Just guessing

Again, speculation overtook solid news in the Egyptian press this week, writes Aziza Sami

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Amr Okasha in Egypt's Al-Wafd on the upcoming cabinet shake-up: "Just between you and me, change is necessary."; This is what the US transfer of power in Iraq looks like in Asharq Al-Awsat. By Amgad Rasmi

On Sunday the independent daily Nahdet Masr, whose motto is "liberalism is our path to the future", came out with the headline, "Egyptians are hoping for a new government that does not lie or embellish itself." Scouting the views of former prominent officials, Nahdet Masr presented one opinion as demanding "political reform first and above all else", this from Yehia El-Gamal, a former minister of state for cabinet affairs. Lawyer and former Minister of Information Kamal Abul-Magd stressed that "candour and a strategic outlook" are needed while former Minister of Housing Hasaballah El- Kafrawi was quoted as saying, "The ideal solution for all current crises is to have a new, serious prime minister who fears God in his work and is able to select his ministers based on their devotion to their work, piety, etc." El-Kafrawi suggested some structural changes in the cabinet including, among other things, "cancelling the Ministry of Supply".

The newly issued Nahdet Masr, which now comes out as a daily, presents itself as "secular, liberal, opting for pluralism, and non- sensationalism". Its editorial on Sunday stated, "Liberalism, as we understand it, does not mean surrendering the country's interests or blindly accepting the ideas and interests of others, in service of those who lead the world (America) or giving up our citizen's rights." Nahdet Masr, which is purported to represent the "reformist" group led by the president's son and head of the NDP's Policies' Committee Gamal Mubarak, was conspicuously silent on whether the younger Mubarak might soon accede to yet higher political positions.

This was in marked contrast to the other independent and opposition publications which came out that day.

The independent weekly Sawt Al-Umma on Sunday announced that the new (and to date only) "change" in the cabinet (the ousting of veteran Information Minister Safwat El-Sherif, something which no-one could have envisaged even the day before) meant "the end of the government's old fogies!" The newspaper also predicted that "Gamal Mubarak's group will accede to the positions of the old guard," though whether the paper was happy with such a prospect was unclear. In his lengthy two-page article, "The secrets of President Mubarak's treatment in Munich" Sawt Al-Umma' s editor Adel Hammouda wrote, "There is no doubt that El-Sherif's ousting from the NDP's General Secretariat will be a triumph for the younger group in the NDP. Now, with the exiting of El-Sherif from the executive branch, it will be easy to get rid of any other executive figure, however strong he may be, and whatever the length of time he (or she) has been in office."

On Sunday as well, the opposition weekly Al- Arabi, issued by the Nasserist Party, as usual gave voice to what has, for the newspaper, been an ongoing concern. "The sudden return of Gamal Mubarak from Munich", and fears of the "inheritance scenario". On this topic, the newspaper's editor Abdallah El-Sinnawi wrote, "The sudden return of Gamal Mubarak from Munich, where his father is receiving treatment, might be normal because of prior commitments which he had to dispense with. But again, it might signal, given the current circumstances, other possibilities, namely a return of the "inheritance scenario" since there are strong indications that the position of vice president is reserved for Gamal Mubarak.

"On the other hand," El-Sinnawi continued, "there is nothing to say that this might happen. For instance, there were expectations, which proved wrong, that President Mubarak might appoint a vice president before his departure to Munich or announce the new cabinet (none of which happened). And so, speculation, fear and even unknown risks are what characterise the general situation in Egypt now."

El-Sinnawi agreed with Hammouda's prognosis that "after the most unexpected ousting of Safwat El-Sherif, no one of the old guard is now considered 'precious or dear to the regime'."

So there has been change by changing El- Sherif. But on Saturday, the banners of the national weekly Akhbar Al-Yom promised readers that "Mubarak has not, and will not, change". A photograph of the president making a phone call from his hospital bed in Munich accompanied the headline on the front page. The newspaper's editor Ibrahim Se'da, expressed his happiness and surprise at seeing the president "so busy while in hospital, making phone calls with heads of state and conducting state business as usual". Se'da, who failed to win another term in the Shura Council, stressed, "I do not find answers to my questions but I have convinced myself that President Mubarak is the same person we have known ever since he became vice president and then president: devoted to his work and his sole aim the good and happiness of the Egyptian people who have surrounded him, in the many past years, with their love, enthusiasm and appreciation. Therefore, repayment by President Mubarak to the people should be, from his point of view, more devotion and sacrifice for the glory of Egypt and the service of its people, even if this is at the expense of his health and comfort. This is President Mubarak as we knew him and as he will always remain whether we like it or not."

Akhbar Al-Yom also heralded the news that "Mubarak refers the draft competition and anti- dumping law to parliament". The newspaper wrote that the long-delayed draft law had been referred to the People's Assembly and Shura Council, the source for this news being Presidential Chief of Staff Zakariya Azmi , in an interview given to Egyptian state television. However, on Sunday, the opposition daily Al-Wafd issued by the Wafd Party, reported in its banner, "Postponement of the competition and anti-dumping law". Writing that the parliament Speaker Fathi Sorour has postponed putting the draft law before the assembly's economic committee, Al-Wafd added, "Sources predict that the law will be postponed until the upcoming session."

Speaking of procrastination, Youssef Sidhom, the editor of the weekly newspaper Watani, on Sunday wrote of "a 19-year-old project to grow forests using sewer water" which was repeatedly shelved all these years only to be referred to again by Prime Minister Ebeid on 6 June. Sidhom has been devoting several articles to "problems upon which no action has been taken", the lengthy list of grievances giving him fodder, apparently, for several more issues of Watani to come.