Hamas eyes its future role

The Islamist resistance is set to become more mainstream in any post-Arafat dispensation, reports Khaled Amayreh

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Hamas has joined other Palestinian political factions in wishing a speedy recovery to ailing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who still enjoys widespread respect among most Palestinians, including the powerful Islamist camp.

Earlier this week Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal sent a telegram to Arafat wishing him well and assuring him Hamas would never compromise Palestinian national unity.

But pleasantries aside, Hamas is already preparing for the post-Arafat era, fearing that his ability to effectively lead will be compromised by ill-health.

Hamas realises, as does the rest of the Palestinian political class, that the political diminution of Arafat, and certainly his death, signals the end of an era, with all the uncertainty that that involves.

And it is the prospect of uncertainty that is forcing the movement to think in a more proactive manner and not leave anything to chance.

Hamas has called for a unified national leadership to head the Palestinian struggle in the absence of Arafat. This would lessen the dangers inherent in potential power struggles, especially within the ranks of the heterogeneous Fatah movement, the components of which have always been kept together by Arafat, often through a combination of financial appeasement and a policy of divide and rule.

Ismael Haniyyeh, one of Hamas' most respected leaders in Gaza, believes that a collective leadership in the interim period is less an option than a national imperative: "We will not allow chaos or disunity and the best way to realise that is by forming a united national leadership that will lead the Palestinian people to a safe harbour and prepare for elections in which all Palestinians participate."

Haniyyeh expressed apprehension that Israel might try to "fish in troubled waters" by intervening in the process to select Arafat's successor.

"We are aware that the Zionists will be trying to promote chaos but will not allow them to achieve their goals, either on the resistance or political level," he said.

It is doubtful, though, that Fatah's old guard, including the former and current PA premiers, Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qurei, or the heads of the various security agencies would welcome the possibility of a collective national leadership.

Most veteran Fatah leaders will be reluctant to sacrifice the preeminence of the organisation just to demonstrate goodwill towards the Islamists, their political and ideological rivals. And many Fatah leaders have amassed personal fortunes the sources of which they are unlikely to want probed.

Nor will a greater Hamas role be to the taste of those Fatah moderates more interested in appeasing the international community, especially the US, than answering to the Palestinian public, much of which is represented by the Islamist camp. Mainstream leaders of Fatah also realise that including Hamas in a collective leadership would automatically lead to a radicalisation of the overall Palestinian position vis-ˆ-vis the peace process and might enable Israel to blame its intransigence and foot-dragging on Palestinian "extremism".

For its part Hamas is unlikely to want to court the "problematic" label while the post- Arafat political discourse is taking shape.

"I think Hamas is a mature political movement. It has learned the lessons of the past. I am not worried a bit about Hamas playing a negative or destabilising role in the Palestinian struggle," said Atef Odwan, professor of political science at the Islamic University of Gaza.

Odwan, an expert on Hamas, said the movement "is steadily becoming mainstream. Nobody, not even the Americans and the Israelis, can exclude Hamas from any future political equation."

One Hamas official in Hebron intimated to Al-Ahram Weekly that Hamas would act more cautiously after Arafat: "We will be more flexible in accommodating other views and we will not allow ideological rigidity to impede progress towards national unity."

He pointed out that Hamas will not try to replace Fatah.

"We read the international map carefully and will not allow Hamas' own considerations, however legitimate and attractive, to override our people's interests."

Pressed to elaborate the Hamas leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the organisation would prefer to be in a position to "influence" any future Palestinian leadership than assume leadership itself.

Some of Hamas' most ardent opponents, including Arafat advisors Mohamed Rashid, Tayyeb Abdel-Rahim and Hakam Bala'awi will be weakened by Arafat's possible absence, a situation that is likely to see Hamas consolidate its move towards the Palestinian political mainstream.