Tough call
As Palestinians aspire for a better life, many invest their hopes in Abu Mazen. Many others feel he would shatter their cause. Serene Mulham reports from Ramallah
With the polls weighing overwhelmingly in favour of Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), the end of the Palestinian presidential race is fast approaching. So far, according to opinion polls, it appears that Abu Mazen -- who on Tuesday morning referred to Israel as "the Zionist enemy" in response to the killing of at least seven people, including six children, in Gaza -- will sweep 60 to 65 per cent of the votes cast. Mustafa Barghouti lags far behind with predictions at 20 to 25 per cent.
Ramallah's city centre is filled with posters, the majority of which form part of the two leading candidates' election campaigns. There are also signs all over the town urging citizens to cast their ballots, put up by the Palestinian Authority's (PA) Central Elections Committee (CEC). Meanwhile, a general media campaign is being broadcast on the PA's television channel, including advertisements running the slogan "Palestine has an appointment" and interviews with members of the general public in Jerusalem in which they affirm their intention to vote.
In Ramallah, the desire to run Palestinian politics in as democratic a way as possible is also being voiced. "As a Palestinian citizen I have a responsibility to vote. Despite the difficulties which we face, we still have a democracy, and I am proud of that," a young worker, Amin, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Similarly, taxi driver Basil said: "Compare our situation with that faced by many other Arab countries, where it is illegal for opposition parties to even run. No, here in Palestine, we are democratic."
While "there aren't any significant differences between Abu Mazen and Barghouti's political programmes," as street vendor Abdul-Salam told the Weekly, the former has a distinct advantage in that he is the Fatah candidate, and so "he is Arafat's most natural successor." Many express similar views, emphasising their desire to live in "peace. All we want is to have hope for peace and a better life," as plastic flower shop owner Aziz said.
Falasteen openly expressed her support for Abu Mazen. "I want freedom. I want a state. And the only candidate who has any real clout is Mahmoud Abbas, and that's because the Israelis want him in power, rather than anyone else. With him as our leader, we'll be able to reach some kind of peace agreement that will allow us Palestinians to live free from pressure. My fiancé is in prison as we speak... I just want things to be normal."
A commonly held view in Ramallah is that the Fatah candidate is ideal in that he has the will and the international backing that a PA leader would require in order to conduct successful diplomatic negotiations with Israel, the United States and the European Union. Abu Mazen's popularity is still no match for his deceased predecessor -- for, according to Aziz, "after Arafat, Palestine cannot hope for such a great leader to emerge," -- but "he is appropriate for the moment we are passing through now," as restaurant owner Abu Shadi said.
"Historically, this is an interim phase, one that will take us from the Arafat years to a position where we can really start making demands. At this point, we need an experienced diplomat, not a great national hero. Abbas fits that bill very well. And in any case, if he fails to live up to his electoral promises, he won't be strong enough to hold onto power, so there's no harm in giving him a try," Abu Shadi added. "Then, once we have a Palestinian state, we can think again."
"The only way to achieve statehood is through diplomacy," Amin added. "We are not militarily strong enough to battle with Israel and emerge victorious. We simply do not have the means. Abu Mazen is our best bet. With him we will, inshallah, reach a peaceful settlement."
Not everyone in Ramallah is so hopeful though, and many showed profound suspicion of Fatah's project as a whole. For many, the Israeli occupation -- not the individual stance of each Palestinian candidate -- should be the focal point of Palestinian politics. "Israel is not going to change," carpenter Hosni told the Weekly. "So, although I am registered to vote, I will not participate, for I do not believe that any of these candidates will pose a serious challenge to the occupation, which, in the end, is the root of all our problems. Palestine should continue with the armed struggle, not seek diplomatic routes."
Indeed, deadly incursions in Gaza are still taking place on a daily basis. There is no real freedom of movement, even for the candidates who attempt travel from town to town to campaign. Candidates and local government members, including Barghouti, have been arrested in the dozens over the past fortnight. And on Tuesday night, following the unconfirmed kidnapping of two Israeli army soldiers in Ramallah, the occupation forces swept the city for alleged suspects, including the area where the CEC is based, stopped and searched the car of interim President Rohi Fattouh and fired gunshots outside the hotel where members of the United Nations Development Programme's international observers' liaison unit are based.
"The elections won't make anything better," said car parts owner Ismail. The prisoners will stay in prison, the refugees will remain refugees, regardless of who takes power. How can the Palestinians abroad return? If they do then we will outnumber the Israeli population -- they would never allow that to happen. At the end of the day the Israeli government calls the shots, and it's up to us to comply or not. We may wish for things but they won't happen." A dustman in his 50s who requested anonymity added: "We won't get our rights from the Israelis." A shoe shop owner supported this view, as he sighed: "Whatever America wants happens. What will we get from this election? It may look democratic, but none of the candidates mean anything. That's why this election was allowed to happen in the first place. What can the candidates do anyway?"
Mohamed, who works in a shop selling herbs and spices, criticised the very fact that the elections are being held under occupation. "There are no real national or security institutions. More than four million Palestinian refugees cannot vote. So how can these elections be fair? The only right way for us now is the armed struggle." Alaa, who owns a toy shop, concurred: "Have we suffered all this destruction and pain of the past four years of the Intifada so that the new leaders could be satisfied with Israeli diplomacy? It's not that I dislike Abu Mazen himself, but rather that I understand the situation we are facing. None of these leaders is strong enough to bring about real change."
"There needs to be a general boycott of this election," Hosni told the Weekly. "The only real impact we can make is by showing that not one of these candidates counts on our support. Bear in mind that I speak to you as a son of Fatah."
Whatever the turnout, and given that he is most likely to win, the real difficulties awaiting Abbas lie beyond Sunday. He would need to quickly establish his legitimacy on the ground, and all the while maintain his good relations with Israel and the West in order to successfully carry out his electoral promises. Achieving such a delicate balance will be no easy task. "God help him," a group of taxi drivers by Ramallah's main square said.
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