Musharraf's nuclear nightmare
Investigations into Pakistan's nuclear programme has opened up a whole new can of worms, writes Iffat Idris from Islamabad
The controversy over Pakistan's nuclear programme continues unabated. First, there was the issue of whether Pakistan had a weapons programme and how advanced it was. That question was definitively resolved by the nuclear tests of May 1998. Since then the predominant issue has been that of proliferation -- the international community has long suspected Pakistan of aiding, at some level, other countries seeking nuclear weapons, with North Korea, Iran and Libya being the prime suspects. In 2002, American spy satellites took photographs of a Pakistani truck unloading parts at a North Korean plant.
The latest controversy also relates to proliferation -- the possibility that Pakistani nuclear scientists may have been selling nuclear technology to other countries. It was triggered by the agreement, first by Iran and then by Libya, to open their nuclear programmes to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Subsequent examinations in Iran and Libya suggested nuclear technology had been imported from Pakistan.
The IAEA revelations triggered an inquiry within Pakistan. It started on a small scale with the detention of a prominent scientist and an administrator from the Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) at Kahuta. KRL is the premier nuclear technology research facility in Pakistan. Official statements suggested that the two were simply being held for "debriefing". But since then the net has widened to take in several dozen scientists and officials connected to Pakistan's nuclear programme.
The most prominent figure to be questioned is Abdul-Qadeer Khan, after whom the Kahuta facility is named. He is currently being held under effective house arrest, and his name has been put on the Exit Control List. Now retired, Khan is regarded as the "father of the bomb" in Pakistan. While working in Europe, he acquired the uranium enrichment technology that is crucial to any nuclear programme and that Pakistan had until then been unable to obtain. Back in Pakistan, he was given a free hand by the government to develop nuclear weapons.
Khan's inclusion in the "debriefing" makes it clear that a full investigation is underway. Confirmation of this also came during the World Economic Forum at Davos. In an interview with CNN, President Pervez Musharraf admitted that it was possible some scientists could have been involved in proliferation for personal profit. He said some "unscrupulous individuals" could have exploited the autonomy they were given to develop Pakistan's nuclear programme. This admission marked a massive shift from Pakistan's traditional stance that no technology transfer took place at all.
But President Musharraf was adamant that whatever proliferation took place was by individual scientists, without any official complicity in technology transfer to other countries. Others are sceptical about that claim. The high degree of security that constantly surrounds those involved in Pakistan's nuclear programme makes it very difficult to see how technology transfer could have taken place without official knowledge. This is certainly the view of the scientists' families, who accuse the government of sacrificing the scientists as scapegoats to appease international opinion.
Even if the international community accepts Musharraf's claims that any proliferation was carried out solely by individuals, there are still problems for Pakistan. This explanation implies grave weaknesses in the security around Pakistan's nuclear programme and devices. The West has long been concerned that those devices or technology could fall into the hands of extremists, Islamist or otherwise. After the current revelations about scientists' selling technology, the Pakistani government will have to work even harder to reassure the international community that its nuclear programme is safe and secure.
The ace card that Musharraf holds is that the West badly needs him for its "war on terror". This ensures that, even if there is scepticism about the claim that scientists acted without government approval or involvement, the West will stay quiet. Provided the Pakistani government takes strong action today against its "errant" scientists, the international community will allow past misdemeanours by previous governments to slip by.
But that only solves the international problems for the Musharraf government -- it still faces domestic problems. The Pakistani public regards the nuclear scientists, and particularly Khan, as national heroes. Until a few months ago, so too did the Pakistani government. How can the government make such a dramatic U-turn from feting Khan and his colleagues as heroes to treating them as venal traitors? The public mood to date suggests that they blame the government -- seen as giving in to American pressure -- rather than Khan and the other scientists.
The government is trying to change the public's mood by leaking damaging information about the scientists in the press, saying recently that Khan has multi-million dollar accounts in Dubai. The president, interior minister, information minister and other senior figures have also been making repeated statements that anyone found responsible for selling sensitive information for monetary gain will be held accountable. "No patriotic Pakistani should even think of selling out Pakistan. There was a time when they used to call themselves heroes of Pakistan. But now the real face of some of these heroes is being exposed. We will take legal action against them," declared Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat. On Saturday Khan was dismissed from his (admittedly nominal) role as adviser to the prime minister. All this is to prepare the public for the possibility that Khan and others could be arrested.
The other strategy Musharraf is pursuing, both to appease opinion at home and to defuse international criticism, is to point out that many others are involved in the "nuclear black market". He has singled out Malaysia and, even more daringly, European countries, in this regard. Some of these claims have been confirmed by Mohamed El- Baradei, head of the IAEA: "What we are seeing is a very sophisticated network of black-market proliferators; people who are selling material underground." The Pakistani president questioned why Pakistan is being interrogated about nuclear proliferation, while European breaches pass in silence. He also emphasised that "we are the only country that is really going forward with an investigation."
The final problem for the government, even if the Pakistani public can be appeased, is what action to take against the scientists. A public trial could open up a Pandora's box of damaging information about how Pakistan acquired its own nuclear technology. The same concern -- as well as the fact that it would be deeply unpopular -- rules out sending the scientists abroad to the US for questioning. Should the government decide on prosecution, the most likely course would be a closed military-style trial.
Dealing with its controversial nuclear legacy is an extremely delicate and risky matter: Musharraf will be lucky to come out of this with both his domestic and international standing unscathed.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (left) presides a meeting of National Command Authority with Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali 31 January in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The founder of Pakistan's nuclear pogramme Dr Abdul-Qadeer Khan (right) was removed 31 January from his position as a government adviser amid an investigation into allegations of nuclear poliferation
