The Hutton inquiry

IT IS a truism in British politics that a public inquiry's final report never lives up to the impact of the hearings. Lord Hutton, whose inquiry investigated the government's role in the suicide of Iraq expert David Kelly, is due to publish his final report any day now. Tony Blair will be hoping convention prevails.

He has some well-founded reasons for optimism. For one, it is hard to imagine a final report as dramatic as the evidence. Over the summer, the British political classes were gripped by hearings that exposed the machinations at the heart of the government in unprecedented detail. The inquiry examined two key questions: first, whether the prime minister's office was responsible for "outing" Dr Kelly to the media after he spoke to BBC journalist Andrew Gilligan, and second, whether Dr Kelly's allegation that the Blair government had "sexed up" its evidence on Iraq's weapons was correct. On both counts, the government's case was found wanting, but Blair rode out the storm.

The British prime minister will also take heart from the fact that he was not called back to the second round of hearings -- a clear indication that Lord Hutton would place the blame elsewhere.

But there are several good reasons why Mr Blair should be worried nonetheless. First, when the hearings were taking place the prime minister enjoyed the benefit of the doubt over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). No longer. Last weekend Blair finally conceded that the weapons might not have existed; this after months of telling sceptics to "wait and see". Most of Blair's core supporters backed him over Iraq because of his personal conviction on Iraq's WMD. Many now feel betrayed -- not to mention a little foolish.

Second, Blair is a far weaker leader now than he was in the summer. Only twelve months ago his authority was unassailable. Nowadays, his Labour Party is riven with rebellion; the one expected on 27 January over university "top-up" fees could well be the most damaging yet.

Third, the most damning evidence against Blair was held back to the very last. Kevin Tebbit, the Ministry of Defence's chief civil servant, told the inquiry that the decision to name Dr Kelly was taken at a meeting in which Blair was present. This flatly contradicted Blair's emphatic denial, which formed the basis of the government's defence.

The fourth reason Blair might be quaking in his boots is Michael Howard, the new opposition leader. Over the last few weeks Howard has been carefully ratcheting up the pressure over Dr Kelly, causing the prime minister visible discomfort. Few doubt that Howard's attack in the Commons debate itself will be merciless.

For politicians -- and the media -- the tension surrounding the Hutton report springs from how little is known about what it will contain. In the leaky world of Westminster, Lord Hutton has made sure that nothing emerges -- not even to the government -- until the report is published. No one is sure even when the report will be published.

Over recent months commentators have contrasted the fresh-faced Blair when he came to power with the creased and sallow features of the prime minister today. Those lines will surely deepen in the tense weeks ahead.