The waiting game

By Ali El-Shalakany

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The International Conference on Iraq, to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh on 22 and 23 November, will see Egyptian diplomacy facing one of the most difficult challenges in its history.

The declared aim of the conference is to help secure the success of Iraq's January elections. The timing of the meeting, though, is likely to compound the difficulties of the task it has set itself since by 22 November two interrelated events will have taken place the results of which will impact profoundly on the attitudes of the conference participants.

The first of these is the US presidential election. It is still an open question who will win. It is a close race and thousands of lawyers are already standing by to manage the legal disputes expected to arise, and which may well continue up to the date of the conference.

The second event is the planned US attack on Falluja, which will probably be launched before the US goes to the polls. It is far from certain that any assessment of its long term effect will be possible before the conference convenes.

Certainly the attack on Falluja will be milked for all its electoral worth. President Bush will attempt to emphasise that he is a decisive leader in the battle against terrorism. And the American request that British troops be moved from the south, in order to free up US soldiers for the assault, will be used to highlight the fact that America is not isolated in its policy on Iraq. In agreeing to the request Tony Blair has been roundly criticised for risking British soldiers lives to help the Bush campaign, with critics asking why the Americans need 860 British soldiers when they have 135,000 of their own deployed in Iraq.

Tellingly, the Kerry campaign has repeatedly accused the current administration of isolating the US from its allies. Indeed, it was only after Senator Kerry had said that, should he be elected, he would call for an international conference on Iraq that Colin Powell made the same call.

There are four scenarios that could be in place before the conference opens: either Bush or Kerry will be president, and the assault on Falluja will have failed, or it will have succeeded. Whichever one of the four it is will have a decisive effect on negotiations at the conference.

Egyptian diplomacy can only play a difficult waiting game until events unfold.