Close up: The Arab-American vote
By Salama A Salama
The next US presidential elections will most likely be a showdown between George W Bush, the incumbent Republican, and Senator John Kerry, the leading Democrat contender. For President Bush this will not be an easy ride considering widespread dismay with his performance in Iraq and the state of the economy. Bush's approval ratings have dropped, his credibility has suffered, while US relations with its European allies have deteriorated.
One thing is certain, that Arab Americans will have a hard time selecting a candidate. Still smarting from the aftermath of the September attacks, Arab-Americans are eager to play a more forceful role in US politics. They want their voice in formulating a host of policies on taxation, education, health and social insurance. They also want to protect themselves from the persecution and harassment now associated with the war on terror.
US newspapers say that several rich Arab businessmen have made contributions to the Bush campaign, vowing their support for the Republicans on the state and federal levels. This happened despite the disappointment they must have felt in 2000, when a majority of Arab-Americans voted for Bush only to discover, within a few weeks, that Bush would take action against them. Having trusted Bush's promises Arab-Americans were made to pay a heavy price in terms of their livelihood and interests as they were harassed by US authorities.
This is why the Arab-American vote appears to have split in two, with one group seeking to minimise the damage by joining, or contributing to, the Republican campaign while a second group is waiting to see what Kerry has to say about the issues most relevant to the Arabs -- the Palestinian issue and the occupation of Iraq -- before deciding how to cast its vote.
According to Jean Abi Nader, director of the Arab-American Institute, Arab American support for George Bush had declined from 45 per cent before the September attacks to less than 20 per cent in January 2004. Arab Americans, Abi Nader says, have become more eager to register as voters than any time in the past, knowing that they cannot defend their interests unless they are a part of the US political process.
Bush's policy has shifted to the point where it is no longer distinguishable from that of Israel. As a result US policy has lost much of its credibility among Arabs and Muslims, a trend that was reinforced with the war on Iraq. That war is now seen as unjustified, as both a means of fighting terror and of eradicating weapons of mass destruction. American-Arabs have, as a consequence, become more cautious in their electoral assessments.
Arab-Americans are not expected to give their votes to Kerry just because he opposes Bush on Iraq. And so far there is no evidence that Kerry is willing to reverse the US policy of supporting Sharon at the expense of the Palestinians. The Jewish lobby, skilled in campaign manoeuvring, can extract election promises from Kerry and traditionally the Democrats are close to that lobby. Kerry, as expected, has taken care to insist that America is Israel's most loyal ally and friend.
Arab-Americans are faced with difficult choices and will need to consider which ropes they can pull. Arab leaders visiting Washington in the next few months could do far worse than meet Senator Kerry and get to know more about him, his opinions and history. When he visits Washington President Mubarak may have the chance to do just that. No one knows who the next US president will be.
