Talking some sense into American ears
Dina Ezzat reports on recent Egyptian attempts to contain an explosive regional situation
Against a backdrop of political deterioration on the Palestinian-Israeli front and alarming signs of worsening political unrest in Iraq, Cairo is considering a limited Arab summit or an Arab presidential tour, or both, to promote at least a semblance of regional stability.
"The situation is very disturbing and if things keep moving in this direction we will soon be living in a highly explosive environment. We need to think of what we can do," commented an informed Egyptian source.
In press statements made this week, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad said President Hosni Mubarak had been contacting several Arab leaders by phone to consult on regional developments. On Monday, Awad said Mubarak had called Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sabah Al-Ahmed.
"The calls concentrated on developments on the Palestinian and Iraqi fronts," Awad said.
Sources tell Al-Ahram Weekly that the talks sounded out the need for a series of high-level Arab meetings that could take place in Sharm El- Sheikh "on a bilateral level between the president" and the top Arab officials he spoke with. President Mubarak may also host a limited high- level Arab meeting to discuss developments and agree on a joint plan of action.
Alternatively, the president may soon visit several Arab capitals to conduct consultations on the regional situation.
The president has been making no secret of his profound concern over the regional situation. In two lengthy interviews he accorded this week to the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) on US TV, and the Saudi satellite TV channel Al- Arabia, President Mubarak expressed his concern not just on developments in Palestine and Iraq, but the situation on the Syrian front.
"We are in a swamp," the president said.
The analysis by the president reflected the huge losses sustained by Arabs in general, especially by the Palestinians, and for that matter the Syrians. Reconciliatory stances taken by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on relations with Israel have been shrugged off by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon who decided to suspend contacts with the Palestinian Authority and to order his army to act with even more force against the Palestinian people.
Syrian attempts to re-initiate talks with Israel have also been brushed aside by Sharon. Meanwhile, Iraq seems to be sitting on a time bomb in view of the determination of the interim government to go ahead with national elections on 30 January despite the violence and an inter-Iraqi civil disagreement on the poll's date.
"I think things could get very complicated if the [Sunnis] insist on boycotting the elections," Mubarak told Al-Arabia.
In both interviews, Mubarak cautioned against moves not fully thought through in handling the Palestinian and Iraqi files. According to Mubarak, a good part of the problems faced in Palestine and Iraq are due to miscalculations and poor judgement. He alluded to several warnings he gave the US over its tolerance of Sharon's intransigence and aggression against the Palestinian people "who are suffocating under occupation and dire living conditions". He also made reference to his repeated warnings to the Americans about invading Iraq.
Mubarak resumed renewing his warnings, especially on Iraq. On air, he told Americans that if they remain stuck in house-to-house warfare, they could end up in a situation as complicated and as degrading "as the one faced by the American army in Somalia" in the 1990s.
The subtle language used by the president in blaming the Americans for the current regional situation was not about finding excuses for Washington's misguided diplomacy in the Middle East. The rationale, diplomatic sources say, is that Cairo hopes to "talk some sense into the Americans".
"We have no intention of getting into a confrontation with the US," commented a senior diplomatic source. "This is out of the question especially since we have a new US administration in office and we want to build bridges with this administration. This is number one." He added, "Secondly, we want to get the Americans to listen to us as their friends in the region. If we start to argue with them they will simply discard what we tell them and we will be the losers."
Egyptian officials say that avoiding a confrontation with Washington has become part and parcel of the diplomatic style of all Arab capitals, not just Cairo. In the end, officials add, Cairo is shaping future moves with "other key Arab capitals".
On Iraq, Cairo is working in coordination with Riyadh -- and hoping to get Damascus on board -- to persuade key representatives of Iraq's Sunnis to accept "a 25 per cent quota" in the post- election government, including the post of prime minister, and "to have a say on all major parts of the constitution", the source said.
"But the main issue we are working on is to persuade the Americans to pull their troops out of the cities to help reduce the level of tension on the ground."
On Palestine, Cairo is desperately trying to persuade the Americans to pressure Israel into meeting a basic demand put forth by the Mahmoud Abbas government: suspend the targeted killings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders. "It is really embarrassing for Abbas that, at the very time he advocates the suspension of militant resistance to the occupation, Sharon gives orders to his army to liquidate the leaders of the resistance movement," said one source. He added that this was damaging to Abbas's credibility among his own people "and will raise question marks over any proposals he makes for a political settlement with the Israelis".
Egypt is also hopeful that it will be sooner rather than later that US President George Bush receives Abbas in the White House and offers him sufficient political and economic backing. "This is what he needs to show to his people, that he is not a defeatist but a leader who can deliver through talks," the official stressed.
Cairo admits it still has a long way to go before it can get the US to agree on any of these positions. It also admits that it needs Arab support on these demands.
Sources say that delivering this short list of "safety valves" is the main focus of Egyptian diplomatic moves during the coming weeks. "This is going to take us right up to the Arab summit," the sources added. The summit begins in Algeria in March.
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