Danger zone

For Egypt, Bush's support to Sharon over Israel's unilateral disengagement plan signals the onset of a perilous new era in Middle Eastern politics. Dina Ezzat reports on Cairo's reaction and, below, follows yet another episode of efforts to hold the Arab summit

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In a year or so, Egypt could be faced with a new Palestinian entity on its eastern borders in the densely populated and economically impoverished Gaza Strip. This entity is set to result from a possible unilateral Israeli disengagement from Gaza in 2005, according to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan that was given the United States' blessing late last week. It might even be considered a Palestinian state -- at least for a few years.

"This is one of the main reasons why Egypt is so angered by the recent exchange of letters between the Israeli prime minister and the US president in support of this unilateral disengagement away from any regional consultations or Palestinian preparations," a high-level Egyptian source told Al-Ahram Weekly. He added: "But this is also one of the main reasons why it was very important for President Hosni Mubarak to be in Washington on that week to talk directly to the Americans about the implications of their new policy."

On 14 April in Washington, US President George W Bush declared Sharon's planned 2005 unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip as a "bold, courageous and historic" move. In a letter of assurances delivered from Bush to Sharon on that very day, the US expressed appreciation of the plan and offered support for its implementation. And in a press conference on the same day, the US president called on the Palestinians to rise up to the challenge and seize the opportunity offered by the plan. Bush also called on the Palestinians to abandon demands for the right of return for Palestinian refugees and the legitimisation of the 1949 armistice borders.

On the final days of his visit to the US, Mubarak expressed concern and dismay over the policy shift in Washington, which had so far been reluctant to offer support to unilateral moves and had accepted that issues related to the borders of the would-be Palestinian state and the settlement of the refugee issue should be dealt with in final status talks conducted directly between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Mubarak underlined that issues relating to final status talks "should not be pre-empted by any unilateral moves and that the rules of international law and agreed on working plans, including the roadmap, should be respected by all".

He added: "I have to warn that any violations of these [rules and plans] could bring about more violence and this is what we should all work to avoid." In press statements he made in the US, Germany and France, Mubarak emphasised the need to take Palestinians on board while making any future arrangements. In the talks, sources say, he stressed that the US exclusion of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat was no good reason to keep the Palestinians out of future talks.

Egypt's angry-but-restrained official reaction to the outcome of the Bush-Sharon summit and Saturday's Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Abdel-Aziz Al-Rantissi stems from serious concerns about the implications of US and Israeli policies on the region and Egypt in particular since the combination of political coercion and military aggression is bound to further legitimise extremism in the Palestinian territories. This aggravated extremism, Egypt believes, is bound to spill over to its own territory and to other neighbouring countries as well.

Egyptian officials say that Cairo was not completely in the dark about the US-Israeli political process that led to last week's declarations and exchange of letters. "This was never top-secret. US Secretary of State Colin Powell did brief UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and some foreign ministers on the guidelines of the letters. Some highlights of the plan were also offered to Egypt either directly or indirectly," a New-York based Egyptian diplomat told the Weekly. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source stressed that what was really shocking to Egypt was the language used in the letters and its implications.

According to this source, neither Cairo nor the Palestinians, nor anybody else in the region for that matter, expected that Palestinian refugees were going to be granted the legal and legitimate right of return to their original land or that the Palestinian Authority (PA) would get back all of the land annexed by Israel in 1967.

Actually, during every political process that attempted to outline a settlement for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the past few years -- including the Camp David talks between Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and former US President Bill Clinton, and the Taba talks -- there was always an understanding that only a symbolic number of Palestinians would be allowed to return to their original towns, now in Israel, and that the PA will have to give up some of the land annexed in 1967. "So there was also a sense of realism but there was also a sense of fairness," the source said. He added: "Today, this sense of fairness is being scrapped by the US ... And contrary to the spirit and text of the Oslo peace process, decisions are being taken without having the Palestinians on board."

This approach is worrying Egypt. "By assassinating two key leaders of Hamas [spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and now Rantissi] in less than a month, Israel is in fact begging for an increase in extremism in Gaza. [Israel] is going to continue igniting terrorism and then walk out and leave it to Egypt to worry about it," an Egyptian official said with obvious anger. "This is a direct assault on Egypt," he added.

During his 10-day Western tour in which he visited Germany, France and the US, Mubarak discussed ways of dealing with the consequences of the new situation in the Middle East.

"There are so many practical issues that are being discussed at the highest level in relation to offering Palestinians in Gaza a window of economic opportunity, strengthening the PA that is being systematically undermined by the Sharon government, and securing the Egyptian borders with Gaza from any possible infiltrations by angry and suppressed Palestinians," the source added.

In the US, there were talks about finding ways to work around the restrictions imposed on the volume and space of Egyptian military presence on the borders with Gaza in accordance with the rules of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. "Yes, Egypt might need to consider including a few amendments to those terms but this may not be necessary because there is another option" related to a new joint security arrangement. In Washington, Egypt issued clear warnings against giving the Israeli government the green light to continue its policy of targeted killings, curfews and the economic strangulation of Palestinians under occupation.

In Hanover and Paris during his talks with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder and French President Jacques Chirac, Mubarak stressed the need for an immediate international -- particularly European -- effort to offer some wisdom to Sharon and extend an economic helping hand to the Palestinians.

Egypt believes that if Sharon manages to sell his disengagement plan then it might well be looking at the countdown to the "Gaza state". Egyptian diplomats say that Egypt can criticise US policy but, pragmatically speaking, that is not going to change anything. What Cairo needs to do urgently is to work with the US and with the rest of the international community on dealing with the consequences of this potential disengagement and the new demands that are being put to the Palestinians. "This was the objective of President Mubarak's tour," an Egyptian Foreign Ministry source said.

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