Second term, second wind

By Mohamed Kamal

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Is George W Bush about to change direction during his second term or will he pursue the same kind of policies? Most likely there will be a modicum of change, though it will be a case of more of the old than the new.

The Bush administration is the most ideologically driven in recent history. And there is no reason to believe it will compromise Bush's simple, if deeply held, convictions about foreign policy: the world, Bush believes, is a dangerous place; US military power is necessary to defend American interests, and multilateral institutions are unreliable.

"I earned political capital in the campaign and now I intend to spend it," Bush said following his victory. So we can expect that he will continue to pursue the war on terror, and might escalate hard-line policies towards Syria and Iran. He is not expected to change direction on the Arab- Israeli peace process. Any reaffirmation of commitment to the roadmap and the two state solution should not imply greater involvement to turn the vision into reality. Bush believes the conflict is not yet ripe for resolution and that neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis are willing to make compromises necessary to reach a peace agreement.

His new administration will, however, attempt to find a face-saving exit from Iraq and will be hoping to persuade the international community to shoulder more of the burden. And there is every likelihood that Washington will adopt a more realistic and pragmatic approach to the issue of democracy and reform in the Arab world.

This week's Soapbox speaker is an assistant professor and deputy director of the American Studies Centre at Cairo University.