In the air
The war against Iraq marked a watershed in the strategic environment in the Gulf. Its repercussions will determine security and defence arrangements in the region for years to come, writes Mohamed Darwish
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Two days after tthe fall of Baghdad, Iraqis gather under a looming mural of Saddam Hussein to watch British troops north of Basra
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The repercussions of "Gulf War III" have unleashed winds of political reform in the Gulf region, which are beginning to clash with traditional political systems largely shaped by tribal networks centred on ruling dynasties.
In general, most of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -- Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman -- are pressing ahead with these political reform processes in response to domestic and external forces that have made some level of reform inevitable. But, regardless of the causes that originally stimulated the reform processes, there is now a public and official consensus over the need to re-establish the principles of political legitimacy on the basis of a new social contract that will broaden public participation in political life, strengthen the institutions of civil society and modernise the apparatus of government so as to better equip it to cope with the demands of globalisation and overcoming dependency on oil resources.
The preceding points are the primary conclusions drawn by the recent roundtable organised by the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre in order to study the diverse consequences of the US-British invasion and occupation of Kuwait in April 2003. As Abdul-Aziz Bin Othman Bin Saqr, chairman of the centre's board of directors, said, "Over the past few years, GCC countries have taken important steps towards political reform, albeit such measures varied from one case to the next." He cautioned, however, that if these countries are to sustain the reform process, they must "work to curb those forces that seek to obstruct these efforts, especially in view of the fact that this reform aims to strengthen the legitimacy of ruling orders".
Bin Saqr also stressed the importance of regarding reform "from a comprehensive perspective, in which framework the political facets of the process integrate with the economic and social facets, without ignoring the bureaucratic aspects, of course". At the same time, he emphasised the need to "furnish the requirements and ingredients for strengthening civil society to enable its role to complement that of the government in facing the new challenges and requirements, especially in view of the fact that we have in the new middle class in GCC countries the social base for developing a modern civil society in these countries".
Turning to the situation in Iraq, Bin Saqr scoffed, "The US administration has so far failed to prove that Iraq possessed WMDs or that there was a connection between the former regime and Al-Qa'eda. As a result, the US official rhetoric has shifted its focus to other issues, such as making Iraq a base for the fight against terrorism and building a democratic system in that country which would serve as a model for other nations in the region. It is ironic that Washington has chosen what is probably the most difficult case in the region in which to build a democratic model."
In this regard, Mohamed Al-Mazrui, secretary-general of the UAE National Federal Council, issued a more sombre message. "The surrounding environment imposes on these regimes [in the Gulf] a new set of challenges which must be handled differently than previous challenges. We cannot isolate political developments in the region from developments within Gulf countries. The decline in the financial capacities of these countries in tandem with the increasing burdens sustained by their governments has rendered the continued marginalisation of the diverse sectors of the new middle class both untenable and hazardous."
On a more positive note, Al-Mazrui proclaimed 2003 "a step forward in the course of political reform in the region". However, he went on to caution that the possibility that the US would successfully present a democratic model in Iraq for others to emulate would have far-reaching repercussions that could generate instability. Above all, "the demands upon the region and the painful choices that it has so frequently striven to defer will become increasingly pressing, especially in light of the aggravation of economic difficulties and the increasingly rapid spread of globalisation made possible by the freedom in the media abroad." This reality, he stressed, "demands action to strengthen the legitimacy and perpetuity of the existing regimes, especially when we take into account that the demands for change that have been voiced over the preceding decades have offered no alternative to these ruling dynasties, which are considered an integral part of the social and political fabric of their societies."
Compounding the urgency of immediate action is the spectre of increased violence in these countries if they do not work to build the institutions capable of accommodating to the growing demand for change. "The educated classes in these countries are on the rise and they have hopes for a better future. However, closed doors will propel them in directions that will serve neither their interests nor the interests of their countries," said Al-Mazrui.
He summed up his appeal for reform with the motto: "Absorption and building the legitimacy of regimes through participation is the safeguard for the nation and the future." The appeal embraces legislative reform in response to the increasing demands for legislatures with effective powers and checks on the executive. Action in this domain could embrace everything from fundamental constitutional reforms to the passage of codes and regulations guaranteeing free and fair electoral processes. As such reforms take place, "political blocs and forums will, over time, become political parties with established platforms and ideological positions". The UAE speaker also believes that "absorption" should and will accommodate the Islamist movement. He said, "The Islamist trend, in its various shades, has been able to dominate legislative and municipal elections in all those countries that conducted the balloting process, in spite of predictions that it would not be able to do so because of the campaigns waged against it from abroad and attempts to clamp down on it at home. In Gulf countries, the religious character of their societies and the ability of this trend to capitalise on available places of congregation and assembly for the purposes of mobilisation and organisation have combined to enable it to increase its bases of strength."
Ahmed Abdul-Karim Seif, a researcher at the Gulf Research Centre, lauded the progress in the political reform process in GCC countries. Developments in this endeavour, he said, ranged from constitutional amendments to parliamentary and municipal elections. Moreover, not only were there "instances of unprecedented liberalisation" in the political process, but also there was remarkable concern for "expanding the scope of female participation in public life". Particularly fruitful, too, in his opinion, was the "political and religious dialogue that grounded itself in the principle of tolerance".
"Many internal and external factors contributed to making these developments possible, as they rendered the process of reform inevitable," he said. Tangible evidence of this could be found in the appeals voiced openly in parliament for the formation of political parties and the institution of political life. "In addition, the political arena in the Gulf witnessed more openness, broader participation by women and civil society, and greater intellectual and religious tolerance."
Seif also discussed at length the state of the political opposition in the Gulf. He noted, firstly, that opposition movements in this region fell into two categories, one emanating from within parliament or other legislative bodies, as was the case in Kuwait, and the other from outside governing institutions, as was the case in Saudi Arabia. "The opposition organisations and associations that arise in the framework of the first category generally tend to pursue peaceful and legitimate methods, whereas those that arise under the circumstances of the second category generally tend to endorse violence as their means to push through their agendas. The liberal opposition can be ranked under the first category.
The organisations emanating from the Arab nationalist trend vary in their methods from the espousal of violence to the espousal of peaceful means. As for the organisations and societies that range themselves under the banner of the Islamist trend, they generally tend towards violence and protest." In his opinion, given the preponderance of youth in the demographic composition of Gulf societies, there was a greater likelihood of demonstrations, which historically have been nearly non-existent in the Gulf, if their demands are not addressed. Protests, moreover, "could evolve into violence in the absence of the appropriate channels for representation and expression".
As a whole, Seif characterised the opposition in Gulf countries as "poorly organised and fragmented, but for the most part peaceful". He added, "The appeal to reform is the common denominator around which the diverse opposition organisations rally. The trend of the opposition is to pressure for the creation of political parties and other legitimate opposition forums, and for other political reforms, while retaining the ruling families, all of which are evidence of its preference for a gradual approach to political change."
To Sidqa Yayha Fadel, professor of political science at King Abdul-Aziz University in Saudi Arabia, "the password for change is participation, which ... has become a synonym for reform, which might emanate from the people, from their leaderships or from the influence of outside forces -- I refer here specifically to the US." Fadel considers the ideal manifestation to be an initiative for reform emanating from the people and then gaining the support of the leadership. "The reverse would open the window for the imposition of reform from outside, and if it comes from that direction it will be distorted." However, Fadel was optimistic that "the efforts to reform that we have seen in the countries of the GCC are serious beginnings on the proper path." This reflects the muted hope of the Gulf populations for substantial change in their political systems so that they may be better poised to contend with regional and international developments.
