Egyptian vision

President Mubarak's meetings next week with President Bush could not come at a more crucial time, writes Ibrahim Nafie

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President Mubarak is heading today to the United States. He is scheduled to meet US President George W Bush Monday at the latter's ranch in Texas. The venue is perhaps significant, for Bush receives only a selected few guests at the ranch. Mubarak is going to the US this time not only as president of a friendly country, but also as head of the largest Arab state. Talks are to focus on both bilateral and regional matters.

The visit comes at a crucial time, considering developments in the region, the challenges ahead, external initiatives for reform, and the initiatives with which the region has responded.

The visit, which lasts from 12 to 16 April, is a crucial one for Egyptian-US ties and the region. When President Mubarak visits the US, he is doing so on the grounds that our relations with the US are of strategic importance to both sides. I have said before that this relation represents a model for ties between the world's foremost power and a major regional player that is key for security and stability in the region.

Egyptian-US relations are conducted with mutual respect and sensitivity to each other's particularities. There are issues on which both agree, develop together and reinforce. There are also differences in opinion related to the specifics of each country and its particular interests. Differences in opinion have never impeded bilateral ties at any time. No one should think that the presence of differences on certain agenda issues means that there is a crisis brewing. Difference can be even beneficial; it helps both countries see things from a new angle.

Over the past few months, US policy has been facing major difficulties in the region. These difficulties coincide with the election year, where the US administration traditionally focusses on domestic affairs. Its concern is to strengthen its chances of re-election. As a result, the US administration, if not in a troubled mood, is nonetheless facing intense pressure. It wants only to hear things that support its position and accord with its vision. This goes for all the current issues, from Palestine to Iraq to the issue of reform in the Arab world.

Regarding Palestine, the US administration is currently, for many reasons linked to the election year, unable to stop Sharon and confront his adventures. It is true that the administration is forced sometimes to flash a "red light" aimed at preventing Sharon from committing certain crimes, such as the assassination or expulsion of President Arafat. But the US administration is incapable of, now and until the end of this year, taking a stand firm enough to end Sharon's exploits.

In Iraq, the US administration is trying to put things in order and achieve stability, a goal that is becoming harder to achieve by the day as confrontations with its forces spread and as divisions and differences between sects and communities worsen. The governments of countries participating in the occupation are facing difficulties. This was evident in Spain, where the government fell following calls for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Concerning reform in the Arab world, it is also clear that the initiative the US made under the slogan of the "Greater Middle East" is running into trouble. Major Arab countries have registered reservations about that initiative, which also failed to rally the support of European allies; a fact that was evident during Mubarak's recent tour of Italy, France and the UK. This much was evident in light of the initiative the EU prepared on the same issue; an initiative primarily based on dialogue with concerned Arab countries, taking into account the specifics of domestic considerations in Arab countries.

Because Egypt sees its ties with the United States as strategically beneficial to both sides, it is in the habit of presenting its views on various events in a manner reflecting its weight as a major regional power and as the largest Arab country. There are many things on which Cairo and Washington can agree; things that would help the US achieve what it hopes for on regional issues.

Starting with the Palestinian issue, I believe that it is possible to reach the desired calm in Palestinian lands and put an end to all acts of violence through agreement on the principles of future action. There are five essential points we have to agree upon before initiating any Egyptian-US effort to bring peace to Palestinians, putting the Palestinian-Israeli issue on a path for true settlement.

Firstly, Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip should be total and complete. The occupation forces should withdraw entirely, pull out the settlers, liquidate all settlements, and leave no pockets of Israeli presence in the Strip. At which case, it would be quite easy for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to administer the Strip in a suitable manner, with Egypt possibly taking care of things along its southern border.

Secondly, Israeli withdrawal should take place in coordination with the PA, so as to avoid a power vacuum and the type of chaos that could tempt certain people who do not wish to see calm achieved or a settlement reached to engage in disruptive action. This would make perfect sense. Though it is the party Israel insists on blaming for every attack carried out anywhere in Israel or the occupied territories, the PA is undoubtedly a partner in peace.

Thirdly, the withdrawal from Gaza should be carried out within the framework of the roadmap plan, not as a unilateral process. Bilateral action based on previous agreements strengthens those who support political settlement at the expense of those who opt for a military solution. Separating the withdrawal from the roadmap would harm political efforts and encourage extremists on both sides. On the Palestinian side, some people may portray the withdrawal as a flight similar to that seen in south Lebanon. In Israel, some people may use it as an excuse for a final orgy of murder and aggression.

Fourthly, if withdrawal from the Strip is undertaken as part of the roadmap this would pave the way for renewed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. In the course of such negotiations it would make sense for cease-fire agreements to be reached, a matter that would promote calm and stability.

Fifthly, the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip should not harm the final status talks. Egypt is taking a positive view of the withdrawal from Gaza because it sees it as part of a negotiating process that should end up in the creation of an independent Palestinian state, an outcome pledged by President Bush and written into the roadmap.

If the US were to agree with the Egyptian vision and proceed to sponsor Palestinian- Israeli negotiations, Egypt would be perfectly willing to help the concerned parties in every possible way to reach a peaceful settlement. Egypt can renew its efforts of brokering the various Palestinian factions. It will urge these factions to focus on supporting political settlement efforts, to give negotiations a chance. It is time both sides see the futility of military solutions. Egypt can provide substantial assistance to the PA so that the latter has the personnel and capacity to maintain order.

Concerning the Iraqi dossier, the starting point of any effort is to recognise the need to transfer power to the Iraqi people and have a clear timetable on that matter. It is possible for the responsibility for administering Iraq to be transferred during an interim period to the United Nations. The Arab League could perhaps assist the UN in a number of ways. What matters is that Washington sees the need to end occupation and transfer sovereignty to Iraqis.

As for reform in the Arab world, it is an issue that has gained immense interest in Egypt and a number of key Arab states. Arab states have a clear vision for reform, one stated at the reform conference held at the Bibliotheca Alexandrina, the conclusions of which have been commended by the US administration. There is no dispute on reform as a principle, but on its limits, dimensions and pace, as well as on the need to take the particularities of Arab societies into account. The United States should recognise Arab concerns and the fact that reform has to come through inner dialogue. A vision of reform as something that could be "dictated" could only backfire. The US administration should accept this point of view as being consistent with the very principle of democracy it aims to underline. Washington should also communicate with its European allies on the matter of reform, as this would help it form a more realistic approach to the issue at hand.

Reform brings us to the matter of the upcoming Arab summit, a summit that is greatly needed, regardless of where it is held and who is to preside over it. This summit needs to come out with an Arab consensus on reform, with a declaration. Such a declaration is now eagerly anticipated by leading international powers such as France, Germany and Russia. It is also expected to be a topic of discussion at the G8 summit in June.

Mubarak's visit to the United States is of great consequence to bilateral relations and regional developments. Its success will mean much for many in this region and beyond.