Pakistan's about-face
By
Salama A Salama
The sensational confession of Abdul-Qadeer Khan, father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, that he sold nuclear secrets to other states, including Iran, Libya, and North Korea, has eclipsed other developments on the subcontinent. But it was not the only dramatic news coming from this part of the world. A breakthrough in the Kashmir problem looks set to take place.
The Kashmir problem has simmered for half a century, beginning with the secession of Pakistan, and has been a constant thorn in relations between the two countries. The conflict has led to three wars and a hectic arms race that culminated in both countries' acquiring nuclear capabilities. The conflict brought India and Pakistan to the verge of nuclear war two years ago, when terrorists waged a suicide attack on the parliament building in central Delhi.
Following the 11 September attacks, and as part of the so-called war on terror, the US invaded Afghanistan and began hunting the remnants of Al-Qa'eda and the Taliban.
At a later stage the US waged war on Iraq on the pretext of eliminating weapons of mass destruction. All of which brought about a radical change in the long-running conflict on the subcontinent. US pressure on both India and Pakistan grew just as Asia became central to US global strategy and a potential source of terrorist threats.
Over the past few weeks Pakistan has been reviewing its foreign policy, which may explain the recent revelations concerning nuclear secrets. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has offered to observe a unilateral cease-fire on Kashmir's demarcation lines, and even promised to withdraw backing for the Kashmiri mujahidin engaging the Indian forces. As a result Pakistan and India are on course for a new round of negotiations aimed to bring peace to the war- torn region of Jammu and Kashmir.
Military analysts in India believe that Pakistan's about-face was the result of US pressure. Just as the US put immense pressure on General Musharraf to help it chase the remnants of the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda, and just as it asked him to curb the influence of extremist groups in Pakistan, the US has forced Musharraf to allow his scientists to talk about the nuclear assistance extended to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. So far Musharraf has complied, despite two attempts on his life. In another turn of the screw, the US has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with India, which could help the US track down terrorists in Afghanistan. Pakistan, meanwhile, is under investigation.
Clearly things will not stop with a group of Pakistani scientists being interrogated for selling Islamic bomb secrets, or at the latter expressing their contrition. There is a strong US-UK commitment to placing the Pakistani nuclear programmes under US monitoring. In this light, one can easily see why Musharraf is so eager to placate India, restore calm to Kashmir, and seek a peaceful settlement that may end Pakistan's debacle. The current developments on the Indian subcontinent are a harbinger of wide- reaching changes in central Asia. At stake is Pakistan' s very existence.
