US foreign policy change

By Ali El-Shalakany

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Irrespective of who wins the presidential elections on 2 November, I expect US foreign policy to change. The change will not be due to the declared policies of President Bush or of Senator Kerry, but the fundamental interests of the US ruling establishment. The Bush administration's foreign policy has led to deterioration in the relations of the US with the world, economically, politically and militarily.

The US presidential campaign has shown that the US involvement in Iraq is the most important foreign policy issue. This is where I expect that the first important change in policy will happen.

The real driving force for the change are the interests of US ruling establishment. I refer to only one of these interests, which is, oil. President Bush went to Iraq to control its oil reserve. But several fatal political mistakes committed by his administration stamped the US forces as hated occupiers. This created an alliance between the several currents of popular resistance which inevitably included Al- Qaeda elements.

The Bush administration is using force in an attempt to quell popular resistance. The resistance will continue because the number of insurgents is unlimited. The experience of colonial powers since the end of the WWII has shown that the altered balance of fire power between resistance and the occupation army has made the cost of foreign occupation prohibitive. One weapon carried by a sole insurgent can destroy a tank or bring down a plane. The colonial era ended and other means for safe-guarding economic interests were found.

To the lessons of the 20th Century, oil is an inflammable commodity. A foreign occupying force cannot secure its supply. Only a national government with a minimum of popular support can ensure its uninterrupted supply.

Thus, at one time, sooner than expected by the present administration, US forces will have to quit Iraq. A fixed date for their departure in the near future is the first serious step out of the Iraqi quagmire. This is also an opportunity for Egyptian diplomacy to play a positive international role.