Moderately concerned

Palestinian reactions to Arafat's illness have been muted, writes Khaled Amayreh in the West Bank

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Leaving Ramallah for the first time since Israel laid siege to his headquarters in the West Bank city, Arafat departs to Paris for treatment of a serious, but hitherto mysterious illness

News of Yasser Arafat's health crisis drew moderate reactions in the streets of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Most Palestinians showed psychological willingness to accept the eventuality of his death when it happens.

This doesn't necessarily reflect a lack of respect for the man who deservedly earned the title "Mr Palestine" for his role in leading the Palestinian national struggle for 40 years. Indeed, while most Palestinians wished Arafat well and prayed for his speedy recovery, Palestinian population centres in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were generally calm and the massive solidarity marches that one would expect in such circumstances did not materialise. While some small marches were organised in Ramallah and Gaza, they lacked both spontaneity and zeal.

There are many reasons for the low-key reactions. Like Muslims elsewhere, most Palestinians are fasting. The holy month of Ramadan instills in the heart and minds of believers a certain degree of serenity and reflection. Thus many feel that an exaggerated show of identification with Arafat would be inconsistent with the spirit of the holy month.

Moreover, the increasingly religious Palestinian public realises that Arafat, like anyone else, must die sooner or later, and that it would be utterly inappropriate to act "out of proportion" in reaction to the Palestinian leader's current health ordeal, just as it would to his ultimate demise.

When a Hebron taxi driver was asked what he would do if and when Arafat died, he simply said, "well, maybe I will die before him."

Another Palestinian, a shopkeeper, answered the same question by reciting a Qur'anic verse: "When their time comes, they shall die, not a moment earlier, not a moment later."

However, it is clear that the measured expression of concern at Arafat's state of health has to do with more than just the Islamic serenity in the face of death. Palestinian society is today thoroughly tormented and exhausted after more than four years of sustained Israeli onslaught. Palestinians, almost all of whom have lost friends, relatives and homes, are simply too tired to have their hearts broken by the prospect of the disabling illness or death of a man whom they admire and respect, but who is not an intimate relation.

At the official level, however, the picture is entirely different. Arafat's serious illness has effectively sent the entire Palestinian Authority (PA) apparatus into a tailspin. This was only to be expected, of course, since Arafat had always held all the reins, taken all the important decisions and, until recently, controlled all the money.

When Arafat's illness was first announced it was downplayed in official circles, but before long more serious warning bells were ringing, with some PA and PLO leaders talking, albeit hesitantly, of an emergency situation and of the need to keep the PA functioning even in Arafat's absence.

Arafat has always refused to appoint a deputy or "heir apparent", ostensibly due to his "autocratic psychology" and reluctance to take his own advancing years into consideration. But another reason may be that the veteran PLO leader never really trusted anybody, one close Arafat confidant told Al-Ahram Weekly.

This is not to say that chaos will be inevitable should Arafat die or be incapacitated by illness.

This week, Mahmoud Abbas, the former PA prime minister, and secretary-general of the PLO Executive Committee, presided over an emergency session of the PA National Security Council called with a view to keeping things under control during Arafat's illness.

However, Abbas is not an elected official and his standing at the helm of the PA, in case of Arafat's death, is likely to be challenged. In fact, Abbas is relatively unpopular with Palestinians, both in the diaspora, and in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It would certainly be highly premature to label him the next Palestinian leader. If Arafat is to have successor, his identity will be decided by elections. However, this will almost certainly be easier said than done, since orderly and transparent elections cannot be organised without Israeli consent.

The current situation does, however, have some benefits. Assuming that Arafat will recover from his illness, the next few weeks provide the PA leadership with a much- needed opportunity to prepare for a smooth transition of power when the time does finally come. The big question is whether the PA hierarchy will be wise enough to use this opportunity.