Oiling the wheels of Sudan
The year is over, no final agreement was reached as widely anticipated, but the south is no longer the problem in Sudan; the war has shifted to the western part of the country, writes Gamal Nkrumah
Sudanese officials hope that the country's new oil wealth will fund development and reconstruction projects, attract foreign investment and improve socio-economic conditions in the vast country, Africa's largest.
Meanwhile, peace talks in Kenya between Sudanese Vice President Ali Othman Taha and John Garang, leader of country's largest armed opposition group, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), are advancing at a slow pace. The two parties were scheduled to sign a final pace agreement by the end of the year, but both parties now talk of reaching a final settlement in late January or early February. Some progress has been made, however, and it was reported that the two sides reached a tentative agreement to divide oil revenues.
The Sudanese government and the SPLA have also renewed their commitment to instituting a federal structure in Sudan whereby the country would be divided into two separate administrative units -- north and south -- as stipulated by the Machakos Protocols signed in Kenya in July 2002. Under the Protocols, the Sudanese government agreed in principle that the southern Sudanese be allowed to hold a referendum on secession after six years of power sharing in a transitional government of national unity. The status of the federal capital Khartoum is still disputed. The Sudanese government wants the capital to be subject to Islamic Shari'a laws, while the SPLA insists on a secular national capital.
There is also disagreement over the political fate of three remote regions in the border region between northern and southern Sudan that the SPLA says are politically marginalised and economically disadvantaged -- the Nuba Mountains in southern Kordofan, the Abeyei region in western Kordofan, and the Ingassena region of southern Blue Nile.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the umbrella opposition organisation grouping the SPLA and other mainly northern Sudanese opposition parties, is not officially taking part in the peace talks in Kenya. There are indications, however, that the Sudanese government wants to involve the NDA in the political reform process. Sudanese Vice President Taha met with NDA President Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia last month and signed a memorandum of understanding. The Sudanese president described the agreement with the NDA as "a significant step towards peace and democracy".
Senior members of the NDA want the organisation and northern opposition parties to play a more meaningful role in governing the country.
"We in the NDA would like to have a bigger say in the political future of Sudan," Farouk Abu Eissa, the head of the Cairo- based Arab Lawyers Union and official spokesman for the NDA told Al-Ahram Weekly.
NDA political figures also believe that the time is ripe for radical political change in Sudan. The country is ready for multi- party democracy, they say. "The regime feels trapped, but they want to find a solution to the problems of the country," Abu Eissa said. "In the end they will agree on everything."
The Sudanese peace talks are taking place under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD), a regional organisation which groups seven East African countries, including Sudan.
Even though IGAD is officially organising the Sudanese peace talks, Washington's pivotal behind-the-scenes role cannot be underestimated or downplayed.
In another significant development signalling the rapprochement between Washington and Khartoum, United States President George W Bush called the Sudanese President Omar Al- Beshir.
According to official Sudanese sources, President Bush commended the willingness of the two parties of the conflict to make peace in Sudan and congratulated Beshir on the progress made thus far in the Sudan peace process. Official Sudanese sources also said that Bush was watching the Sudanese peace process closely. He confirmed to President Beshir that he would remain involved until the Sudanese achieved peace in their country. Bush also is reported to have told Beshir that he would be glad to receive him at the White House if and when a final peace agreement is concluded between the Sudanese government and the SPLA. Sudanese opposition delegates frequently visited Washington in 2003.
For his part, Beshir profusely thanked Bush for his "personal involvement" in the Sudanese peace process. He told Bush that, without the "deep involvement" of the Bush administration, "we would have not accomplished what we have accomplished today."
But as prospects for peace in the south improve, conflict in western Sudan threatens to embroil the country in another civil war. The Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), not to be confused with the southern Sudanese-based SPLA, is the chief armed opposition group in the war-torn Darfur region in western Sudan and they are threatening to scrap a cease-fire deal signed last month. The deal had heightened hopes of a peaceful resolution to the armed uprisings in Darfur, one of Sudan's poorest provinces. But tensions persist and the other main Darfur armed opposition group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has so far refused to conclude a peace deal with the Sudanese government.
Unlike the secularist and leftist SLA, JEM is a militant Islamist organisation reputedly linked to the Popular National Congress Party (PNC) of Sudanese Islamist ideologue and former speaker of the Sudanese Parliament, Hassan Al-Turabi.
Much the same as in northern Sudan, the vast majority of Darfur's population is Muslim, but, like in southern Sudan, it is predominantly not Arabised and hold on to their non-Arab ethnic identities and languages.
In spite of persisting political problems, the economic situation in Sudan is looking brighter than it has been for decades. 2004 promises to be a year of plenty. Peace dividends and increased oil revenues promise to transform Sudan from an economic backwater to a thriving economy. Last week, the SPLA and the Sudanese government reached a rough agreement on sharing the proceeds from the country's oil production, currently at 300, 000 barrels per day. Foreign companies are lured by Sudan's promising economic future.
Sudan is still in the red, but the Sudanese are nonetheless optimistic about the rosy world that lays ahead of them. Sudan stands poised to reap the benefits of its new found oil wealth. In an unprecedented upbeat report, the governor of Sudan's central bank, Sabir Mohamed Al-Hassan, told reporters in Khartoum that the country's export revenues are to reach $2.43 billion by the end of the year. The country's new found oil wealth will bring in the bulk of the foreign exchange earnings.
According to the official Sudanese daily Al-Anbaa, Al- Hassan told the National Assembly last week that petroleum exports would bring in $1.96 billion, nearly equal to Sudan's total export earnings last year, which amounted to $1.98 billion. All other exports combined would bring in $472 million, he was quoted as saying.
Sudan's import bill is still substantial and the country runs a balance of payments deficit in spite of its oil exports. However, the gap between Sudanese imports and exports has narrowed considerably. The governor of the Sudanese central bank predicted that imports would reach $2.82 billion by the end of this year compared to $2.45 billion the previous year. He also noted that foreign investment which was stood at $600 million in the first half of 2003, is expected to exceed $1 billion by year's end.
Southern Sudanese are being encouraged to play a more prominent economic role in the country. Governor Al- Hassan revealed that the central bank plans to train personnel from southern Sudan once a permanent peace settlement is concluded.
