Still inching closer
After three days of talks in Islamabad, India and Pakistan outline a roadmap for bilateral dialogue on all contentious issues, including Kashmir, writes Iffat Idris from Islamabad
Indian and Pakistani officials met for three days in Islamabad last week for what were essentially "talks about talks" -- in other words, talks on how to carry forward the dialogue process agreed by their two leaders during the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in January 2004. The "talks about talks" were successful, and ended with the two countries charting a roadmap for bilateral dialogue on all contentious issues.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had declared in January that mid-level officials would meet to discuss the mechanisms for such a dialogue. On Monday Indian External Affairs Ministry Joint Secretary Arun Singh duly started talks in Islamabad with Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry Director-General for South Asia Jalil Abbas Jilani. On day three Indian Foreign Secretary Shashank arrived for a one-day meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Riaz Khokhar.
According to the agreed schedule for bilateral talks, the first round will be in March-April between the director-general of the Pakistan Rangers and the inspector-general of the Indian Border Security Force. Expert-level talks on medium range nuclear missiles will be held in May, and on drug trafficking and smuggling in June. In May-June, following these technical discussions, the foreign secretaries will meet for talks on peace and security. The agenda will include nuclear missiles and the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. In July 2004 other secretaries will address the remaining major issues: Siachen, the Wullar Barrage in Kashmir, Sir Creek (between Pakistan's Sindh and India's Gujarat), economic cooperation, people-to-people contact, terrorism and drugs. In August 2004 the two Foreign Ministers -- Khurshid Kasuri and Yishwant Sinha -- will meet to review overall progress. Talking to media personnel after the announcement, Riaz Khokhar said: "We do have before us now a sort of basic roadmap for a Pakistan-India peace process ... We hope that this roadmap will eventually lead to settlement of all outstanding disputes between India and Pakistan."
India and Pakistan have tried to use diplomacy to resolve their differences before. In 1998 Prime Minister Vajpayee travelled to Lahore for talks with then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In 2001 President Pervez Musharraf went to Agra for talks with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Both those meetings failed to deliver. What makes the current round of bilateral interaction different, and what offers hope that this time the two sides will succeed, is that they started from the opposite direction. Instead of high-profile meetings between leaders conducted in the full glare of the media and surrounded by raised expectations, this time the initial meetings are between much lower-level technical officials. Success in these "preparing the ground" meetings will then lay the foundation for higher level talks between foreign ministers and eventually between heads of state.
There are other causes for optimism. Both countries realise that they have much to gain by peace. For India, a big incentive is its desire to become established as a regional and global power. It is worth noting that it is seeking to gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. As Pakistan's former Foreign Secretary Tanveer Ahmed Khan explained, "India has reached a point in its economic, political and social evolution where it legitimately feels it should have a higher place in the world. As long as it is stuck in the quagmire of Kashmir, it inhibits itself from chasing its larger, greater destiny."
For Pakistan, there is the realisation that Kashmir cannot be resolved by military means, or even through supporting the armed separatist movement within Indian-held Kashmir. Resolution can only come through negotiation. In the face of recent revelations of nuclear technology proliferation by its scientists, of suspicions that Osama Bin Laden is hiding in the northern tribal belt, and of a constant threat from religious extremists, Pakistan is also trying to convince the world that it is a moderate, tolerant country. Making peace with India is part of the wider drive to root out extremism within Pakistan.
There is also growing people-to-people contact between the two countries. Indian ghazal singer Jagjit Singh gave a historic concert in Islamabad last week. Pakistanis flocked to the event. Other Indian singers and entertainers are expected to take advantage of the bilateral thaw to perform in Pakistan. The most popular draw of all, however, remains cricket. In March 2004 the Indian cricket team will tour Pakistan and play five one-day matches and three test matches. Given the intense rivalry between the two countries, and the fact that India last toured Pakistan over a decade ago, it is easy to see why the March 2004 tour is arousing so much excitement. Organisers are expecting not only sell-out matches but the whole country (not to mention India) to come to a standstill as fans are glued to their TV screens.
The international community, constantly concerned about the possibility of war between the two nuclear-armed South Asian states, has welcomed the bilateral talks. "We are pleased to see that the parties came out with a roadmap for future discussions and we are pleased that they are committed to increasing their engagement," US State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher told journalists. The only potential glitch on the horizon is the Indian national elections due in April. The elections are one reason why high- level talks have been scheduled for August. Talks before then would be rendered less effective, both by electoral distractions and by uncertainty over the outcome. Having said that, everyone is expecting the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) government to regain power, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee to stay on as prime minister. Opinion polls to date show the party making gains because of its peace initiative with Pakistan.
