Who's ruling?

James Brandon in Baghdad gauges reactions to wranglings over the new Iraqi government

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When Ali Al-Naimi was asked about his new prime minister, he rolled his eyes in disbelief. "Iyad Allawi? Tell me, who is this Iyad Allawi, because I have never heard of him," he roars, smacking the steering wheel of his taxi while stuck in one of Baghdad's interminable traffic jams. Al-Naimi grins when asked whom he would prefer as prime minister after the transfer of sovereignty on 30 June. "Saddam Hussein," he replies slowly and deliberately. "Saddam was a man who could control Iraq. Saddam would deal with this plague of thieves, and there would be none of this chaos," he says, waving his hands at the hopelessly gridlocked rows of cars.

Across Iraq more and more people are becoming disillusioned with the ongoing political process even as the US, the UN and the Interim Governing Council (IGC) edge towards agreement over a range of issues concerning the interim government that will assume limited power beginning 1 July. The selection of Iyad Allawi -- a Shia and former CIA and MI6 informer -- by his fellow IGC members, with the backing of the US administration, seems unlikely to inspire the loyalty of Iraqis who feel abandoned by their own politicians. Allawi's appointment is also a blow to UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. Brahimi had hoped to sideline the IGC and appoint instead a government of capable, experienced technocrats unsullied by contact with the US occupation in an attempt to create a viable, popular government to rule Iraq until elections can be held early in 2005.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that in the absence of elections Iraqis would prefer either a government composed of clerics who have the moral authority to run the country, or technocrats who could get the job done. The US and the IGC, however, have championed Iyad Allawi -- a British-trained neurosurgeon who provided the British government with the necessary intelligence to make the case for the invasion of Iraq. "Allawi is no different from Chalabi," said a student of political science at the University of Baghdad, who wished to remain anonymous. "This is a sign that the Americans are not interested in Iraq becoming a truly representative democracy. Allawi has no supporters, no idea of what is going on in Iraq, and he does not reflect the mood of the people."

One of Allawi's first actions has been to indicate that he would recall an additional four divisions of the old Iraqi army to increase security. This move was widely seen as attempt to win over the many Sunni military men who are still disgruntled by the abrupt dissolution of the old army.

Increasing the size of the army will also afford Allawi a measure of independence from the American military. Another decision likely to generate little dissent is the appointment of Thamer Al-Ghadban to the influential post of oil minister. Al-Ghadban, who briefly served as oil minister following the invasion, will replace Ibrahim Bahr Al- Uloum, a political appointee whose management of the world's fourth largest oil reserves has been marked by arrogance, incompetence and mismanagement.

The IGC, together with Brahimi, will also select 26 cabinet members over the coming weeks in a process sure to provoke intense debate and whose secrecy will inevitably fuel suspicions regarding American motives in Iraq. But whatever the exact composition of the new government, its success will depend on delivering the people of Iraq the jobs, security and political process they crave. "The new government will be judged by what it does, not by what it says," warns Dathar Khashab, manager of one of Iraqi's largest oil refineries at Daura on the edge of Baghdad, which supplies Iraq with a third of its daily petrol requirements. Khashab should know. Daura refinery has been put out of action by constant sabotage of pipelines delivering crude oil for processing. The subsequent petrol shortages across the capital are adding to the ever-growing frustration with the US-led occupation and US-appointed IGC.

"The people who are blowing up the pipelines are very smart," says Khashab. "They realise that these actions will only hurt the Iraqi people, but they also know that the Americans and the government will get the blame for not being able to provide basic services. If the new government cannot stop the attacks, then soon the new government will be as unpopular as the old one."