Testing the waters

The new cabinet may represent a triumph for the NDPs modernisers but they have yet to consolidate their position, write Gamal Essam El-Din and Dina Ezzat

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"I believe that we are in a transitional stage. It is a stage in which we are moving away from the ruling National Democratic Party old guard and towards the vision proposed by the party's younger generation," said one well-placed source.

But most agree that whether the modernisers will prevail ultimately depends on the performance of the new government, particularly in the next few months.

"This new government knows it will have to resign in October 2005 with presidential and parliamentary elections. For it to be re-sworn in with the same -- or similar -- combination of young faces it will have to do very well during the coming 15 months," said another source.

Doing "very well" would certainly add to the cards held by the reformist camp within the NDP, given that "it is an open secret that many of the new names, including that of the prime minister, were supported by Gamal Mubarak (head of the NDP Policies Committee).

Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif is himself a Gamal Mubarak associate, a member of the team that accompanied Gamal Mubarak during his public relations trip to America in June 2003. And eight new cabinet ministers are also members of the Policies Committee.

Topping the list is Mahmoud Mohieddin, assigned the newly-formed Ministry of Investment Development. Seven other portfolios -- Communications, Administrative Development, Youth, Transport, the recently merged Trade and Industry, Tourism, and Education -- went to Tareq Kamel, Ahmed Darwish, Anas El-Fiqi, Essam Sharaf, Rashid Mohamed Rashid, Ahmed El-Maghrabi and Ahmed Moussa respectively. Rashid, a businessman, is also a board member of Gamal Mubarak's Future Generation Foundation and of the US-Egypt Business Council. Gamal Mubarak used to be a spokesman for the latter.

While some are optimistic about the new government's ability to deliver and others certain of failure, many remain undecided, perplexed by the preponderance of hitherto unknown figures now presiding over ministries.

"We will see. We do not know much about many of the new ministers," said one civil servant, who added that people need time to judge.

An air of optimism at least appears to prevail in business and liberal circles, where the new government is widely expected to introduce a new raft of economic reforms. This, argue many, is essential in attracting foreign direct investments and finalising the much touted free trade agreement with the US.

Concern, on the other hand, has been expressed in political quarters, particularly those on the Left, that this business-oriented government will fail to meet the pressing socio-economic needs of the vast majority of the population. It lacks, say critics, the balanced make- up that is necessary to protect the interests of the poor and underprivileged.

In the week since Ahmed Nazif, the 52-year old minister of communication and information technology in the outgoing Atef Ebeid government, was appointed prime minister, the pros and cons of the move have been endlessly debated, in the pages of the press and elsewhere.

"Nazif and his team know by now that the continuity of the government will depend a great deal on its success in balancing the demands of those who call for further and faster economic reforms and the legitimate demands of those who want an end to price hikes and deteriorating public services," says the source. "The government will have to be very careful in the measures it undertakes and their impact on people. The president has made it clear to Nazif that the interests of the poor is a red line."

A programme of action for this government is currently being drafted by its members in close consultation with the Policies Committee of the NDP.

"Yes, this is an indication that the old guard is losing influence to the modernisers. Most of the senior figures from the old guard are out of both government and the wider ruling circle while those who are still around have had their wings clipped," commented an informed source who asked for his name to be withheld.

With Safwat El-Sherif, the secretary-general of the NDP and former minister of information, farmed out to the generally ineffective Shura Council this government is already free, many commentators believe, of much of the influence of the old guard.

"One should notice that it is the relatively liberal Mamdouh El-Beltagui who has been given the information portfolio. Prior to being minister of tourism, El-Beltagui was head of the State Information Service, a position in which his liberal approach often antagonised El-Sherif," commented a source close to the NDP.

"True, Kamal El-Shazli is still on board but you cannot ignore that his powers have shrunk significantly," said the commentator.

El-Shazli, assistant secretary-general and organisational secretary of the NDP, has been minister of state for parliamentary affairs since 1993. For 11 years his portfolio covered both Parliament and the Shura Council. Now he is responsible for Parliament, with the Shura Council portfolio assigned to Mufid Shehab, a university professor and former minister of higher education. "Shehab, who now shares El- Shazli's portfolio is someone that El-Shazli used to snub as an over eloquent fancy academic."

Like many of the new comers -- whose ages range from the late 30s to early 50s -- he is an associate of Gamal Mubarak who, since being assigned the NDP Policies Committee in 2002, has been in overt confrontation -- that at times amounted to clashes -- with the old guard.

After joining the NDP in 2000 Gamal initiated a long-term scheme to give the ruling party a face-lift, a project that gained momentum following the party's poor performance in the parliamentary elections under the leadership of El-Sherif, El-Shazli and outgoing Minister of Agriculture Youssef Wali, then the secretary-general of the party.

The NDPs modernisers have scored a triumph. Whether they will be able to consolidate their position depends on the government's performance in the coming months. If it gets off up and running many believe that by next September yet more of the old guard will be removed. "But if the president finds disturbing signs he might have to reconsider plans being proposed in relation to the top position in the NDP," a source said.

There is a strong campaign among the reformers to elbow El-Sherif out of his NDP post and introduce a more appealing figure.