Arafat's absence

By Salama A Salama

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Yasser Arafat's emergence from three years of confinement in Ramallah for treatment abroad can have come as no surprise, except perhaps to those who have witnessed his 40-year struggle. Such witnesses have, after all, become accustomed to seeing Arafat, and only Arafat, as the face of the Palestinian struggle, in victory as much as in defeat.

Those who identify the Palestinian people with Arafat find it hard to believe that a moment can come when the leader is separated from the people by illness or by death. And such people are bound to panic rather than think ahead.

Arafat maintained his dominance till the very last minute, keeping hold of all the threads of power. Every decision had to be passed by him, and he never planned for what might happen in his absence. He was deft in maintaining control, and schemed to prevent opponents from trying to unseat him by either force or guile. He is not the only Arab leader to act in such a way.

The crisis surfacing in Arafat's absence -- for medical treatment the outcome of which is yet unsure -- could cause immeasurable damage. The Palestinian people have not been prepared for such an eventuality -- like most Arab countries have no clue as to what might come next. Call it fatalism, but Arab policy-makers are seldom big on forward thinking.

The only people who prepared for this moment, who spent years preparing for it and waited impatiently for it to come -- they even accelerated it by keeping Arafat incarcerated -- are the US and Israel. Israel followed up on Arafat's medical condition minute by minute. It threatened more than once to get rid of Arafat by whatever means and the Americans played along.

Israel has refused to unambiguously commit itself to allowing Arafat's return following his treatment in Paris, retaining room for manoeuvre. Nor would I be inclined to believe Israeli or American promises -- past experience shows they are easier to break than to give. Israel is likely to use Arafat's absence to sow sedition among Palestinians, rearranging the scene in a way that suits its own purposes. Indeed, negotiations may soon be offered to the Palestinian, though on condition of Arafat being excluded.

Although a power sharing formula, between Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qurei, was stitched together after Arafat's departure Palestinian leaders cannot afford to ignore the question of what will happen if Arafat's absence lasts months -- or forever. With Arafat's grip on power loosening the unity Palestinians have struggled hard to maintain is in danger of disintegrating. The conflicts among the security services and between Arafat's close associates are not yet over. Egypt's efforts to unify the Palestinian factions have failed. Attempts to reconcile the PLO and Hamas -- the latter is now calling for a unified Palestinian leadership -- have gone nowhere.

Some Palestinian forces may try to maintain the status quo in the hope that Arafat returns before rivalries flare up. But what the Palestinians really need is to consolidate existing institutions and carry out the political reforms long demanded which Arafat promised, and failed, to implement.

It is time to start putting the Palestinian house in order. It would be a disaster should the Arafat era close without the Palestinians agreeing on even a minimum of cohesion and unity. The Palestinians must stick together in order to pursue their struggle for freedom and independence.