Ominous implications

Recent escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border raises the question of whether Lebanon will again be dragged into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Christian Henderson reports

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On 22 March Hizbullah shelled Israeli army positions in the occupied Shebaa Farms in response to the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin earlier the same day. Small in size and resulting in no casualties, the operation was considered by analysts to constitute a gesture of solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians rather than an act intended to seriously challenge Israel's military presence in the uninhabited area located by Mount Hermon.

On the following day, two Palestinians from the Damascus- based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command (PFLP-GC) were killed by an Israeli military helicopter on the southern Lebanese border as they were trying to fire Katyusha rockets into Israel. Unlike Hizbullah's operation in the Shebaa Farms, the attempted PFLP-GC attack was not sanctioned by the Lebanese government, and a surviving militant was later arrested by Lebanese security forces.

The fallout from these incidents has so far been limited. Israel responded to Hizbullah's operation with an air raid and an artillery bombardment of suspected Hizbullah positions close to the Shebaa Farms. Still, the violence serves as a reminder of the potential for tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border to flare up, and the ease with which Lebanon could be dragged into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In a recent interview with the Israeli daily Ma'ariv, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made his strongest threat yet against Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Asked whether Palestinian President Yasser Arafat or Nasrallah could be targets for assassination he said: "I wouldn't suggest either of them feels immune ... Anyone who kills a Jew or harms an Israeli citizen or sends people to kill Jews is a marked man. Period."

Violence on the border with Israel has ominous implications for many Lebanese. "Lebanon should not fall into this trap. It should not give Israel an excuse to carry out an offensive," said Pierre Gemayel MP, a member of the Christian opposition and grandson of Pierre Gemayel, the founder of the right- wing Phalange Party. Gemayel was quoted by the local media as saying the Palestinians were only able to conduct such an operation due to the lack of security on the border, arguing that Lebanon should not open a front with Israel. "If things are not controlled, Lebanon might once again pay a very high price," he said, adding that he believed the issue of the Shebaa Farms should be resolved diplomatically.

While there are calls for the deployment of Lebanese troops on the border to stabilise the area, some argue that such a deployment would result in far greater tension. Such a step would cast the blame for any border incidents directly on the Lebanese state, and the conflict could turn into one between two states rather than between one state and a militia.