Realpolitik 101
Western powers bestow blessings on reformers building a framework for political and economic change in Libya, writes
Gamal Nkrumah
A political and economic shake-up is underway in Libya. On Saturday, the General Popular Congress -- the country's combined top legislative and executive body -- came to a close in the calm seaside town of Sirte. The removal of Minister of Justice and Public Security Mohamed Al-Mosrati symbolically sounded the death knell for the old revolutionary Libya and opened up fresh vistas for the country's liberal newcomers.
Sirte -- hometown of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi -- served as an appropriate backdrop to the creation of a new Libya. The mastermind of the sweeping reforms hails from Gaddafi's own household. Seif Al-Islam Gaddafi, head of the influential Gaddafi Foundation, is the brain behind what is happening. The old leader is watchful, but has given his son a free hand to institute change.
With the revolutionaries out and the technocrats in, Libyan rapproachment with the West has been made easier. Al-Mosrati openly clashed with Seif Al-Islam in the past few months over matters of ideology and public policy. The moral justification for removing Al-Mosrati was to clearly separate the judiciary from the security apparatus and law enforcement. His formerly all-powerful ministry has now been split in two -- the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Public Security.
A new breed of technocrats has risen to the fore. For example, veteran oil expert Fathi Omar Bin Chetwane has been appointed energy minister -- the first energy minister the country has had in more than five years; ironic in a country utterly dependent on oil revenues for economic survival. The cabinet has expanded from 10 ministries to 13. Hotheaded Libyan politicos like Al-Mosrati want to rekindle the national tradition of rhetorical hostility to Western powers and imperialism. In the past, they have turned their noses up at opportunities of doing business with the West. Today, with Gaddafi's approval, they are being systematically sidelined.
In another unprecedented development, a United States senator was invited to speak to the General People's Congress in Sirte. "Americans will not forget the past," Senator Joseph Biden, an influential Delaware lawmaker on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told his Libyan hosts. "But we cannot allow the past to stop us from building a more peaceful world that can prevent such tragedies in the future," Biden said. He conceded that the best way to cement ties with Libya and other Arab countries was to listen to their viewpoints. Biden stressed that he was not in Libya to impose American ideas. "Nothing about democracy is incompatible with Islam," he added.
Libyan officials expressed concern about the lukewarm response of US authorities to Libya's overtures. But the Libyan authorities have persevered in their courting of the West, and especially Washington. Gaddafi's pledge to liberalise the country's political system has been cleverly formulated; within it there lies the hope that Washington will ease punitive sanctions and lift the long-standing trade embargo.
Perhaps the most radical move made by Libya was the shipment to the US of all its known centrifuge parts used to enrich uranium, along with the dismantlement of the country's former uranium conversion facility and nuclear weapons programme. All of Libya's long-range missiles, including five Scuds and all associated equipment, including launchers, were shipped to the US this week. The logical goal is to make Libya a stamping ground for foreign investors. But killing two birds with one stone, Gaddafi has also called the West's bluff, implicitly focussing attention on Israel as the only state in the Middle East and North Africa area that has, and develops, nuclear weapons. He also deftly and swiftly pulled the carpet from underneath Washington's present and ambitious -- some say reckless -- administration that may have had plans to hand for Libya.
Tellingly, in Sirte, Libyan officials stressed the country's commitment to solidarity with fellow African and Arab countries in spite of its reconciliation with the West. Ahmed Menesi, the governor of Libya's Central Bank, said that the North African country would not pressure poor African countries to repay their debts to Libya. The debtor nations are "too poor and cannot pay back", he told delegates at the Congress. Menesi said that Libya would not be able to recover its $3.4 billion debt in the near future.
Meanwhile, the Arab press has generally treated Libya's recent about-face scornfully. Many Arab newspapers commented on the government reshuffle, pointing out that it served to consolidate further the position of Prime Minister Abdul- Rahman Shalgam, who has led the way towards liberalisation. The General People's Congress in Sirte coincided with a visit to Libya by French Trade Minister Francois Loos. The Libyans are especially enthused by the eagerness of the Europeans to do business. Loos held talks with Libyan officials on a wide range of topics including oil, tourism, electricity, water and desalination projects. Economic and reconstruction projects were high on the agenda, Loos accompanied by no less than 70 representatives of French companies. France is Libya's third largest trading partner after Italy and Germany.
In a separate development, Seif Al-Islam Gaddafi flew to Paris to deliver an invitation for French President Jacques Chirac to visit Libya. The French president warmly received the Libyan leader's son. A visit by Chirac to Libya would strengthen the hand of the reformists in Libya and cement ties between the two nations. Seif Al-Islam pressed for a "progressive normalisation" of relations with France, on the one hand, and the European Union on the other.
Ultimately the pace and scope of reform will determine to what extent Libya and the West can actually come to a compromise. The new policies are hardly comparable to the principles that Gaddafi announced when he seized power in 1969, but they may not represent a fundamental break either. In choosing to break with tradition Gaddafi has also ensured Libya's integrity -- for now. The invasion and occupation of Iraq were undoubtedly a powerful demonstration of American confidence, the Libyan leader understanding that in order to advance his own interests he must adapt to -- and exploit -- new global realities. While economic infiltration can be fine-tuned, military invasion cannot. Embracing the discourse of political reform is an added insurance policy to that of giving up nuclear weapons. In Sirte it was made particularly clear that the Libyan leadership felt that it was time for the reformers to reassert themselves and to clip the wings of hard-liners.
Gaddafi is not finding it too difficult to secure political backing for the problematic tasks of economic deregulation and political liberalisation. The country is awash with oil revenues, and although sanctions have seriously undermined economic and social progress, the foreign direct investment in Libya is forecast to dramatically rise. But in order to secure the economic benefits of rapproachment with the West, it is vital for Libya to be able to ensure political stability.
It seems that for the first time in four decades the fences might be mended with Western powers. But while economic deregulation and privatisation are enthusiastically embraced in Libya today, comprehensive political liberalisation is still regarded with suspicion. Cabinet reshuffles are acceptable but a complete overhaul of the country's political system and the adoption of multi-party democracy are still out of the question. The Europeans are turning a blind eye to these contradictions and the Americans may well follow suit.
