Security first

Iraq's promised democracy is deferred while interim premier Allawi acts to defeat 'the forces of evil', writes Salah Hemeid

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A US soldier rushes to the scene of a huge car bomb explosion in Baghdad, detonated by a suicide attacker on Wednesday near the British Embassy and the headquarters of the interim Iraqi government

From the day the new Iraqi government was sworn in, there has been speculation as to whether it will be able to reestablish stability and security. Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has made it clear that security would be his chief priority.

Last week, he announced the introduction of emergency measures that would allow him to impose curfews, ban groups he considered seditious and order the detention of people suspected of threatening security. On 15 July he announced the establishment of an Iraqi security service to "uproot" terrorist groups in his country.

Allawi also suggested that he may reinstate capital punishment, which was abolished by former Civil Administrator Paul Bremer. "We are determined to bring down all the hurdles that stand in the way of our democracy," the prime minister told a press conference in Baghdad this week. He said he would fight "to defeat our enemies, the forces of evil".

But the violence has continued to escalate relentlessly, indicating that the new government's honeymoon in power might not last long. Dozens of Iraqis, including security and top government officials, were killed this week in car bombs or firefights in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities.

The violence came after a United States airstrike -- authorised by Allawi -- hit alleged hideouts in Fallujah of Al- Qaeda militants, killing 14 people. Following the raid, an Islamic militant group believed to be close to terror suspect Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi offered a reward of $280,000 for Allawi's head if he does not step down and leave Iraq.

Meanwhile, the newly established security forces are flooding the streets, manning checkpoints and conducting high- profile raids on criminal gangs in Baghdad and other major cities. Iraqi soldiers are combing through palm groves and houses in search of weapons caches. One vanguard unit of the new Iraqi National Guard raided two neighbourhoods in Baghdad earlier this month, arresting some 500 criminals who were accused of robbery, abduction and smuggling.

Courts have been put on 24-hour duty to handle the huge intake of prisoners in the crackdown. In one raid this week, security men netted 15 people suspected of being members of Al-Qaeda and its splinter groups. Iraqi Minister of Human Rights Bukhtayar Amin revealed that among the detainees were Syrians, Libyans, Egyptians, Jordanians and Iranians.

Allawi is expected to announce an amnesty for insurgents soon, though he has not yet announced when. He has specified, however, that this will neither include murderers nor kidnappers, adding that the offer for those who lay down their weapons will only last a short time. The move is apparently designed to lure disgruntled former Baathists who are believed to be carrying out some of the attacks against the government's troops, while security forces can continue to track down foreign militants.

Allawi has so far scored few concrete successes, while the political challenges facing his government remain tremendous. For the past year, Iraqi politicians have consistently blamed the deterioration in security on Bremer, and ultimately maintained that the Interim Governing Council failed because of his veto power.

Now, however, with a theoretically sovereign government in power, Allawi can no longer make such excuses, and Iraqis will be impatient with the failure of his government to meet their expectations and impose order.

Many analysts believe that the prime minister has so far demonstrated authority, and proved himself to be willing to deal with Iraq's security problems, placing a particular emphasis on terrorism.

Since Allawi became prime minister, stories circulating in the streets of Baghdad include reports that he ordered two suspected insurgents shot in front of him, shot seven captive terrorists himself and personally chopped off the hand of a suspect with an axe.

The Australian newspaper The Age reported last week that two witnesses saw Allawi shoot seven suspected insurgents as his American bodyguards looked on. The prime minister categorically denied the claim. Newsweek quoted US officials as privately saying that he may actually have planted the stories about summary executions as part of a psychological smoke-and-mirrors game. Iraqi TV has been showing footage of exultant policemen firing their guns into the air as they leave the scene of a roundup.

Analysts did, however, warn that there would be an increase in violence following the transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis. Insurgents have vowed to fight Allawi's government and force the US-led international forces to leave Iraq. Over the past 15 months, militants have used kidnappings, car bombs, sabotage and other attacks to try and destabilise the country and push out coalition troops. Some 3,000 Iraqis have been killed in such attacks.

In an effort to rally support for his government, Allawi embarked on a regional tour on Monday. It is expected that he will use this tour to request assistance in security operations. On Monday he arrived in Amman, where King Abdullah II promised Jordan's help in building and training a sovereign Iraqi army. Later he flew to Cairo, where he was expected to make a similar request to the Egyptian leadership. Allawi is scheduled to visit Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. It is highly unlikely, however, that these countries will send their own troops to police Iraq.

For now, it seems that peace, stability and security might have to wait for the creation of a legitimate government in Baghdad, and until foreign troops disappear from its streets. Such a government can only come through general elections for a representative council, set to take place by 31 January 2005. That would indeed be a moment worth celebrating, and any move to delay it would only result in disillusionment and further chaos.