Spinning out of control

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The spin in Washington and London is that Iraq's elections have been an unadulterated success. Indeed, following the failure to find WMD, Washington's initial pretext for going to war, the elections themselves are now being cited as a vindication of America's Iraq policy, or lack thereof.

The facts, as usual, are less palatable than the spin, and the only certainty about the elections is that they will exacerbate the sectarian and ethnic fissures that are already threatening to tear Iraq apart.

Votes were cast along ethnic and sectarian lines. Shia and Kurdish calls demanding self-rule have grown increasingly loud. So what are the likely results?

The danger is that whoever emerges victorious when the final ballot is called will assume they have a mandate regardless of how many fellow Iraqis it excludes. They will protest their own legitimacy, regardless of the fact that the elections were held under occupation and against a backdrop that can only be described as chaotic. And in insisting on their own legitimacy they will de-legitimise any opposition.

And what of Iraq's neighbours? Is Iran likely to accept a non-Shia government? Are Turkey and Syria likely to embrace the idea of Kurdish self-rule, or Sunnis a minority status?

Will the US and Britain welcome an Iraqi government that asks them to end the occupation and leave the country? Will the Shia remain united if they win or will they fall apart over the eventual succession of Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, who is in far from good health?

Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim and Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, the leaders of the Shia election list and frontrunners for the positions of president and prime minister, have made it clear that they will attempt to apply Sharia laws should they win. How will this sit with Iraq's religious and ethnic minorities?

Whatever the gloss Washington and London put on the elections the simple fact is that they raise far more questions than they answer. Should one list emerge with a clear majority, divisions will inevitably deepen. This in turn will produce more armed operations and the already perilous security situation will further deteriorate, tempting Iraq's neighbours to intervene to protect their own interests.

Ignore the euphoria in Washington. Nothing could be more baseless.