iranian insistence that its nuclear programme was for civilian purposes, such as electricity production. On Sunday, a few days after Iran signed the Additional Protocol, Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz said Israel was considering initiating an operation to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities, assuring people also that the "necessary steps will be taken so that Iranian citizens will not be harmed".
The statement came one month after Meir Dagan, head of Israel's Mossad intelligence service, said that Iran's nuclear programme posed the biggest threat to the existence of Israel since 1948.
He also stated that Israel had discovered evidence in recent months that Iran was close to finishing construction of a uranium enrichment plant in the central Kashan area, which could eventually provide capacity to build around a dozen nuclear bombs.
In July, Israel also revealed that Iran had successfully tested the Shehab-3 missile, which has a range great enough to reach Israel. Iran later confirmed the news, with the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards stating on 20 July that his force was now "ready to defend Iran against any threat". This was taken as a reference to Israel.
However, Iranian analysts contend that both the US and Israel may have to think twice before striking Iran since Iranian influence now extends from Najaf in Iraq -- a nod to Iranian relations with the Iraqi Shi'ites -- to Sheb'a farms in Lebanon -- referring to relations with Hizbullah.
But Iranian officials are not in a position to take chances. According to Iranian Vice-President Mohamed Abtahi, Iran is preceding cautiously. "We are not prepared for war with anyone and are working to refute any pretexts for any escalation. Cooperating with the IAEA and signing the additional protocol is just one example," he said.
Indeed, this year Iran cooperated with the US on a number of issues including operations in Iraq and the containment of regional reaction to a recent Israeli strike in Syria -- Iran's ally. Officials from both countries have been meeting in Geneva to discuss the Iraq situation and other issues.
Iran remained bitter, however, about US ingratitude with it efforts to cooperate. This ingratitude was evident on the nuclear issue, and even more so in US reaction to the student demonstrations which began in Tehran in June and swept through several cities in Iran.
Both Secretary of State Colin Powell and President George Bush applauded the demonstrations, with Bush referring to them as "the beginning of people expressing themselves, towards a free Iran".
Iran accused the US of lending support to the students and using the movement as a pretext for regime change.
That particular wave of protests was not regarded as popular as the demonstration in 1999 -- the first since the Islamic Revolution -- which was regarded as more significant. While students in both demonstrations were calling for reform and an end to corruption, the 1999 protesters focussed their wrath on the Iranian leadership, even going as far as requesting them to step down. This year the students also targeted reformists, including President Mohamed Khatami. During the demonstrations they ignored Khatami's pleas to end the protests; the students told their president that he should protect them or resign. Khatami, on the other hand, condemned the confrontational attitude of the protesters and accused them of wanting to undermine the regime.
During the demonstrations, Iranian-Canadian relations experienced some tension after the Canadian-Iranian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi died while in Iranian police custody in July. Kazemi was arrested on 23 June while taking photographs outside Evin prison in Tehran during the student-led protests. She was later taken into custody and interrogated by police, prosecutors and intelligence officials for 77 hours. Iran's official news agency reports that Kazemi "suffered a stroke when she was subject to interrogation and died in hospital". The same day, under pressure from Canada, President Khatami ordered an investigation into her death. Iran's handling of the investigation -- and the decision to bury Kazemi in Iran -- drew negative reaction from Canada and Canadian Ambassador Philip MacKinnon was recalled from Iran. Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham called the move "a strong indication in diplomatic terms of the complete dissatisfaction of one government with another government". On October 28, the Iranian Parliament implicated Saeed Mortazavi, chief Tehran prosecutor, for failing to provide information and submitting incorrect statements about the death of Kazemi. Mortazavi is charged with refusing to justify Kazemi's detention to Parliament, accusing Kazemi of spying and announcing the cause of her death as a stroke.
Against the backdrop of such internal instability, Iranian human rights activist and lawyer Shirin Abadi was awarded this year's Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel Committee members justified their selection in a statement saying that, "Abadi represented the face of moderate Islam and her interpretation conforms to democratic values and equality before the law." The message was believed to be directed at the clerical system, hinting that Europe will continue to pressurise Iran on the issue of human rights.
The award, announced in late October, took many by surprise, including many Iranians, proving controversial enough to overshadow even the nuclear talks. Many felt other figures such as Pope John Paul II were more deserving of the award. Inside Iran, public opinion was sharply divided between reformists, who were generally pleased with choice of Abadi, and the conservatives, who resented attention being focussed on the human rights situation in Iran. Abadi, who was welcomed with flowers by thousands of Iranians after attending a press conference soon after the announcement, has been sharply criticised by conservatives for appearing in Paris with her hair uncovered. She was also attacked earlier this month by supporters of the conservatives during a press conference in Iran shortly before travelling to Oslo to receive the prize. Abadi had to cancel the conference.
Some Iranian reformists believed that Hashem Aghajari, the symbol of the reformist movement who is now in detention for defying the religious authorities, should have received the award.
The year also witnessed a rift develop in UK-Iranian relations over the arrest of Iran's former envoy to Argentina in Britain in August. An Argentine warrant had been issued for his arrest on charges of aiding and providing cover to those behind the car bombing of the Argentine Jewish Mutual Association in 1994, which left 85 people dead and 300 injured. Solimanpour was released on bail of £730,000 ($1.22 million) -- paid in part by the Iranian government. On 12 November, Britain turned down an Argentine request for extradition.
