Re-electing the enigmatic Tsar
Wasting time on elections is not Putin's style. He would rather carry on with his presidential routines, reports Shohdy Naguib from Moscow
In 1999 Vladimir Putin seemed like a bolt from the blue entering into the Russian political scene. An ailing Boris Yeltsin, the first popularly elected Russian president, needed a reliable lieutenant to guarantee him a safe exit at the end of a stormy decade of haphazard reforms. Everybody believed Putin's affirmations that he had no ambitions for the presidency but was simply a military man accustomed to obeying orders. However, when Vladimir Putin effortlessly wins the forthcoming presidential elections on 14 March, he will become perhaps the most powerful man in the Kremlin since Stalin.
Regardless of the immanency of upcoming presidential elections, there are almost no signs of their existence, whether in Moscow or elsewhere. The incumbent Putin faces six opponents who between them command a trifling ten per cent of the polls. After Putin refused to debate his rivals, four of them threatened they might drop out of the race. Putin is carrying out an effective "non-campaign", travelling across the country to publicly fulfil his routine presidential duties.
The most distinct episode of the ongoing campaign has been the bizarre affair with Ivan Rybkin's "mysterious maltreatment" in Ukraine. Apparently, Rybkin travelled to Kiev clandestinely in hopes of meeting Aslan Maskhadov, the Chechen president-in-exile. According to Rybkin, he fell into a trap set for him, and was kept at an undisclosed location in an altered state of awareness. After relating this tale to the press in London, Rybkin decided to stay in Britain and eventually dropped out of the race.
A senior Kremlin official pointed out that Putin's astronomical poll ratings of approximately 80 per cent means that "we don't have to campaign" in order to win handily on 14 March. Putin's lone official campaign appearance was a speech at Moscow State University, broadcast live on state television. It was an apparent violation of equal- time election rules but the Central Election Commission had no objections, arguing the president's speech was of public interest.
Putin's realpolitik caused a stir at home and abroad, attracting much attention to this disciplined politician and major global policy player. During the ongoing war with a rebellious Chechnya, Putin successfully installed a loyal Chechen president, Akhmed Kadyrov, in elections last October. After this step, he presented Kadyrov in Washington and at the Organisation of the Islamic Conference summit in Malaysia, thus effectively placing all the responsibility for the ongoing atrocities in the breakaway republic squarely on the newly elected president's shoulders.
By the end of October Putin was once again making headlines, with the arrest of Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky on the pretext of tax evasion. Khodorkovsky and other business tycoons associated with Yeltsin's "wild, wild East" era of initial capital accumulation are considered to be the major threat to Kremlin hegemony within Russia. Putin managed to assure worried Western investors that this attack will not be continued, but hardly anyone believes that Khodorkovsky will be the last victim amongst the super-rich New Russians. Many analysts read the message as, "Stay by me and we can all get what we want."
Indeed, many Moscow-based Western money managers credit Putin with restoring order to the Russian economy and standing up to the oligarchs who grew fabulously rich while the standard of living for most Russians went down the drain. William Browder, who runs the $1.25 billion Hermitage Fund in Moscow, said, "Putin has restored order and imposed rules so that six guys don't wind up with everything. Anyone who has a chip on the table here wants him to continue what he's been doing."
The parliamentary elections in December 2003 completed Putin's consolidation of power. The December elections were notorious for their lack of substantive debate, the hasty creation of "virtual parties", unfair use of state-controlled media by presidential favourites, large-scale intervention on the part of business tycoons in the funding of opposition parties, and the Kremlin shamelessly misusing its administrative resources. Putin restored one-party rule, albeit bare of any ideological burden, and produced an unshakable consensus as to who's going to rule Russia for the next four years with the possibility of amending the constitution to accommodate for a third consecutive presidential term.
Putin is as self-confident as he can be and is manifesting complete control over the situation. Sacking his government a mere two weeks before the date of the elections, Putin's unexpected choice of Mikhail Fradkov as new prime minister is just another dark horse. A man with little charisma or political ambition, he has spent the last few years working as a foreign trade official, then chief tax collector and, most recently, as Russia's envoy to the European Union. Little is known of his plans besides his intention to re- organise the Cabinet and substantially reduce the number of ministers in conformity with presidential wishes.
Although Fradkov's partially Jewish ancestry was not mentioned in media reports, some Jewish analysts promptly hailed the appointment of Fradkov as a brilliant political decision. According to the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, Russia's Chief Rabbi Berl Lazar, who has met Fradkov in the past, says that he has a positive attitude to Judaism and supports the development of the Jewish community in Russia. "This move was intended to silence those who accuse Putin of anti-Semitism for persecuting business tycoons of Jewish origin," said Roman Bronfman, a Knesset member. With the heightened violence since the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, about 50 thousand Israelis have immigrated to Russia.
A week before the election, Putin's opponents are debilitated by his overwhelming popularity and their lack of resources and access to the media. None of them has come forth with a consistent alternative to the president's political and economic line. The newly elected parliament is packed with "all the president's men", with the right-wing opposition totally swept out of it and the left weakened and divided. The only major concern left for Putin is that turnout may be low due to voter apathy in the face of a predetermined outcome.
