Where to now, George?

Long-highlighted by critics, the parochialism of America's vision for Iraq is unravelling on the ground. The US seems hapless and without a plan. It had better find one, writes Ahmed Abdel-Halim*

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Following the recent clashes between US forces and followers of Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, Iraq's civil administrator declared Al-Sadr an outlaw. The latter responded mockingly. "What law is Bremer talking about? Is it the US law or the Shari'a? If it's US law, I am proud to breach it. If it's Shari'a, I don't think I am an outlaw." A simple answer, but one with profound significance, for it lays down a new basis for resistance in Iraq. US law is something relevant to the US, obviously not to Iraq. What matters to the Iraqis is to get the foreign occupiers out of their country; the way Shari'a would have it. In the latter sense, Iraqi resistance is legitimate.

Once the occupation began, resistance was but a matter of time, for no nation wants to live under foreign occupation. Iraqi resistance has since changed in form and intensity. Hardly a day has gone by without victims falling on both sides, until the recent escalation involving Al-Sadr supporters took the death toll through the ceiling. The showdown started suddenly, prompted by a decision to close down the newspaper Al-Hawza, published by Al-Sadr. A few days later, Al-Sadr's office manager was arrested, which left the cleric in no doubt about Bremer's resolve to silence Shia challengers. Having come to Iraq allegedly to spread freedom and encourage free expression, it was ironic to see the Americans resort to closing newspapers.

Why did the US take such a step, even as it intends to hand over power on 30 June? Wouldn't it have been wiser not to rock the boat? The move fuelled doubts about US intentions in Iraq. A year after the occupation commenced, the gap is widening between two standpoints: that of a democratic Iraq according to US rhetoric, and that of the Iraqi resistance. For all his purported "vision" on Iraq, President Bush has succeeded only in one objective, that of bringing down Saddam. Iraq as a future "model of democracy" is still a hopeless joke. And Iraqi resistance is becoming more lethal and determined. Meanwhile, the occupiers seem interested in keeping the Iraqis disunited -- the old divide and rule premise of colonialism.

The escalation in violence across various parts of Iraq has revived the climate of war. The "Free Iraq" the US propagates has no room, apparently, for the likes of Muqtada Al-Sadr; in a word, for those who oppose occupation and demand national freedom. Al- Sadr may be extreme in his ways but he is not the only Iraqi opposing the US occupation of Iraq. Shia leader Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, for example, rejects the occupation but does not favour confrontation and bloodshed. He prefers to keep a cool eye on events, offering his opinion on matters such as power transfer without actively becoming engaged in political work, or associated with the Americans. The pragmatists of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) sit on the Interim Governing Council (IGC) under Bremer's supervision. Occasionally, however, they become critical of the way Americans are doing things, political and militarily.

Al-Sadr, meanwhile, refuses to cooperate with the Americans in any shape or form. The young cleric calls for the creation of a constitutional government selected by the Iraqi people; one with no link whatsoever to the US-declared objectives for Iraq. Al-Sadr has a militia, Al-Mahdi army, to give force to voice. Will Al-Sadr's resistance pave the way for a US withdrawal from Iraq? Will it succeed in fuelling a wide- scale revolution in the country? No one yet knows. But the Americans are worried. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has just announced that more US troops will head to Iraq, and troops scheduled to return home will have to stay longer. The troubles facing the US army are not likely to end anytime soon.

The Al-Mahdi army, formed in July 2003 with a few thousand men under arms, is more than symbolic. Al-Sadr is becoming popular, with young Shia and some clerics, because of his political stand and also because of the legacy of his father, the late cleric Mohamed Sadeq Al-Sadr. Al-Mahdi army was the first militia formed in Iraq after the invasion. The other is the Badr Brigade of the SCIRI, with 10,000 to 15,000 combatants. Al-Sadr hopes to enlarge his militia and rally other Shia groups, perhaps even Sunnis, in the fight against occupation.

A meeting was held in Baghdad among representatives of the six main political forces at the IGC. The participants issued a three-point initiative to end the confrontation between the US forces and Al-Sadr followers. The initiative calls on Al-Sadr to: first, halt acts of violence against the Americans; second, stop obstructing the investigation in the assassination of Abdel-Maguid Al-Khoui; and third, refrain from engaging in illegal political action. Al-Sadr is yet to react to the initiative.

What will happen next in Iraq? One possibility is that the Americans would continue to use military force to achieve their goals, a matter likely to increase the ferocity of resistance. A second possibility -- one the Americans are working on -- is that the UN would intervene in Iraq, conferring legitimacy on the occupation, with a power transfer performed on time. A third possibility is that disturbances continue and the power transfer be postponed. A fourth, though unlikely, possibility, is that US forces pull out.

The Americans have succeeded in bringing down Saddam and dismantling Ba'athist institutions, but they have entangled themselves in chaos and hatred on a scale they hadn't foreseen. They have definitely picked the wrong time for a showdown with Iraq's domestic forces. In a country that has lost its state structure so suddenly, it is neither hard to find weapons nor reason to use them. So how far will the Americans go to impose their version of history on Iraq? And will the violence spread from Iraq to other parts of the region and the world? We won't have to wait long to find out. The next few months alone will provide answers to these questions.

* The writer is a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.