Impossible questions

By Ezzat Ibrahim

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The American election results brings the Middle East to a new turn in the road, one filled with so many contradictions and anomalies that it will probably take a logarithmic equation to figure out US policy towards the region.

Of course, we can wager on one constant, which is Washington's continued support for Sharon and his unilateral disengagement plan from Gaza. There will be no question of this recently concocted plan leading back to the roadmap given the paltry level of concessions Israel is prepared to make, and Washington's assurances to back Israel in this regard.

We can also expect the new Bush administration to bide its time before launching any new talks over the Palestinian question, as it will want to assess the stability of the leadership that succeeds Arafat and test its maneuverability and its ability to achieve a Palestinian national consensus.

Over recent months the incumbent Republican administration has relaxed its drive towards democratic transition, contenting itself with pledges from pro-American governments to pursue "gradual" reforms. This, too, is a trend that will continue in light of the absence in the region of strong liberal movements to spearhead the process of change.

Another factor we can count on is that election year 2008 will affect the equations in the Middle East as of now. This year's election results have further whetted the Republicans' appetite to hold on to power for as long as possible. They will therefore be working to win over more Jewish votes and financial support for the next Republican candidate, as well as to expand their base of support among the fundamental Christian right, which is overwhelmingly pro-Israeli.

Over the past four years the hawks' control over the White House has set the style for Washington's conduct of its foreign policy on the Middle East. Bush has given us nothing to indicate that this will change over the next four years. He has pledged that he will remain committed to spreading the culture of change, human liberty and democracy and to building a new Iraq. The only new phrase he has added to this rhetoric is that it will be in Israel's interest to live alongside a "peaceful" Palestinian state.

As for who is authorized to declare this state and to keep it "peaceful" once it is declared, these are questions that are impossible to answer at the moment.

This week's Soapbox speaker is deputy head of Al-Ahram's foreign desk and a non-resident fellow of the Brookings Institution.