Utter confusion!

By Salama A Salama

---

What is to happen if all talk of change and reform in Egypt turns out to be premature, or at least short of people's expectations? What is to happen were people to discover that the timing and scope of change -- of faces and policy -- is not governed by rational political and economic thinking? Some party officials and public figures believe they are entitled to have their say in the matter of reform. Most likely, they will be disappointed.

The country's political and constitutional institutions, the bodies that are supposed to act as a clearinghouse for decision- making, the agencies that are supposed to ensure that the right decision is made at the right time, are not exactly working. This goes as well for most Arab countries where the leadership, or the highest political echelon, has total say over the timing and scope of their decisions. This situation -- despite the existence of democratic symptoms and semi- democratic procedures -- often involves a totalitarian touch, leads to a stagnation of democratic life and begets a climate of confusion and paralysis.

Over the past few days, some officials saw their political stock rise ahead of the expected reshuffle, while others saw theirs fall. A climate of stagnation and depression took hold on various levels, from public work to government service to the political party scene. Meanwhile, the opposition prepared to criticise the upcoming change, even before discerning its shape. The only thing that did not change was the economic situation, perhaps because it is beyond hope. The dollar is dropping but prices keep going up. The market is sluggish, foreign investment is on hold and corruption cases are being endlessly investigated.

The sense of uncertainty is such that the public was shocked when the news was released that President Mubarak was going to Germany for a normal medical procedure, for an operation that is neither risky for his health nor his leadership abilities. Still, the leadership re-assured us that everything is fine and that the country is on course for change.

The extent of confusion, of the loss of direction, of the lack of transparency, is such that a story by Newsweek on Egypt, suggestively accompanied by a picture of Gamal Mubarak on the cover, was able to fuel irrational speculation concerning a cabinet reshuffle, a change of governors and the possible appointment of a vice president. We have been reduced to divination and horoscopes whereas what we need is good and rational governance.

Some wondered, taking their cue from Newsweek, why Egypt is the first candidate for democratic reform in the region, not Iraq? Would America, some opposition figures asked, intervene to accelerate change and influence decision-making in Egypt? This is all nonsense. It is a sign of insecurity, of a confidence crisis, of the doubt that reform would be introduced in an efficient, sufficient, timely and determined manner.

The National Democratic Party (NDP) has failed to show serious commitment to the reform plans it had promised, modest as these are: the Committee of Policies, the economic transformation policy, the dialogue with parties. Not to be outdone, the opposition has proved equally uncertain about its responsibility for reform.

The NDP is holding meetings on "a citizenry document". And yet, the document is still a mystery -- no one knows its details, the timetable to implement it, nor the role of other political forces in endorsing it. This is a situation in which rumours become rife and confusion spreads, which cannot be helpful for economic and political stability.