'Not about Arafat, but about the Palestinians'

YTPME

Leading Palestian political figures speak to Sherine Bahaa and Rasha Saad of the ripple effects of Arafat's health scare

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"FIRST we have to confirm Arafat's absence is due to his illness. I do not believe that any human being, any leader even, is indispensable. There are always capable people who can stand up in time of need. I am not worried about our current situation, and I insist that the absence of Abu Ammar is not a disaster. We are not that desperate.

"The alternative to Arafat is not something abstract. We have our Legislative Council and a number of political institutions. These institutions should decide on the practical procedure to be adopted. I believe a unanimous decision would provide the best way forward."

Haidar Abdul-Shafi

"ARAFAT has multiple roles. Symbolically, he is an embodiment of national identity. He also has a historical and a revolutionary role. These may all sound very abstract, but they are what give him credibility and legitimacy among his people, and thus the ability to take difficult decisions.

"In practical terms, he is the chairman of the PLO executive and president of the Palestinian Authority. So these functional administrative roles have to be filled in the interim by the second-in command. The secretary-general of the PLO executive, Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) is the most appropriate person to do this. Our other executive bodies, the cabinet, ministries, and civil services will also continue to function. The Legislative Council will function to legislate, and the National Security Council will also continue to fulfil its role. In short, the Palestinians are well-positioned, structurally, institutionally and legally, as well as in terms of relations between the different factions, to continue to carry out the functions of the State at all levels and in all fields of activity without suffering any functional breakdown or an outbreak of political rivalry.

"I think it would be very difficult to find someone to replace Arafat. I can't see anyone of his stature on the horizon. His different roles will be taken up by different people in the long term. But the fact that Arafat was capable of taking secret decisions, making compromises and then bringing his supporters to approve his decision is evidence of his standing.

"So far, we have not noticed much change: it is as if he had simply left on one of his trips. The system will remain as it is. Any major changes would have to be brought about as a result of free and fair elections, democratically and peacefully. We should press ahead with our action plan, whether in the PNC or in the Executive Council, to prepare for and carry out elections, first for local government, and then for the Legislative Council. It does not matter who is elected, whether they be members of the old guard or the new grassroots. They would have come through a democratic process and will have the authority of the law behind them."

Hanan Ashrawi

"THE Palestinian political apparatus is much more complicated than that of its Arab neighbours.

In the Arab countries, there is an absence of democracy, law and human rights. Unfortunately, we in the Arab world do not have the institution of the State in the real sense of the word; we only have the form and the name.

"In the case of Palestine, things are more complicated for a number of reasons. On the simplest most concrete level, the past four years have seen deliberate moves by the occupiers to destroy everything that relates to the PA. But that is not the only problem. Arafat himself has always occupied a multiplicity of posts and roles. Thus, he is simultaneously president of the Palestinian Authority, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, chairman of the PLO Executive Committee, chairman of the Fatah Revolutionary Committee and chairman of the Fatah Central Committee. There is a law that regulates issues of succession in each of these cases. Within the PLO, for instance, Arafat would be replaced by the head of Fatah, and in case of his death, not his absence, the head of the Palestinian Legislative Council would take over. However, to date we are not talking about a "leadership vacuum" in the classical sense of the word, but rather about the possible absence of a man whose greatest contribution was possibly his political charisma.

"Now we are preparing for elections to the Palestinian Authority. It was the occupation that had put the electoral process on hold, even though it had not physically prevented them from being held. Occupation does not allow free movement from one village to another. Moreover, it makes it impossible to guarantee fairness and transparency. Even now, the PA cannot convene unless the occupation forces allow them to, by granting them the required licences and permits.

"Yet I believe, that in spite of all the divisions and differences among the Palestinians, the past few days have re- enforced our national consensus.

"The Palestinians will not accept the Israeli-American way of solving our problems. We support the laws of the Palestinian political system -- we have a long history in this regard. We also have a strong, well-established civil society. That is why we cannot accept the American 'Republican option.'"

Raji Sourani

"THE departure of Arafat for treatment has thrown the Palestinian people into disarray. We feel a sense of insecurity, which will hopefully be only temporary. The first positive news about his health has already improved our morale a bit.

"We have the PLO and the High Central Committee of Fatah. These two Palestinian institutions are the only ones legally capable of choosing who will succeed Arafat in the case of an emergency.

"Rumours about internal strife are ripe. They are obviously being put about by the Israelis, who are intent on destabilising the Palestinian people. I believe real reform would mean getting rid of the occupation. The ongoing siege of the territories, the demolition of thousands of houses, the uprooting of trees and farms and soaring unemployment rates, are all obstacles to reform. To speak of reform in our current situation is a farce. In the face of the occupation, the Palestinians have one unified strategy: resistance.

"We do not have a problem regarding national unity. We have a national authority, but Israeli premier Ariel Sharon has done all he can to marginalise it, announcing that he had no partner for talks and putting Arafat under siege for almost two years now. Yet still I must insist: we do not have a problem with national unity. The problem remains the occupation."

Farouk Qaddoumi

"THERE was already a problem in the Palestinian political system before Arafat was taken ill. There was a crisis which had impacted the legitimacy of the structures. Many of the PLO structures were set up a very long time ago, and have not been modernised in any way. But the most acute problem is the fact that there have been no elections to the Legislative Council since 1996.

"For a Palestinian government to represent the Palestinian people fairly it has to be elected democratically. That's why the only way to solve this crisis is to have free democratic elections. And this cannot happen unless that process is backed by the international community. Meanwhile, we are currently having meetings of the Palestinian national forces, which are being attended by all political groups without exception. A joint decision has been reached that we must work for the establishment of an interim unified leadership, one that will include everybody, and which can ensure that all political decisions taken are in line with the national consensus.

"Even if Arafat comes back, he will still have to participate in the elections which we are currently preparing for. The registration process is just coming to a close now. I do not think that there can be any long-term legitimate leadership without free democratic elections."

Mustafa Barghouti

"THE most significant political message that has emerged during Arafat's enforced absence for medical reasons is that the Palestinian institutions are quite capable of assuming full responsibility for the Palestinian political struggle.

"In this sense, Arafat's absence deprives us of a leader, a commander and a symbol. But we still have our political institutions and our executive bodies. Nor are we lacking in people to carry out the president's functions in his absence, since we have both Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), secretary- general of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation's (PLO) Executive Committee, who can step into these roles. The talk now [in case Arafat should pass away] is not about who will succeed Arafat, but how the Palestinian political institutions will survive and continue with their work.

"For myself, I do not foresee any threat to the political institutions. On the contrary, maybe the sharing of power will give new wings to the political movement and help us develop our institutions' potential.

"Despite all the faults that can rightly be attributed to the Palestinian side, the Israeli occupation remains the main obstacle to any serious political development or reform.

"The Palestinian political system is applied by humans, and humans can make mistakes. But as long as one side continues to harbour criminals and murderers, the Palestinian people on the other side will carry on their struggle against occupation.

"At present, the Palestinian people are showing remarkable unity and there has been no civil strife. I do not believe that this is just a temporary achievement, and that for two reasons.

"First, contrary to expectations, the presence of Arafat sometimes leads us to depend totally on a single man, in a way that prevents Palestinians from confronting their own faults honestly. His absence may therefore help them learn how to correct their errors and weaknesses for themselves.

"Secondly, I believe that nearly all Palestinians understand that if we fight with each other, there will be no winner: the only one who will benefit is Israel. Even the worst, most corrupt elements have an interest in maintaining a "peaceful" occupation, since they can only continue to enjoy the wealth they have amassed for as long as the occupation exists.

"Nor do the Palestinian political powers have an interest in civil conflict, because none of them can hope to take power by a coup in a context determined by the Israeli occupation and the US's plans for the region as a whole. Thus the present balance is likely to persist, even if our political system is still incomplete, and disputes between ourselves occasionally take a violent form.

"Israel does not like Arafat. They would like to see him suffer the same fate they wish upon the entire Palestinian people. For Israel is opposed to our existence, both physically and politically.

"Sharon's pull-out plan is a unilateral withdrawal. Contrary to his claims, it has nothing to do with the presence or absence of Arafat. It is simply false to claim that Arafat is an obstacle to peace. If Sharon was looking for a different partner, he had the chance when Abu Mazen headed the government. But instead, Sharon was the main factor which brought Abu Mazen's government down. For it is Sharon who has no interest in finding a partner for peace. Meanwhile, he continues finalising his disengagement plan, in order to avoid a comprehensive political peace settlement with the Palestinians."

Hassan Asfour

"ARAFAT is a symbol of the Palestinian cause. He has been the mainspring of Palestinian unity and struggle for some 40 years. [Despite his illness], his presence is still a necessity, and is in the national interest of all the Palestinian political powers.

"What has happened since he was forced to leave the country proves that Palestinians take the institutions which Arafat himself established seriously. The last two weeks have provided living proof of the unity of the Palestinians. I do not believe that there will be internal strife or a collapse of the PNA institutions, because the idea of independence and freedom is rooted in our hearts and blood.

"The Palestinian priority is to end the occupation and end the sufferings of our people, not to argue over how we should share the cake.

Arafat is now recovering. He is in good shape and will soon return to head the PA and PLO institutions. Since Sunday, he has begun to get back to something like a normal life, and he has been in touch with both French President Jacques Chirac and with the Palestinian leadership."

Jibril Al-Rajoub

"HAMAS wishes Arafat a speedy recovery in what are very difficult circumstances for him.

Since Arafat was taken ill, a positive mood has prevailed among the Palestinian powers, and this reflects a healthy atmosphere in the country. We should not let ourselves sink in such difficult moments, or surrender to our emotions. We have to surpass these moments and think of the future for the Palestinian struggle and for our leadership. We need to propose practical steps to correct the failings of Palestinian politics over the last several years.

"As for the prospects of the Palestinian cause, we believe it is vital to improve the operation of the Palestinian political institutions.

"No one is immortal. If we cannot work to make these changes through the framework of the PLO and its institutions, the situation will be destabilised, and Arafat's illness may breed an unhealthy atmosphere. His illness confronts the Palestinians with the need to institutionalise our political action and go beyond relying on one person, no matter how symbolic that person is.

"Arafat's sudden illness has caused great anticipation and anxiety among all Palestinians. The future is still not clear, and so we cannot say anything definite: everyone is just waiting and watching.

"Hamas does not see its existence and impact as linked to the presence or absence of any one figure. Hamas is an institutional movement that has its own declared agenda. It deals with the different circumstances it encounters in line with its vision. This does not mean that things will be easy, but that the movement will always be able to respond to any developments.

"No figure in the Palestinian political arena, no matter how powerful he or she may be, can deal with Hamas by confronting us or sidelining us. Confrontation has never lead to a practical solutions, but on the contrary has only increased Hamas's power.

"When in the past some people in the Palestinian Authority may have had certain Hamas leaders detained in an attempt to suppress the movement, those people are now gone, and the movement has survived. Thus we can say that, regardless of who may be nominated to succeed Arafat, no one can ignore the fact that Hamas has become a real power in the Palestinian political arena.

"Meanwhile, Hamas is not just observing developments in the political arena, but is reacting positively to the current situation. Since the announcement of Arafat's sudden illness, Hamas has been in contact with the different Palestinian leaderships. Khaled Meshaal, chief of the movement's politburo, has phoned many of these leaderships, including Abu Mazen, Qurei and other leaders in both Fatah and the PLO. These contacts were aimed at checking on Arafat's health and discussing how to deal with the coming days, should events take a turn for the worse."

Mohamed Nazal

"THE Palestinians are a politically mature people. They will not allow civil strife to develop among them. Judging by their performance over the last few days since Arafat's departure for France, there has been a smooth transition in the daily conduct of affairs, for which they should be commended. Of course, we do not all share the same political views, but I believe that these differences can be resolved by democratic means. Perhaps this is an opportunity for us to strengthen our national unity, especially once we have been able to hold elections.

"No doubt, Israel and the US will try to cultivate certain Palestinian personalities for new leadership roles, just as the US did with Afghani President Hamid Karzai, and they will act against others who do not toe the line by means of threats, denial of access to financial resources, or branding them as extremists. But even if they succeed in cultivating certain personalities, which is unlikely, these personalities will be rejected by the Palestinians. If these personalities are provided with arms, men and money, and propped up by Israeli and US force, this would only create the environment for civil strife.

"Arafat's illness has provided the Israelis with an opportunity to implement their long-held plans to strike a deal with the Palestinians without Arafat, and on Israeli terms. And that means: in contradiction with international law. That is why they call Arafat "an obstacle". The Israelis hope to find some one in the new leadership who will accept their terms. But they will not find anyone -- at least, no one who has any credibility with the Palestinians.

"Sharon will push for his plans, with or without Arafat, and will continue, with US backing, to ignore the "peace process" in whatever terms it may be presented to him. As Sharon's senior consultant and assistant Dov Weisglass recently explained, Sharon has no intention of accepting a Palestinian state worthy of the name. The inevitable conclusion is that the Israeli occupation will continue; and so will the resistance to it.

"Israel will no doubt put all kinds of obstacles in the way of Arafat returning home, if and when he is once again in good health. But they know that by doing so they will incur the anger of the world, after they declared publicly they would allow him to return home. They also know that he may well be more "dangerous" to them on the outside, touring the world and meeting with its leaders. So it seems most likely that they will confine him to Gaza. The Palestinians will of course welcome him back. And they will also benefit from the experience they have gained in his absence."

Salman Abu Sitta