Shape of things to come
Mohamed Al-Anwar in Baghdad examines the possible alliances that will emerge following Sunday's election in Iraq
For most Iraqis, it must have been a moment of relief to see the wheels of the political process once again in motion. Despite the occupation and fear of attacks many voted. Yet others stayed away from the vote. Many boycotted the polls, and not without good reason. Even among those who took part in the elections many had wanted them postponed.
Last Sunday Iraqis went to the polls in 18 governorates to select members of the national assembly, municipal councils and the Kurdistan parliament. Earlier, armed groups had warned voters against participating, promising to turn election day into a blood bath though the event turned out less bloody than expected. Tight security, enforced by US and Iraqi forces, was ubiquitous, yet the insurgents succeeded in wounding or killing dozens of Iraqis and security personnel. The tension was palpable in Baghdad where the streets were semi-deserted. Clashes and bombings were reported in Al-Ramadi, Falluja, Heit, Baaquba and Mosul.
Hours before the end of voting the Elections Commission declared that turnout was 73 per cent. The commission later toned down the figure. This is not the first time the Elections Commission, which spent over $250 million on the election process, has had to qualify its statements. It had earlier announced that voters had gone to the polls in Falluja and Ramadi. It later transpired that the former inhabitants of these cities cast their votes in the poorly- equipped, makeshift camps to which they have been relocated.
There is no accurate count as yet of how many of the 13.8 million registered voters in Iraq actually turned up at the polling booths. The turnout is believed to have been high in the south and north of the country and low in central parts. In Baghdad even a 20 per cent turnout would be a remarkable achievement considering the threat of violence.
Iraqis hope for stability and security, for law and order. They want basic amenities, such as electricity and fuel, to again become available. They want national reconciliation to evolve and the spectre of sectarianism banished.
The elections were not free of irregularities. Reports of fraud emerged in a number of areas though this will not automatically hamper the course of political reconciliation. Iyad Allawi has promised to launch a national dialogue to ensure that everyone, even those who boycotted the elections, will take part in drafting the new Iraqi constitution. Many Iraqis, including Adnan Pachachi, head of the Independent Democrats, agree that such a move is in order.
The lists of Allawi, Al-Yawar, the Unified Iraqi Coalition and the Kurdistan Coalition are expected to emerge as the winners. But no one knows what pattern of power sharing will eventually emerge.
According to Chapter 9 of the Law for the Administration of the State the 275-member National Assembly will elect the president and two vice presidents who in turn will name the prime minister. The National Assembly should have completed its drafting of a permanent Iraqi constitution by mid August 2005, and the constitution will be valid once the nation approves of it in a referendum. If two-thirds of the voters in three governorates or more object to the constitution the National Assembly will be disbanded and elections for a new National Assembly held by mid December 2005.
If the permanent constitution is approved at the referendum, elections for a new government are scheduled by mid December 2005. The National Assembly speaker may, however, request more time for drafting the constitution from the Presidential Council, comprising the president and the two vice presidents. The Presidential Council is entitled to give the National Assembly an additional (non-renewable) six-month period to work on the constitution.
Those who boycotted the elections may not be left out in the cold for long. Efforts will be made to co-opt them so as to ensure legitimacy for the new political system. Interim President Ghazi Al-Yawar has already promised to allow those who boycotted the elections to take part in the next government, adding that any political process that does not include representatives of all Iraqis would be doomed. The boycotters, including supporters of young Shia leader Muqutada Al-Sadr supporters and the Association of Muslim Scholars, maintain that elections are worthless so long as the country is under occupation.
There are signs, however, that the boycotters are ready to reconsider, certainly if the new government seriously begins to attempt to phase out the US presence in the country. The government is already making hints. Interior Minister Falah Al-Naqib has said that within 18 months Iraqi forces may no longer need US help. But other thorny issues linger, including the danger of sectarianism and the future of Iraqi-US relations. The politicians may start by approving a semi-truce with US forces until a timetable for withdrawal is in place.
One potential alliance likely to emerge is between the lists of Allawi, Al-Yawar and the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP). The Iraqi Communist Party could also be tempted on board. If this happens it will be the strongest coalition to emerge.
Other possible alliances include that between the supporters of a constitutional monarchy and independent politicians, which may also incorporate the Independent Democrats and some small parties and tribal forces. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Al-Daawa party, the National Iraqi Council, Iraqi Hizbullah, and several Shia figures too might join forces. These groups ran under List 169, said to have the blessing of senior Shia clerics. If the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) decides to join them they would then be in a position to challenge the alliance of Al-Yawar, Allawi and Barzani.
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