President Kerry?
Many issues will arise in this year's US presidential elections. John Kerry may harmonise American political currents, writes
Nabil Mikhail*
Perhaps John Forbes Kerry will be the 44th president of the United States. He would be the second Roman Catholic president after John F Kennedy. Like Kennedy, he is a sitting senator from Massachusetts and carries the same initials -- JFK. He would be the first president of Jewish descent. Kerry's grandfather was a Jewish immigrant from the Czech Republic who committed suicide in a Boston hotel long ago now. His ties to the Jewish community are evident considering that his brother Cameron converted to Judaism when he married a Jewish woman. Like Kennedy, both spent part of their careers in the Navy and were decorated for their heroism. Both were born into families of wealth and privilege. In fact, Kennedy and Kerry are both children of diplomats. Like Carter, Kerry has proven the importance of the Iowa caucases. And like Clinton, he could be the best hope for the Democrats after years in opposition.
But these presidential trivia should not hide the most important things about the 2004 presidential elections in the United States. This election will set the trend in American politics for years to come.
The Democratic primaries this year have succeeded in producing a generation of politicians who can address national problems and advocate strong solutions to many issues confronting America, especially the economy and social services and needs. If the Democrats lose in 2004, John Edwards of North Carolina -- a strong rival for Kerry in the nomination this year -- will run for President in 2008, along with Hillary Clinton, Al Gore and others like Evan Bayh, the young senator from Indiana, or the ethnically Serb Rod Blagojevich, governor of Illinois. Thus, the Democrats will console themselves that they have a good chance at winning the White House four years from now.
Most importantly, independents in American politics are favouring ideas advocated by the Democrats. This is clear because some states do not require party registration in order to vote in a primary. So independents, and even Republicans, can vote in the Democratic Party's primaries. Independents in America rallied behind Texan businessman Ross Perot when he campaigned for president in 1992. The independent vote tilted toward Clinton slightly when he was reelected in 1996. George W Bush had a slim majority over Al Gore in the 2000 presidential elections as a result of the independent vote. Which direction will the independent vote go in the year 2004? This will be the factor deciding who will occupy the White House.
In addition, the Democratic Party primaries and caucases have proven that Americans are becoming less ideological when it comes to voting for their president. Most of the voters who cast their ballots for Kerry do not know either about his political voting records or what he stands for in detail. They appreciate the electability factor; that he can beat Bush. While the liberal-conservative split is a deep divide in American politics, voters and citizens evaluate the office of the presidency not as an institution beholden to a certain political philosophy but rather as the embodiment of the American character, especially the most salient trait of being strong.
The current race for the presidency will bring a new vocabulary to American politics. Previous campaigns spoke about the world's need for America, This year the talk will be about America's need for the world. Unilateralism could be interpreted as a case of philosophical isolation. Moreover, the phenomenon of a jobless recovery has been so unique economists struggle to explain it. Terrorism and America's vulnerability to attacks from within is diametrically opposite to the Cold War rhetoric of protecting America from outside attacks.
The election of Kerry could be a reversal of a generation sequence. Kerry is not a baby boomer like Clinton or Bush Jr. He was born in December 1943, and the baby boomer generation is bracketed from post-1945 till the early 1960s. He is not a child of the Great Depression either. So he could present a middle- of-the-road image to many generations: one generation that suffered under a shaky peace in the 1930s and prospered after war in the 1940s and 1950s, and another generation that prospered in peace through the two decades after the end of World War II and suffered as a result of the war in Vietnam in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Thus a President Kerry should be America's final reconciliation with its agonising past in Vietnam. As a decorated Vietnam veteran he could be the symbol of America's adventurism to rescue the world from communism. But as a war protester he could be an agent redeeming America when its power is abused or is excessive. John Kerry should educate America about Vietnam even 30 years after the end of the war in Indo-China. He should make known that a new generation of Americans born in the middle of the 20th century were called to fulfil America's global engagements but realise at the beginning of a new century that engaging America's mission globally requires an order inside its society and a sophistication in dealing with others abroad.
The 2004 election is one of a few where Americans want to know what role the American government plays in their lives. Nixon and Ford advocated conservative ideas for the shape of the federal government ("The New Federalism") Carter spoke of cleaning up the government. Reagan crusaded against big government. Bush Sr described a kindler and gentler nation (not government). Clinton idealised public service and saw the government as the highest attainment of good in a state. And Bush Jr saw government as the liberals' creed to stifle creativity. But the American people want to know how the government can help them in the 21st century.
Lastly, in democracy the middle class wins. A liberal pluralist society gives the opportunity to the middle class, with its different strata, to choose the best policies among contending platforms. The ultimate question is who will have the support and confidence of America's middle class: Bush or Kerry?
* The writer teaches political science and history at the University of Maryland.
