It's not over yet

Continued attacks by the occupation forces will only force Palestinians to respond in kind. Emad Gad looks at two Israeli writers who can't think of a more logical reaction

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Sunday's bombing of an Israeli military outpost by the Ezzuddin Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, set in motion a new round of debate within Israeli society over the ability of regular military forces to confront armed Palestinian resistance, with some commentators questioning the usefulness of Israeli operations against Palestinian organisations and activists.

The method of the operation -- effected through a tunnel dug under an Israeli military base -- raised even bigger questions about the ability of Palestinian factions to invent new ways of fighting Israeli occupation forces. Indeed, this operation may silence Israeli voices that have placed responsibility for acts of this kind on others. Recently there has been much talk about tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip used to smuggle weapons. This discussion starts with the idea of blaming others without stopping to examine the veracity of these accusations or looking at the reasons and motives behind the phenomenon. But this time, a tunnel was dug in an area under the complete control of Israeli occupation forces and then used for an operation against these very same forces.

It is notable that commentators have largely focussed on a discussion of how Palestinian resistance fighters managed to dig the tunnel and execute the mission. As a result, recommendations were primarily concerned with offering methods and techniques to forestall further actions of this kind. It is also notable that even before the most recent operation, some Israeli writers warned of the effects of relying wholly on military force to achieve security. They point out that the Palestinian Intifada is not yet dead and that military operations by occupation forces will push Palestinians to look for more painful responses. One such writer is Uri Avnery, journalist and leader of the leftist Gush Shalom which has been critical of the wall of separation. Avnery wrote that Israel's wall is less humanitarian than even the Berlin Wall, and its objective is "gradual ethnic cleansing". As a result of the wall, Avnery said, thousands of Palestinians will commit suicide operations.

"Is this the peace of which Sharon dreams?" Avnery wrote. "Is this the Palestinian state that Bush promised? Is this part of the democratic Greater Middle East? The objective, of course, is to make the lives of Palestinians so miserable they will leave the country. It is gradual ethnic cleansing.

"But it will of course lead to limitless bloodshed. No people in the world would accept such a situation. Death (or martyrdom) is better than this life for thousands and thousands of Palestinians. This giant construction will inevitably fall in the future, just like the disreputable, but more humanitarian, Berlin Wall fell. As is always the case, after much suffering, the human spirit will prevail, but only after both sides pay the price."

It was clear to many Israeli writers, even before the most recent operation, that the actions of the Israeli army will not bring security or calm. One of the more prominent of these was Alex Fishman, writing on Yediot Aharonot 's website on 23 June in an article entitled, "The Intifada Is Not Over Yet." "The Israeli army is succeeding in cutting the grass faster than it can grow," he wrote. "This is the true military significance of the achievements of the Central Command leadership which, over the last six months, has reduced operations inside the Green Line that originates in the West Bank by almost 80 per cent.

"But anyone who imagines that he is safe is fooling himself: a new type of grass will evolve that grows faster than the lawnmower can move, no matter how sharp and professional it may be. The Intifada is not over yet. The real significance of this accomplishment is that the army and Shin Bet are giving the political leadership more time to do something.

"In the short term, this military success boosts morale, contributes to an improvement in the economy, alleviates conditions for the Palestinian civilians, and might allow for real political negotiations. But in the medium and long term, this accomplishment can be dangerous. Past experience has taught us that military achievements can also induce complacency, for they create a sense that the army can win, and so we need not do anything else.

"These figures indicate a tangible decline in the military capabilities of organisations in the West Bank. We see broken leaderships and cells working in clandestine, small groups with reduced military capabilities. The organisations that cause the most alarm are those linked to and activated by Hizbullah.

"The ability of the Central Command to get at the infrastructure of operations and their leaders is reflected in the arrest of almost 2,000 activists over only the last six months, compared to a mere 700 arrests all of last year. This is the fruit of several steps taken by the Central Command and the Shin Bet -- not only the completion of sections of the wall, but the evolving ability of the army and the Border Guard to operate efficiently along the length of the wall.

"A second contributing factor is the army's ability to maintain freedom of action throughout the entire West Bank. Small, mobile forces are able at any time to go in to extract wanted men and weapons from the area, based on information provided by the Shin Bet and military intelligence.

"A third important step that is now bearing fruit is reflected in the army's treatment of the civil base for operations, which involves dealing with charitable associations, their relations with foreign bodies, and controlling the influx of money.

"The fourth step, which is still only beginning, is the attempt to separate the civilian public from operations, which means opening checkpoints and offering certain facilities. The Palestinian public is exhausted after four years of a brutal war of attrition.

"But everything mentioned above could be turned upside down at any moment because the Intifada is not over yet."

As the controversy in Israel heats up over the ability of the military to achieve security, there are others who believe that security is a sense that is born inside the individual. This sort of security can only be achieved through a just, comprehensive political solution that will leave all parties satisfied.

To follow this debate and others, please visit the website of Arabs Against Discrimination ( www.aad-online.org ).